1961～2015年贵州省气候生产潜力估算及趋势分析
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摘要
[目的]估算和预测分析贵州复杂地形下的气候生产潜力,为充分利用气候资源和农业可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于1961~2015年贵州81个气象观测站的平均温度和降水量气象资料,运用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型,计算了温度、降水和气候生产潜力,并运用气候倾向率、MannKendall突变检验、GIS空间插值和R/S等方法分析其变化特征。[结果]温度生产潜力以9.2kg/(hm~2·10年)的速率递增,降水生产潜力呈递减趋势,递减速率为13.27kg/(hm~2·10年),气候生产潜力呈递增趋势,递增速率为0.73kg/(hm~2·10年),多年平均值为1 462.12kg/hm~2;空间分布上温度、降水生产潜力与年平均温度和年降水量的空间分布一致,气候生产潜力总体呈现出南高北低,由东南向西北递减变化趋势;平均气温和降水量对气候生产潜力均有正影响,其中降水量是主要限制因子,R/S结果表明,温度生产潜力和气候生产潜力继续保持增长趋势而降水生产潜力保持递减趋势。[结论]影响贵州气候生产潜力最重要的因素是降水,其次是光温条件的综合效应。
This paper estimated and predicted the climate production potential under complex terrain in Guizhou to make full use of climate resources and sustainable agricultural development. Based on temperature and precipitation meteorological data from the 81 meteorological stations in Guizhou during 1961 ~ 2015,it calculated the temperature,precipitation and climatic potential productivity,also the climate tendency rate by using the Miami model and Thorn Thwaite Memorial model,and analyzed its characteristics using Mann-Kendall mutation testing,GIS interpolation and R/S method. The results showed that: the temperature production potential kept increasing with a rate of 9. 2 kg · hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1) and the precipitation potential productivity kept decreasing at the rate of 13. 27 kg ·hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1),the climate production potential kept increasing at rate of 0. 73 kg·hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1),the average value was 1 462. 12 kg·hm~(-2); The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation potential was consistent with the annual average temperature and annual precipitation,the climate production potential was overall high in North and low in South,and descended from the southeast to northwest trend; The average temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the climatic potential productivity,and precipitation was the main limiting factor; R/S analysis results showed that the temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity continued to increase,while the precipitation production potential kept decreasing. In the study area,the climate potential productivity would keep increasing tendency. Precipitation was the main factor restricting the climate production potential,followed by the comprehensive effect of light and temperature conditions.
This paper estimated and predicted the climate production potential under complex terrain in Guizhou to make full use of climate resources and sustainable agricultural development. Based on temperature and precipitation meteorological data from the 81 meteorological stations in Guizhou during 1961 ~ 2015,it calculated the temperature,precipitation and climatic potential productivity,also the climate tendency rate by using the Miami model and Thorn Thwaite Memorial model,and analyzed its characteristics using Mann-Kendall mutation testing,GIS interpolation and R/S method. The results showed that: the temperature production potential kept increasing with a rate of 9. 2 kg · hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1) and the precipitation potential productivity kept decreasing at the rate of 13. 27 kg ·hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1),the climate production potential kept increasing at rate of 0. 73 kg·hm~(-2)·10 a~(-1),the average value was 1 462. 12 kg·hm~(-2); The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation potential was consistent with the annual average temperature and annual precipitation,the climate production potential was overall high in North and low in South,and descended from the southeast to northwest trend; The average temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the climatic potential productivity,and precipitation was the main limiting factor; R/S analysis results showed that the temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity continued to increase,while the precipitation production potential kept decreasing. In the study area,the climate potential productivity would keep increasing tendency. Precipitation was the main factor restricting the climate production potential,followed by the comprehensive effect of light and temperature conditions.
引文
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[21]冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立,等.中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验.干旱区地理,2009,32(6):859~866
[22]李珊珊,张明军,汪宝龙,等.近51年来三江源区降水变化的空间差异.生态学杂志,2012,31(10):2635~2643
[23]徐丽梅,郭英,刘敏,等.1957年至2008年海河流域气温变化趋势和突变分析.资源科学,2011,33(5):995~1001
[24]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社.1999
[25]熊康宁,李晋,龙明忠.典型喀斯特石漠化治理区水土流失特征与关键问题.地理学报,2012,67(7):878~888
[26]吴战平,白慧,严小冬.贵州省夏旱的时空特点及成因分析.云南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(S2):383~391
[27]许炳南,陈世平.贵州农业“两旱”的气候特征及其防御.灾害学,1997,12(2):44~48
[28]郑小波,罗宇翔,周成霞,等.近45年来贵州省日照时数的变化特征.气象研究与应用,2007,28(z2):2~4
[29]袁淑杰,缪启龙,邱新法,等.贵州高原起伏地形下日照时间的时空分布.应用气象学报,2008,19(2):233~237
[2]董思,任志远,张翀,等.陕西省气候变化及其气候生产潜力的时空变化.中国农业大学学报,2016,21(8):142~149
[3]许艳,濮励杰,朱明.基于作物生长期的江苏省沿海地区气候生产潜力估算.地理科学,2015,35(5):658~664
[4]罗永忠,成自勇,郭小芹.近40年甘肃省气候生产潜力时空变化特征.生态学报,2011,31(1):221~229
[5]赵俊芳,郭建平,邬定荣,等.2011~2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价.应用生态学报,2011,22(12):3189~3195
[6]马甜,王俊波,张治华,等.宁夏中部干旱带天然草地气候生产潜力研究.草地学报,2013,21(2):236~242
[7]郭小芹,刘明春.河西走廊近40年气候生产潜力特征研究.中国沙漠,2011,31(5):1323~1329
[8]赵慧颖,魏学占,乌秋力,等.呼伦贝尔典型草原区牧草气候生产潜力评估.干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(1):137~140
[9]张艺萌,张雪松,郭婷婷,等.辽西北地区气温和降水变化对气候生产潜力的影响.中国农业气象,2015,36(2):203~211
[10]康西言,马辉杰.河北省气候生产潜力的估算与区划.中国农业气象,2008,29(1):37~41
[11]李祥妹,赵卫,黄远林.基于生态系统承载能力核算的西藏高原草地资源区划研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):167~173
[12]侯智惠,梅连杰,侯安宏,等.内蒙古农业资源利用区域差异分析.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(1):160~166
[13]钟新科,刘洛,徐新良,等.近30年中国玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征.农业工程学报,2012,28(15):94~101
[14]安彬,孙虎,刘宇峰,等.陕西省气候及其生产潜力时空变化特征.陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(3):103~108
[15]潘虹,邱新法,廖留峰,等.近50年贵州省气候生产潜力时空变化特征.干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):158~163
[16]武永利,卢淑贤,王云峰,等.近45年山西省气候生产潜力时空变化特征分析.生态环境学报,2009,18(2):567~571
[17]庞艳梅,陈超,潘学标,等.未来气候变化对四川盆地玉米生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响.中国生态农业学报,2013,21(12):1526~1536
[18]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响.地理研究,2012,31(2):290~298
[19]张锐,刘普幸,张克新.新疆草地气候生产潜力变化特征及对气候响应的预测研究.中国沙漠,2012,32(1):181~187
[20]魏凤英,冯蕾,马玉平,等.东北地区玉米气候生产潜力时空分布特征.气象科技,2010,38(2):243~247
[21]冯新灵,罗隆诚,冯自立,等.中国近50年降水变化趋势及突变的Hurst指数试验.干旱区地理,2009,32(6):859~866
[22]李珊珊,张明军,汪宝龙,等.近51年来三江源区降水变化的空间差异.生态学杂志,2012,31(10):2635~2643
[23]徐丽梅,郭英,刘敏,等.1957年至2008年海河流域气温变化趋势和突变分析.资源科学,2011,33(5):995~1001
[24]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术.北京:气象出版社.1999
[25]熊康宁,李晋,龙明忠.典型喀斯特石漠化治理区水土流失特征与关键问题.地理学报,2012,67(7):878~888
[26]吴战平,白慧,严小冬.贵州省夏旱的时空特点及成因分析.云南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,33(S2):383~391
[27]许炳南,陈世平.贵州农业“两旱”的气候特征及其防御.灾害学,1997,12(2):44~48
[28]郑小波,罗宇翔,周成霞,等.近45年来贵州省日照时数的变化特征.气象研究与应用,2007,28(z2):2~4
[29]袁淑杰,缪启龙,邱新法,等.贵州高原起伏地形下日照时间的时空分布.应用气象学报,2008,19(2):233~237