裕度和不确定度的量化研究进展
摘要
裕度和不确定度量化是一种新的武器系统可靠性评估手段。综述了裕度和不确定度量化的原理、研究现状以及发展趋势。裕度和不确定的度量化结构单纯,直观易懂,在系统可靠性评估方面优势明显,虽然处于起步阶段,但发展前景广阔。该方法将在武器系统的鲁棒性优化设计、可靠性评估等领域得到广泛的应用。
引文
[1]Sharp D H,Wood S M M.Nuclear weapons certification.L SA,2003,28
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[3]Goodwin B T,Juzaitis R J.National certification methodology for the nuclear weapon stockpile.Draft Working Paper,2003
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[17]Owhadi H,Scovel C,Sullivan T J,et al.Optimal uncertainty quantification.SIAM Rev,2013,55(2)
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[21]Helton J C,Oberl W L,Johnson J D.Competing failure risk analysis using evidence theory.Risk Anal,2005,25(4)
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[23]Swiler L P,Paez T L,Mayes R L,et al.Epistemic uncertainty in the calculation of margins.In:50th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC structures,structural dynamics and materials conference.AIAA 2009-2249
[24]Bae H,Grandhi R V,Canfield R A.An approximation approach for uncertainty quantification using evidence theory.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,86
[25]Bae H,Grandhi R V,Canfield R A.Epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques including evidence theory for large-scale structures.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,82
[26]Agarwal H,Renaud J E,Padmanabhan D.Uncertainty quantification using evidence theory in multidisciplinary design optimization.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,85
[27]Hosder S,Waiters R W,Balch M.Efficient sampling for non-intrusive polynomial chaos applications with multiple input uncertain variables.In:9th AIAA nondeterministic approaches conference.AIAA 2007-1939
[28]Hosder S,Waiters R W,Balch M.Point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for stochastic computational fluid dynamics.AIAA J,2010,48(l2)
[29]Bettis BR,Hosder S,Winter T.Efficient uncertainty quantification in multidisciplinary analysis of a reusable launch vehicle.In:17th AIAA international space planes and hypersonic systems and technologies conference,AIAA Paper 2011-2393,San Francisco,CA,2011
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[31]Hosder S,Bettis B R.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for reentry flows with inherent and model-form uncertainties.J Spacecr Rocket.201z;49(March-April(z))
[32]Eldred M S,Swiler L P,Tang G.Mixed aleatory-epistemic uncertainty quantification with stochastic expansions and optimization-based interval estimation.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2011,96
[33]Helton J C,Johnson J D,Sallaberry C J.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.Reliab Png Syst Saf,2011,96(9)
[34]Sentz K,Person S.Probabilistic bounding analysis in the quantification of margins and uncertainties.Reliab Png Syst Saf,2011,96
[35]Ferson S,Kreinovich V,Ginzburg L,et al.Constructing probability boxes and Dempster-Shafer structures.Sandia National Laboratories SAIVD2002-4015,Albuquerque,NM,2002
[36]彭忠明,王玉明.基于试验数据的性能裕量及其不确定性量化.信息与电子工程,2010,8(6)
[37]李树勇.非概率可靠性的工程应用研究.航天器环境工程,2009,12(26)
[38]唐炜,王玉明.复杂系统关键特征参数确定方法.信息与电子工程,2011,2(9)
[39]马智博,殷建伟.数值模拟不确定度的量化.中国核科学技术进展报告(第二卷),2011
[40]郝旭东.基于RVM-PF的卫星关键部件寿命预测.长沙:国防科学技术大学学位论文,2011
[41]胡杨.基于RVM-PF的动态安全裕度与不确定性评估方法.长沙:国防科学技术大学学位论文,2012
[42]于新源,许波,姜再明.军事辅助决策模型及其求解技术研究进展.战术导弹技术,2016(5)
[43]田永青.基于定量反馈理论的姿态控制技术研究.战术导弹技术,2016(2)
[2]Sharp D H,Wood S M.QMU and nuclear weapons certification.W hats’s under the hood.Los Alamos Sci.2003,28
[3]Goodwin B T,Juzaitis R J.National certification methodology for the nuclear weapon stockpile.Draft Working Paper,2003
[4]Eardley D.Quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU).Technical Report,JSR-04-330(JASON),2005
[5]U.S.GAO(U.S.Government Accountability Office).Nuclear weapons:NNSA needs to refine and more effectively manage its new approach for assessing and certifying nuclear weapons.GAO-06-261.Washington,DC:U.S.Government Accountability Office,2006
[6]NAS/NRC(National Academy of Science/National Research Council).Evaluation of quantification of margins and uncertainties for assessing and certifying the reliability of the nuclear stockpile.Washington,DC:National Academy Press,2008
[7]Pilch M,Trucano T G,Helton J C.Ideas underlying the quantification of margins and uncertainties.Reliab Eng Syst Saf 2011,96
[8]Pepin J E,Rytherford A C,Hemez F M.Defining a practical QMU metric.In:49th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC structures,structural dynamics and materials conference.AIAA 2008-1717
[9]Lucas L J,Owhadi H,Ortiz M.Rigorous verification,validation,uncertainty quantification and certification through concentration-of-measure inequalities.Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng,2008,197(October(51-52))
[10]laccariono G,Pecnik R,Glimm J,Sharp D.A QMU approach for characterizing operability limits of airbreathing hypersonic vehicles.LANL Report,LA-UR09-01863
[11]National Research Council evaluation of quantification of margins and uncertainties methodology for assessing and certifying the reliability of the nuclear stockpile.Washington,DC:The National Academies Press,2009
[12]Helton J C.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:conceptual and computational basis.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2011,96(9)
[13]Oberkampf W L,De Land S M,Rutherford B M,et al.Alvin I
[15]Wallstrom T C.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:a probabilistic framework.Reliab Eng Syst Saf2011,96
[16]Helton J C,Johnson J D,Oberkampf W L,et al.A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.Comput Methods Appl Mech Eng,2007,196(37-40)
[17]Owhadi H,Scovel C,Sullivan T J,et al.Optimal uncertainty quantification.SIAM Rev,2013,55(2)
[18]Shafer G.A mathematical theory of evidence.Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,1976
[19]Pereira L C,Guimaraes L J N,Horowitz B,et al.Coupled hydro-mechanical fault reactivation analysis incorporating evidence theory for uncertainty quantification.Comput Ceotech,2014,56
[20]Helton J C,Johnson J D,Oberl W L,et al.Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.Int J Gen Syst,2010,39(6)
[21]Helton J C,Oberl W L,Johnson J D.Competing failure risk analysis using evidence theory.Risk Anal,2005,25(4)
[22]Helton J C,Johnson J D.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2011,96(9)
[23]Swiler L P,Paez T L,Mayes R L,et al.Epistemic uncertainty in the calculation of margins.In:50th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC structures,structural dynamics and materials conference.AIAA 2009-2249
[24]Bae H,Grandhi R V,Canfield R A.An approximation approach for uncertainty quantification using evidence theory.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,86
[25]Bae H,Grandhi R V,Canfield R A.Epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques including evidence theory for large-scale structures.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,82
[26]Agarwal H,Renaud J E,Padmanabhan D.Uncertainty quantification using evidence theory in multidisciplinary design optimization.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2004,85
[27]Hosder S,Waiters R W,Balch M.Efficient sampling for non-intrusive polynomial chaos applications with multiple input uncertain variables.In:9th AIAA nondeterministic approaches conference.AIAA 2007-1939
[28]Hosder S,Waiters R W,Balch M.Point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos method for stochastic computational fluid dynamics.AIAA J,2010,48(l2)
[29]Bettis BR,Hosder S,Winter T.Efficient uncertainty quantification in multidisciplinary analysis of a reusable launch vehicle.In:17th AIAA international space planes and hypersonic systems and technologies conference,AIAA Paper 2011-2393,San Francisco,CA,2011
[30]Hosder S.Stochastic response surfaces based on nonintrusive polynomial chaos for uncertainty quantification.Int J Math Model Numer Optim,2012
[31]Hosder S,Bettis B R.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for reentry flows with inherent and model-form uncertainties.J Spacecr Rocket.201z;49(March-April(z))
[32]Eldred M S,Swiler L P,Tang G.Mixed aleatory-epistemic uncertainty quantification with stochastic expansions and optimization-based interval estimation.Reliab Eng Syst Saf,2011,96
[33]Helton J C,Johnson J D,Sallaberry C J.Quantification of margins and uncertainties:example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.Reliab Png Syst Saf,2011,96(9)
[34]Sentz K,Person S.Probabilistic bounding analysis in the quantification of margins and uncertainties.Reliab Png Syst Saf,2011,96
[35]Ferson S,Kreinovich V,Ginzburg L,et al.Constructing probability boxes and Dempster-Shafer structures.Sandia National Laboratories SAIVD2002-4015,Albuquerque,NM,2002
[36]彭忠明,王玉明.基于试验数据的性能裕量及其不确定性量化.信息与电子工程,2010,8(6)
[37]李树勇.非概率可靠性的工程应用研究.航天器环境工程,2009,12(26)
[38]唐炜,王玉明.复杂系统关键特征参数确定方法.信息与电子工程,2011,2(9)
[39]马智博,殷建伟.数值模拟不确定度的量化.中国核科学技术进展报告(第二卷),2011
[40]郝旭东.基于RVM-PF的卫星关键部件寿命预测.长沙:国防科学技术大学学位论文,2011
[41]胡杨.基于RVM-PF的动态安全裕度与不确定性评估方法.长沙:国防科学技术大学学位论文,2012
[42]于新源,许波,姜再明.军事辅助决策模型及其求解技术研究进展.战术导弹技术,2016(5)
[43]田永青.基于定量反馈理论的姿态控制技术研究.战术导弹技术,2016(2)