2008年汶川M_S8.0地震电离层图像信息长时程演化初探
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摘要
应用改进的图像信息方法,结合DEMETER电磁卫星的电子温度数据,对2008年汶川M_S8.0地震进行了长时程的回溯性预测研究。与以往的地震电离层演化图像提取异常的研究相比,将其回溯的时程延长至震前近11个月,并向震后延长48 d。在长期连续的异常扰动演化图中,出现了两个明显的异常时段,且在震前2个月短期内异常扰动明显减弱并趋于背景值。两个时段出现的异常扰动分布位置及其形态以及持续时间皆不重复,这体现了前兆异常的不易确定,难以定性及定量识别的特点。电离层异常扰动特征的长时程研究,有评估其预测参数和模型可靠性的实际作用,也为应用中国卫星观测数据服务于地震预报等研究积累经验,具有借鉴意义。
In this paper, modified PI method was applied to analyze ionospheric anomalous disturbances of Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake with the data from France DEMETER electromagnetic satellite(electron temperature) for retrospective forecast research. Abnormal pattern evolution characteristics of the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake was carried out. Compared with previous research about extracting seismo-ionospheric abmormal disturbance, the retrospective timescale was extended to nearly 11 months before the earthquake and 48 days after the earthquake. In the long-term continuous evolution patterns, there were two periods of obvious abnormal disturbance. And in the short term before the impending earthquake, abnormal disturbance significantly reduced and tended towards the background. The location, shape and duration of the abnormal disturbances in the two periods were not repeated, which reflects the uncertainty of the precursory anomaly and the difficulty of qualitative analysis and quantitative identification. The long timescale research of precursor anomalous disturbance characteristics of ionosphere in this paper has practical function for evaluating its forecast parameters and model reliability. It could be used to accumulate experience for the application of the satellite data and forecast earthquake.
In this paper, modified PI method was applied to analyze ionospheric anomalous disturbances of Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake with the data from France DEMETER electromagnetic satellite(electron temperature) for retrospective forecast research. Abnormal pattern evolution characteristics of the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake was carried out. Compared with previous research about extracting seismo-ionospheric abmormal disturbance, the retrospective timescale was extended to nearly 11 months before the earthquake and 48 days after the earthquake. In the long-term continuous evolution patterns, there were two periods of obvious abnormal disturbance. And in the short term before the impending earthquake, abnormal disturbance significantly reduced and tended towards the background. The location, shape and duration of the abnormal disturbances in the two periods were not repeated, which reflects the uncertainty of the precursory anomaly and the difficulty of qualitative analysis and quantitative identification. The long timescale research of precursor anomalous disturbance characteristics of ionosphere in this paper has practical function for evaluating its forecast parameters and model reliability. It could be used to accumulate experience for the application of the satellite data and forecast earthquake.
引文
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[8]Parrot M.The micro-satellite DEMETER[J].Journal of Geodynamics,2002,33(4):535-541.
[9]Pulinets S,Kirill B.Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquake[M].Springer,Science&Business Media,2004.
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[13]方涵先,翁利斌,王威,等.电离层在地震短临预报中的应用[J].科学技术与工程,2010,10(27):6 694-6 706.
[14]泽仁志玛,张学民,刘静,等.利用DEMETER卫星LANGMIUR探针观测数据研究强震前的电离层扰动[J].地震地质,2010,32(3):424-433.
[15]马新欣,林湛,陈化然,等.基于COSMIC掩星数据探测汶川MS8.0地震震前电离层异常[J].地震学报,2013,6:848-855+938.
[16]Liu J Y,Chen Y I,Huang C C,et al.A spatial analysis on seismo-ionospheric anomalies observed by DEMETER during the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2015,114:414-419.
[17]张学民,刘静,钱家栋,等.西藏改则6.9级地震前的电离层电磁扰动[J].地震,2008,28(3):14-22.
[18]张学民,申旭辉,钱家栋,等.我国地震电磁卫星数据分析及应用研究进展[J].地震,2009,29(增刊):34-45.
[19]张学民,钱家栋,欧阳新艳,等.DEMETER卫星观测到的智利7.9级地震前的电离层电磁扰动[J].地球物理学进展,2009,24(4):1 196-1 203.
[20]张学民,泽仁志玛,申旭辉,等.地震前后电离层截止频率处电场频谱强度变化分析---以2006年汤加MW8.0地震为例[J].地震学报,2011,33(4):451-460.
[21]张学民,刘静,赵必强,等.玉树地震前的电离层异常现象分析[J].空间科学学报,2014,34(6):822-829.
[22]余涛,毛田,王云冈,等.汶川特大地震前电离层主要参量变化[J].科学通报,2009,55(4):493-499.
[23]许绍燮.地震与卫星(代前言)[A].中国地震学会空间对地观测专业委员会∥中国地震学会空间对地观测专业委员会成立大会暨学术研讨会论文集[C].中国地震学会空间对地观测专业委员会,2008:2.
[24]刘静,黄建平,张学民,等.基于DEMETER卫星原位等离子体参量的震前异常提取方法研究及震例分析[J].地震学报,2013,35(1):72-83.
[25]颜蕊,王兰炜,胡哲,等.利用DEMETER卫星数据分析强震前后的电离层异常[J].地震学报,2013,04:498-511+1.
[26]闫相相,单新建,曹晋滨,等.利用DEMETER卫星数据统计分析全球MW≥7.0地震的电离层电子浓度异常[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(2):364-374.
[27]李美,王芙蓉,张晓东,等.地震电离层响应异常时空演化统计特征[J].地球物理学进展,2014,29(2):0498-0504.
[28]欧阳新艳,申旭辉.DEMETER卫星观测的超低频电场扰动预处理方法及震例应用分析[J].地震学报,2015,37(5):820-829.
[29]李传荣,张志玮,李子扬,等.基于DEMETER卫星电子浓度探测数据的不同时间序列预测模型研究[J].国际地震动态,2015,(9):121-121.
[30]张学民,Frolovvl,申旭辉,等.DEMETER卫星记录到的电离层加热现象[J].空间科学学报,2016,36(1):25-39.
[31]Rozhnoi A,Solovieva M,Parrot M,et al.VLF/LF signal studies of the ionospheric response to strong seismic activity in the Far Eastern region combining the DEMETER and ground-based observations[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2015,Parts A/B/C,85:141-149.
[32]陈建志,Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,等.从临界转变的角度理解地震预测技术[J].物理,2013,42(5):329-333.
[33]Holliday J R,Nanjo K Z,Tiampo K F,et al.Earthquake forecasting and its verification[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2005,12(6):965-977.
[34]Holliday J R,Rundle J B,Tiampo K F,et al.Systematic procedural and sensitivity analysis of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large(M≥5)earthquake events in southern California[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,12:2 433-2 454.
[35]Chen C C,Rundle J B,Holliday J R,et al.The 1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(22):L22315.
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