贵州省境内长江流域不同水系气候变化特征对比研究
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摘要
[目的]分析57a来贵州境内长江流域气温与降水变化规律,为贵州喀斯特地区环境演化提供科学支撑,同时也为区域适应和减缓气候变化提供对策。[方法]基于1960—2016年贵州省境内长江流域的12个气象站点的月平均气温和降水数据,运用累计距平、5a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验和回归分析等方法,对流域气候特征及动态进行了分析。[结果]流域总体上气温呈升高趋势,升温率为0.14℃/10a,降水量波动中有小幅下降趋势,降幅为12.94mm/10a;气温在1997年发生一次突变,突变前后温度变化差异较大,而降水量无明显突变;气温和降水主要受经度、海拔影响而表现东西分布的显著差异;在各水系,气温升温趋势占主导地位,降水量呈M形波动且有小幅下降趋势;相关性分析表明降水量随着气温的升高而减少,尤其乌江水系降水量的变化对气温的敏感性较高。[结论]总体而言,该流域与整个贵州省乃至西南地区气候变化趋势相吻合,朝着暖干化的方向发展,为遏制这一趋势应提高植被覆盖率,改善区域小气候。
[Objective]In order to provide scientific support for environmental evolution in Guizhou karst area and countermeasures for adapting to and mitigating climate change in the region changing regulations of temperature and precipitation in Yangtze River basin in Guizhou Province in recent 57 years were analyzed.[Methods]Based on data of monthly average temperature and precipitation of 12 meteorological stations in Yangtze River basin of Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2016,and applying methods of cumulative anomaly,5 amoving average,Mann-Kendall mutation test and regression analysis,climate characteristics and change were analyzed.[Results]The results showed that temperature trend in the basin had increased in general,with an increasing ratio of 0.14 ℃/10 a.There was a slight fluctuated downward trend for precipitation,with a decrease ratio of 12.94 mm/10 a.A temperature inflection occurred in 1997,there was a great difference in temperature before and after the inflection point,but no obvious change was found in precipitation.Resulted from the different effect of longitude and altitude,temperature and precipitation is different obviously in east-westward direction.In all water systems,temperature was mainly in a rising trend.Precipitation showed a M shaped fluctuation with slight downward trend.Correlation analysis showed that precipitation decreased with increase of temperature,especially the change of precipitation in Wujiang River had very high sensibility with temperature.[Conclusion]In general,the basin is consistent with the trend of climate change throughout Guizhou Province and even in southwest China as well,and is evolving toward the directions of warming and drying.In order to slow down this trend,vegetation ratio should be increased so as to improve regional microclimate.
[Objective]In order to provide scientific support for environmental evolution in Guizhou karst area and countermeasures for adapting to and mitigating climate change in the region changing regulations of temperature and precipitation in Yangtze River basin in Guizhou Province in recent 57 years were analyzed.[Methods]Based on data of monthly average temperature and precipitation of 12 meteorological stations in Yangtze River basin of Guizhou Province from 1960 to 2016,and applying methods of cumulative anomaly,5 amoving average,Mann-Kendall mutation test and regression analysis,climate characteristics and change were analyzed.[Results]The results showed that temperature trend in the basin had increased in general,with an increasing ratio of 0.14 ℃/10 a.There was a slight fluctuated downward trend for precipitation,with a decrease ratio of 12.94 mm/10 a.A temperature inflection occurred in 1997,there was a great difference in temperature before and after the inflection point,but no obvious change was found in precipitation.Resulted from the different effect of longitude and altitude,temperature and precipitation is different obviously in east-westward direction.In all water systems,temperature was mainly in a rising trend.Precipitation showed a M shaped fluctuation with slight downward trend.Correlation analysis showed that precipitation decreased with increase of temperature,especially the change of precipitation in Wujiang River had very high sensibility with temperature.[Conclusion]In general,the basin is consistent with the trend of climate change throughout Guizhou Province and even in southwest China as well,and is evolving toward the directions of warming and drying.In order to slow down this trend,vegetation ratio should be increased so as to improve regional microclimate.
引文
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[17]刘永婷,徐光来,尹周祥,等.全球变化背景下安徽近55年气温时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(4):680-691.
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[20]杨义,舒和平,马金珠,等.基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析中小尺度多年气候变化特征研究:以甘肃省白银市近50年气候变化为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(5):126-131.
[21]陈学凯,徐建新,胡娟萍,等.1961—2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(4):50-56.
[22]杨群,晏理华,周长志,等.2009年铜仁地区高温干旱特征及成因诊断分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(4):1018-1026.
[23]王英,曹明奎,陶波,等.全球气候变化背景下中国降水量空间格局的变化特征[J],地理研究,2006,25(6):1031-1040.
[24]蒋兴文,李跃清.西南地区冬季气候异常的时空变化特征及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2010,65(11):1325-1335.
[25]李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960—2008年气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):563-579.
[26]尹文有.全球变暖背景下西南地区气候变化特征分析[D].甘肃兰州:兰州大学,2010.
[27]周晓霞,王盘兴,段明铿,等.我国季平均气温和降水局地同时相关的时空特征[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):601-609.
[28]李聪,肖子牛,张晓玲.近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J].气象,2012,38(4):419-424.
[29]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.
[2]Chang I C.The physical science basis.Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC[J].Computational Geometry,2007,18(2):95-123.
[3]尹文有,田文寿,琚建华.西南地区不同地形台阶气温时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):429-435.
[4]齐冬梅,周长艳,李跃清,等.西南区域气候变化原因分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(1):35-42.
[5]潘虹,邱新法,廖留峰,等.近50年贵州省气候生产潜力时空变化特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(11):158-163.
[6]李春梅,李双成,王红亚.贵州麦岗水库小流域降水变化特征的小波分析[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(1):32-39.
[7]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫,等.贵州省近50年降水量时空分布及变化特征[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(2):10-14.
[8]唐红忠,白慧,舒兴武,等.近51年贵州南部冬季气温气候特征及其变化规律[J].云南大学学报,2012,34(S2):374-380.
[9]Wu Di,Zhao Yong,Pei Yuansheng.Numerical simulation and evaluation of regional climate change in Southwest China by a regional climate model[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2010,2(1):1540-1554.
[10]Zhang Mingjun,He Jinyun,Wang Baolong,et al.Extreme drought changes in Southwest China from1960to2009[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2013,23(1):3-16.
[11]于俊伟,刘雪梅,甘露,等.1998年贵州省属长江流域地区洪涝灾害与森林植被的关系[J].灾害学,1999(1):39-42.
[12]曹卫峰,白涛.贵州省长江流域属区水污染现状分析[J].贵州地质,1985(3):297-305.
[13]谢静,何冠谛,何腾兵.贵州气候因素对土壤类型及分布的影响[J].浙江农业科学,2015,56(4):510-514.
[14]张喜.贵州省长江流域天然林分区和主要树种结构[J].山地学报,2001,19(4):312-319.
[15]何云玲,鲁枝海.近60年昆明市气候变化特征分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(9):1119-1124.
[16]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):151-156.
[17]刘永婷,徐光来,尹周祥,等.全球变化背景下安徽近55年气温时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(4):680-691.
[18]汤国安,杨昕.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析试验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[19]康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等.基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):501-508.
[20]杨义,舒和平,马金珠,等.基于Mann-Kendall法和小波分析中小尺度多年气候变化特征研究:以甘肃省白银市近50年气候变化为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(5):126-131.
[21]陈学凯,徐建新,胡娟萍,等.1961—2012年贵州省极端降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2015,26(4):50-56.
[22]杨群,晏理华,周长志,等.2009年铜仁地区高温干旱特征及成因诊断分析[J].高原气象,2011,30(4):1018-1026.
[23]王英,曹明奎,陶波,等.全球气候变化背景下中国降水量空间格局的变化特征[J],地理研究,2006,25(6):1031-1040.
[24]蒋兴文,李跃清.西南地区冬季气候异常的时空变化特征及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2010,65(11):1325-1335.
[25]李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960—2008年气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(5):563-579.
[26]尹文有.全球变暖背景下西南地区气候变化特征分析[D].甘肃兰州:兰州大学,2010.
[27]周晓霞,王盘兴,段明铿,等.我国季平均气温和降水局地同时相关的时空特征[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(5):601-609.
[28]李聪,肖子牛,张晓玲.近60年中国不同区域降水的气候变化特征[J].气象,2012,38(4):419-424.
[29]陈学凯,徐建新,雷宏军,等.贵州省干旱时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].灌溉排水学报,2015,34(8):72-81.