基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系
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摘要
裕度及不确定度量化方法(Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty,QMU)能够基于裕度及其不确定度信息对系统是否达到其指标要求进行科学的判断与决策.借助新的数值模拟不确定度量化方法,建立基于数值模拟预测及其不确定度的QMU决策技术体系.结合库存产品可靠性评估的实例,展示该体系的主要思想及其实现过程.
With margins and their uncertainties,QMU( Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty) method can be used to make decisions on whether performances of a product reach demands or not. Recur to new methods of UQ( Uncertainty Quantification) for M&S( Modeling & Simulation),QMU is actualized with input information directly from M&S and its uncertainties. With reliability assessment for a stockpiled product,main ideas and executing details of QMU decision are demonstrated.
With margins and their uncertainties,QMU( Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty) method can be used to make decisions on whether performances of a product reach demands or not. Recur to new methods of UQ( Uncertainty Quantification) for M&S( Modeling & Simulation),QMU is actualized with input information directly from M&S and its uncertainties. With reliability assessment for a stockpiled product,main ideas and executing details of QMU decision are demonstrated.
引文
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[17]MA Zhibo,YIN Jianwei,LI Haijie,et al.Uncertainty quantification of numerical simulations subjected to calibration[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Physics,2015,32(5):514-522.
[2]ROY C J,OBERKAMPF W L.A comprehensive framework for verification,validation,and uncertainty quantification in scientific computing[J].Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,2011,200:2131-2144.
[3]HELTON J C.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the presence of stochastic and subjective uncertainty[J].Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation,1997,57:3-76.
[4]BABUSKA I,NOBILE F,TEMPONE R.A systematic approach to model validation based on bayesian updates and prediction related rejection criteria[J].Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,2008,197(29-32):2517-2539.
[5]GOODWIN B T,JUZAITIS R J.National certification methodology for the nuclear weapon stockpile[R].UCRL-TR-223486,2003.
[6]SHARP D H,WOOD-SCHULTZ M M.QMU and nuclear weapons certification[J].Los Alamos Science,2003,28:47-53.
[7]MARTIN P,TRUCANO T G,HELTON J C.Ideas underlying quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU):A white paper[R].Sandia Report,SAND2006-5001.
[8]National Academy of Sciences.Evaluation of quantification of margin and uncertainties methodology for assessing and certifying the reliability of the nuclear stockpile[R].ISBN:0-309-12854-4,92 pages,2008.
[9]RABOIN P J.Applying QMU to nuclear weapon stewardship[R].LLNL-TR-653196,2014.
[10]HELTON J C.Conceptual and computational basis for the quantification of margins and uncertainty[R].Sandia Report,SAND2009-3055.
[11]HEMEZ F M.An information-gap view of system certification at Los Alamos[R].LA-UR-05-7429,2005.
[12]MA Zhibo,YING Yangjun,ZHU Jianshi.QMU certifying method and its implementation[J].Chinese Journal of Nuclear Science and Engineering,2009,29(1):1-9.
[13]WALLSTROM T C.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:A probabilistic framework[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96:1053-1062.
[14]SENTZ K,FERSON S.Probabilistic bounding analysis in the quantification of margin and uncertainties[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96:1126-1136.
[15]MA Zhibo,ZHENG Miao,et al.Quantification of uncertainties in detonation simulations[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Physics,2011,28(1):66-74.
[16]MA Zhibo,LI Haijie,YIN Jianwei,et al.Uncertainty quantification of numerical simulation for reliability analysis[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Physics,2014,31(4):424-430.
[17]MA Zhibo,YIN Jianwei,LI Haijie,et al.Uncertainty quantification of numerical simulations subjected to calibration[J].Chinese Journal of Computational Physics,2015,32(5):514-522.