1961-2017年南疆地区沙尘天气的时空变化特征及影响因素分析
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摘要
利用南疆地区49个地面气象站1961-2017年沙尘资料,通过Mann-Kendall突变检验法、 IDW插值法、多元回归分析和相对贡献率等方法,对南疆地区沙尘天气的月、季和年及年代的时空变化特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:近57a南疆地区沙尘天气呈极显著波动下降趋势,减速为-1.06d/a,其中浮尘日数减速最大(-8.6d/10a);沙尘变化特征表现为单峰式的先增后减;沙尘暴、扬沙和浮尘日数突变年为1989、1995和1994年;沙尘天气具有季节性、区域性差异,春夏秋冬分别为31.4、20.9、11.4和6.8d,季节变化表现为春季(-4.1d/10a)最大,年内月份均表现显著减少趋势;浮尘、沙尘暴和扬沙均呈现南多北少的纬向特征,主要发生在和田和巴州地区的南部,且绝大部分站点沙尘天气呈现显著减少趋势;风速、气温日较差与沙尘天气日数呈显著正相关,对沙尘天气的相对贡献率为51.2%和13.1%,水汽压、气温、最低气温、降水量呈显著负相关,贡献率为20.4%、9.5%、0.5%和0.2%,影响排序为风速>水汽压>气温日较差>气温>最低气温>降水量,风速对沙尘天气发生的影响占主导地位。综上所述,风速、下垫面的干湿状况、气温和冷空气活动等因素是南疆沙尘天气发生的主要因素。研究成果可为南疆地区绿洲合理扩张和沙土资源利用提供科学依据。
Using the data of daily dust,sand and sandstorms from 49 ground-to-surface meteorological stations in the southern Xinjiang between 1961-2017,this study analyzed the spatial variation feature and impact factors of the annual,periods,seasonal and monthly dynamics of the occurrence days of sandstorms in the region through Mann-Kendall mutation test,IDW interpolation,multiple regression analysis and relative contribution rate,etc. The results showed that days of dust weather in southern Xinjiang in recent 57 a presented a very significant fluctuation trend,as the deceleration at-1.06 d/a; among which the deceleration of dust floating days was the largest,that was-8.6 d/10 a. Sandstorm,sand and floating dust all presented single-peak variation,they were all firstly increased and then decreased; the mutation time of the dust storm, sand and the dust days were 1989,1995 and 1994, respectively. The three kinds of duet days showed seasonal and regional differences; the number of sandstorm days occurred in spring,summer,autumn and winter were 31.4 d,20.9 d,11.4 d and 6.8 d,respectively,and the seasonal variation was the highest in spring(-4.1 d/10 a),and the monthly performance showed a significant decrease trend. Dust,sandstorm and sandstorm all presented a latitudinal feature by more in the south,less in the north,mainly in the southern part of Hetian and Bazhou; also,most of the dust weather showed a significant decrease trend. Wind speed and temperature difference presented positive correlation with the number of dust days,and their relative contribution rates to dust weather were 51.2% and 13.1%,respectively; water vapor pressure,temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation presented significant negative correlation with the number of dust days,and their relative contribution rates were 20.4%,9.5%,0.5%,and 0.2%,respectively. The order of factors were as wind speed> vapor pressure> poor daily temperature> temperature> the lowest temperature. Wind speed had a dominant influence on the occurrence of dust weather. To sum up, the occurrence of sand and dust weather in southern Xinxiang mainly depends on wind speed, dry and wet conditions of underlying surface, air temperature and the frequency of cold air activities. The research results can provide scientific basis for rational expansion of oasis and utilization of sandy soil resources in southern Xinxiang.
Using the data of daily dust,sand and sandstorms from 49 ground-to-surface meteorological stations in the southern Xinjiang between 1961-2017,this study analyzed the spatial variation feature and impact factors of the annual,periods,seasonal and monthly dynamics of the occurrence days of sandstorms in the region through Mann-Kendall mutation test,IDW interpolation,multiple regression analysis and relative contribution rate,etc. The results showed that days of dust weather in southern Xinjiang in recent 57 a presented a very significant fluctuation trend,as the deceleration at-1.06 d/a; among which the deceleration of dust floating days was the largest,that was-8.6 d/10 a. Sandstorm,sand and floating dust all presented single-peak variation,they were all firstly increased and then decreased; the mutation time of the dust storm, sand and the dust days were 1989,1995 and 1994, respectively. The three kinds of duet days showed seasonal and regional differences; the number of sandstorm days occurred in spring,summer,autumn and winter were 31.4 d,20.9 d,11.4 d and 6.8 d,respectively,and the seasonal variation was the highest in spring(-4.1 d/10 a),and the monthly performance showed a significant decrease trend. Dust,sandstorm and sandstorm all presented a latitudinal feature by more in the south,less in the north,mainly in the southern part of Hetian and Bazhou; also,most of the dust weather showed a significant decrease trend. Wind speed and temperature difference presented positive correlation with the number of dust days,and their relative contribution rates to dust weather were 51.2% and 13.1%,respectively; water vapor pressure,temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation presented significant negative correlation with the number of dust days,and their relative contribution rates were 20.4%,9.5%,0.5%,and 0.2%,respectively. The order of factors were as wind speed> vapor pressure> poor daily temperature> temperature> the lowest temperature. Wind speed had a dominant influence on the occurrence of dust weather. To sum up, the occurrence of sand and dust weather in southern Xinxiang mainly depends on wind speed, dry and wet conditions of underlying surface, air temperature and the frequency of cold air activities. The research results can provide scientific basis for rational expansion of oasis and utilization of sandy soil resources in southern Xinxiang.
引文
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[15]王雪姣,王森,吉春容,彭冬梅,郭燕云,郑新倩.1961-2015年新疆0cm地温的时空分布特征及突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(4):165-169.
[16]王雪姣,彭冬梅,王森,吉春容,郭燕云,李新建.新疆玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征研究[J].新疆农业大学学报,2017,40(2):140-145.
[17]李璠,徐维新,祁栋林,严应存.1961-2015年青海沙尘天气时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):412-417.
[18]李彰俊,郝璐.地面冻结状况与春季沙尘暴发生的关系[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):203-209.
[19]邓兴耀,姚俊强,刘志辉.基于GIMMS-NDVI的中亚干旱区植被覆盖时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):10-19.
[20]高婧.新疆大风时空变化特征及环流背景研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010.
[21]格日乐,邹学勇,吴晓旭,等.近45年内蒙古乌审旗气候变化对沙尘天气的影响[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(5):613-620.
[22]李并成,米小强.唐代西北地区沙尘天气发生特征[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(2):313-319.
[2]王旭,马禹,陈洪武.新疆沙尘暴天气的气候特征[J].中国沙漠,2003,23(5):539-544.
[3]王旭,马禹,汪宏伟,等.北疆沙尘暴天气气候特征分析[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2002,38(5):681-687.
[4]王旭,马禹,陈洪武,等.南疆沙尘暴气候特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2003,23(2):147-151.
[5]霍文.新疆沙尘暴天气演变特征及成因分析[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆师范大学,2011.
[6]郝璐,穆斯塔发.新疆绿洲区沙尘暴变化特征及气象因子影响分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(8):130-134.
[7]刘尊驰,刘彤,韩志全,孙钦明,朱乐奎.新疆和田地区春季气流和沙尘传输路径的时空特征[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(12):129-134.
[8]毛东雷,蔡富艳,薛杰,雷加强,李生宇,周杰.新疆和田策勒1960-2013年沙尘天气变化趋势[J].干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(2):164-169.
[9]高卫东,袁玉江,刘志辉,魏文寿.新疆沙尘源状况及其沙尘气溶胶释放条件分析[J].中国沙漠,2008,28(5):968-973.
[10]周自江,王锡稳,牛若芸.近47年中国沙尘暴气候特征研究[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(2):193-200.
[11]钱正安,蔡英,刘景涛,等.中国北方沙尘暴研究的若干进展和问题[C].北京:中国气象学会,2003年分会,2003.
[12]白云岗,宋郁东,张建军,等.近40a来塔里木盆地沙尘暴气候时空变化分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,19(5):42-45.
[13]王荣梅,阿依仙木古丽,余岚,阿不都克日木,李风晶.新疆喀什地区沙尘暴天气的时空分布特征及防治措施[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1553-1559.
[14]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[15]王雪姣,王森,吉春容,彭冬梅,郭燕云,郑新倩.1961-2015年新疆0cm地温的时空分布特征及突变分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(4):165-169.
[16]王雪姣,彭冬梅,王森,吉春容,郭燕云,李新建.新疆玛纳斯河流域潜在蒸散量年代际变化特征研究[J].新疆农业大学学报,2017,40(2):140-145.
[17]李璠,徐维新,祁栋林,严应存.1961-2015年青海沙尘天气时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):412-417.
[18]李彰俊,郝璐.地面冻结状况与春季沙尘暴发生的关系[J].干旱区地理,2008,31(2):203-209.
[19]邓兴耀,姚俊强,刘志辉.基于GIMMS-NDVI的中亚干旱区植被覆盖时空变化[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):10-19.
[20]高婧.新疆大风时空变化特征及环流背景研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2010.
[21]格日乐,邹学勇,吴晓旭,等.近45年内蒙古乌审旗气候变化对沙尘天气的影响[J].干旱区研究,2009,26(5):613-620.
[22]李并成,米小强.唐代西北地区沙尘天气发生特征[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(2):313-319.