基于聚类差异分析的边底水气藏产水预测新方法
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摘要
国内外很多边底水气藏的生产实践表明,总体开发方案设计时采用传统数值模拟方法预测的的水气比往往低于气田实际生产的水气比。针对这一问题,提出一种基于聚类差异分析的产水预测新方法。新方法对研究对象的见水规律进行聚类分析,分析研究对象与类比对象的主要差异因素,通过数值模拟中置换其主要差异因素,量化二者的见水规律,最终通过数值模拟拟合进行产水预测。应用崖城D气田的生产数据进行验证,新方法预测的见水时间以及水气比随采出程度变化关系曲线更符合实际生产情况。研究成果可有效解决陵水A深水气田的产水预测难题,可推广应用到其他边底水气藏。
The production practices of many gas reservoirs with edge and bottom water in China and other countries indicate that the water/gas ratios predicted by conventional numerical modeling method in designing overall development plans are usually lower than the water/gas ratios in actual production of gas fields. In view of this problem,a new method of predicting water production based on clustering difference analysis was advanced. This new method was applied in clustering analysis of the water breakthrough regularity of the study targets,so as to analyze the major differential factors between the study targets and the analogy targets; by displacing the major differential factors in numerical modeling,the water breakthrough regularity of the above two types of targets was quantified. Finally,water production was predicted by numerical modeling fitting. By verifying the new model using the production data of the Yacheng D gas field,the water breakthrough time that was predicted by this new method and the variation relation curve between water/gas ratio and recovery degree have higher coincidence with the actual production situation.The study result can effectively solve the problem that water production is hard to be predicted in Lingshui A deep-water gas field,and this method can be applied in other gas reservoirs with edge and bottom water.
The production practices of many gas reservoirs with edge and bottom water in China and other countries indicate that the water/gas ratios predicted by conventional numerical modeling method in designing overall development plans are usually lower than the water/gas ratios in actual production of gas fields. In view of this problem,a new method of predicting water production based on clustering difference analysis was advanced. This new method was applied in clustering analysis of the water breakthrough regularity of the study targets,so as to analyze the major differential factors between the study targets and the analogy targets; by displacing the major differential factors in numerical modeling,the water breakthrough regularity of the above two types of targets was quantified. Finally,water production was predicted by numerical modeling fitting. By verifying the new model using the production data of the Yacheng D gas field,the water breakthrough time that was predicted by this new method and the variation relation curve between water/gas ratio and recovery degree have higher coincidence with the actual production situation.The study result can effectively solve the problem that water production is hard to be predicted in Lingshui A deep-water gas field,and this method can be applied in other gas reservoirs with edge and bottom water.
引文
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[9]李勇,李保柱,夏静,等.有水气藏单井水侵阶段划分新方法[J].天然气地球科学,2015,26(10):1951-1955.
[10]生如岩,马瑞国.影响砂岩底水气藏开发动态的因素研究[J].海洋石油,2005,24(4):61-66.
[11]高大鹏,李莹莹,高玉莹.边底水凝析气藏气井出水来源综合识别方法[J].特种油气藏,2012,21(2):93-97.
[12]郑舰.胜利油区三合村浅层气藏合理产能和射开程度研究[J].油气地质与采收率,2005,12(3):51-53.