航空网络延误传播相关性分析
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摘要
随着航空需求的不断增长,空域容量及交通流量间的不平衡现象越发凸显,导致空中交通运输系统拥挤不断加剧以及大面积延误事故频发,因此延误传播机理研究对于航班延误控制至关重要。从宏观角度,采用空间相关分析法研究了航空网络中航班延误传播和流量拥挤传播的空间相关性,可见,航班延误和流量拥挤传播与距离具有一定相关性。采用时间序列分析方法对机场间延误时间序列进行了相关性分析。分析可见,机场延误相关系数概率分布服从对数正态分布,地理位置相近机场的延误模式相似。
With the increasing aviation requirenments,the imbalance between the airspace capacity and the traffic flow becomes more and more prominent.It causes the intensified congestion of the air traffic transportation system and the frequented large scale delay.Therefore,the study of delay propagation mechanism plays a significant role in the flight delay control.From a macroscopical perspective,the spatial correlation of the flight delay propagation and the traffic congestion propagation in the aviation network is studied with the spatial correlation analysis.The study shows that the flight delay propagation and traffic congestion propagation have a certain correlation with the distance.The correlation of the delay time series between the airports is analyzed with the time series method.The analysis shows that the probability distribution of the airport delay correlation coefficient follows the lognormal distribution,and the airports with similar geographical location have the similar delay mode.
With the increasing aviation requirenments,the imbalance between the airspace capacity and the traffic flow becomes more and more prominent.It causes the intensified congestion of the air traffic transportation system and the frequented large scale delay.Therefore,the study of delay propagation mechanism plays a significant role in the flight delay control.From a macroscopical perspective,the spatial correlation of the flight delay propagation and the traffic congestion propagation in the aviation network is studied with the spatial correlation analysis.The study shows that the flight delay propagation and traffic congestion propagation have a certain correlation with the distance.The correlation of the delay time series between the airports is analyzed with the time series method.The analysis shows that the probability distribution of the airport delay correlation coefficient follows the lognormal distribution,and the airports with similar geographical location have the similar delay mode.
引文
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[4]吴薇薇,郑松林.基于修正延误波及树的航班延误传播研究[J].交通信息与安全,2014,32(4):119-123.WU Weiwei,ZHENG songlin.A study of the spread of flight delay based on the modified delay propagation tree[J].Journal of Transport Information and Safety,2014,32(4):119-123.(in Chinese)
[5]MAKSE H A,HAVLIN S,STANLEY H E.Modeling urban growth patterns[J].Nature,1995,377(6550):608-612.
[6]CAVAGNA A,CIMARELLI A,GIARDINA I,et al.Scale-free correlations in starling flocks[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2010,107(26):11865-11870.
[7]LI D Q,JIANG Y N,KANG R,et al.Spatial correlation analysis of cascading failures:congestions and blackouts[EB/OL].(2014-06-20)[2018-01-15].https://www.nature.com/articles/srep05381.