一种预测特高含水期开发指标的联解法
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摘要
为准确预测特高含水期的开发指标,提出一种采用折线法和Arps递减规律结合的模型.利用折线法推导出甲型水驱特征方程的第2直线段方程,通过实际井史数据验证了折线法的正确性,得出10口井的水驱特征曲线上翘点含水率(体积分数)为90. 58%～96. 49%,平均值为93. 49%,而油水相渗比值的对数与含水饱和度的关系曲线转折点的含水率为93. 37%,两者相差无几.结合Arps递减规律得到特高含水期开发指标的计算模型.该模型能够预测不同开发时间对应的含水率及采出程度指标,模型的参数容易被求解,模型的适用范围能够直线外推,实用性较强.运用该计算模型对大庆油田某口油井开发指标进行预测,所得含水率月平均误差为1. 306%,采出程度月平均误差为4. 950%,预测总体精度较高.
In order to accurately predict the reservoir development index during the extra-high water cut phase,we propose a model using the combination of polygonal line method and the Arps decline law. Firstly,we derive the equation for the second straight line segment of the type-A characteristic equation of water flooding by using the polygonal line method,and then verify the method by the actual well history data. For the oilfield 10 wells in study,we obtain that the water cut at the upturned point of the water flooding characteristic curve is between 90. 58% and96. 49% and the average of about 93. 49%,very close to the calculated water cut,93. 37%,at the turning point of the relationship curve between the logarithm of oil-water relative permeability ratio and water saturation. By combining with the Arps decline law,we obtain a calculation model of the reservoir development index during the extrahigh water cut period. The model can predict the recovery factor and water cut corresponding to the different development time. Moreover,the parameters in need for the model are easy to be obtained,and the model can be straight extrapolated with strong practicality. We also apply this model to predict the reservoir development index of a certain well in Daqing Oilfield. For this field example,the monthly-average error of water cut calculation is about 1. 306%,and the monthly-average calculated error of recovery factor is only 4. 950%,and thus the accuracy of new model for prediction is powerful.
In order to accurately predict the reservoir development index during the extra-high water cut phase,we propose a model using the combination of polygonal line method and the Arps decline law. Firstly,we derive the equation for the second straight line segment of the type-A characteristic equation of water flooding by using the polygonal line method,and then verify the method by the actual well history data. For the oilfield 10 wells in study,we obtain that the water cut at the upturned point of the water flooding characteristic curve is between 90. 58% and96. 49% and the average of about 93. 49%,very close to the calculated water cut,93. 37%,at the turning point of the relationship curve between the logarithm of oil-water relative permeability ratio and water saturation. By combining with the Arps decline law,we obtain a calculation model of the reservoir development index during the extrahigh water cut period. The model can predict the recovery factor and water cut corresponding to the different development time. Moreover,the parameters in need for the model are easy to be obtained,and the model can be straight extrapolated with strong practicality. We also apply this model to predict the reservoir development index of a certain well in Daqing Oilfield. For this field example,the monthly-average error of water cut calculation is about 1. 306%,and the monthly-average calculated error of recovery factor is only 4. 950%,and thus the accuracy of new model for prediction is powerful.
引文
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[12]陈元千,唐玮.广义递减模型的建立及应用[J].石油学报,2016,37(11):1410-1413.CHEN Yuanqian,TANG Wei.Establishment and application of generalized decline model[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2016,37(11):1410-1413.(in Chinese)
[13]姚建.4种水驱特征曲线与Arps递减曲线的关系[J].新疆石油地质,2016,37(4):447-451.YAO Jian.Relationships among 4 types of water-drive characteristic curves and Arps decline curve[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2016,37(4):447-451.(in Chinese)
[14]杜殿发,林新宇,巴忠臣,等.利用甲型水驱特征曲线计算相对渗透率曲线[J].特种油气藏,2013,20(5):93-96.DU Dianfa,LIN Xinyu,BA Zhongchen,et al.Calculation of relative permeability curve with Type A characteristic curve of water drive[J].Special Oil&Gas Reservoirs,2013,20(5):93-96.(in Chinese)
[15]王俊魁.水驱特征曲线与产量预测模型的联合应用[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(5):426-428.WANG Junkui.A joint application of displacement curve and production prediction model[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(5):426-428.(in Chinese)
[16]陈元千,赵庆飞.Hubbert模型与水驱曲线联解法[J].中国海上油气:地质,2001,15(3):194-199.CHEN Yuanqian,ZHAO Qingfei.A combined method of Hubbert model and water drive curve[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas(Geology),2001,15(3):194-199.(in Chinese)
[17]崔传智,徐建鹏,丁志莹,等.特高含水阶段水驱油藏开发指标计算方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(4):22-27,53.CUI Chuanzhi,XU Jianpeng,DING Zhiying,et al.Study on calculation method for development index of waterflooding reservoir in ultra-high water cut stage[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2016,16(4):22-27,53.(in Chinese)
[18]崔传智,徐建鹏,王端平,等.特高含水阶段新型水驱特征曲线[J].石油学报,2015,36(10):1267-1271.CUI Chuanzhi,XU Jianpeng,WANG Duanping,et al.Anew water flooding characteristic curve at ultra-high water cut stage[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2015,36(10):1267-1271.(in Chinese)
[19]WANG R R,HOU J,LI Z Q,et al.A new water displacement cure for the high water-cut stage[J].Petrolem Science and Technology,2013,31(13):1327-1334.
[20]高丽,宋考平,马春华,等.二段直线法预测高含水期油田开发指标[J].石油钻探技术,2008,36(5):72-74.GAO Li,SONG Kaoping,MA Chunhua,et al.Two straight lines to forecast development index of high watercut oilfield[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2008,36(5):72-74.(in Chinese)
[21]莫爱国,匡力,张继成.关于二段直线法的改进与理论推导[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(16):114-120.MO Aiguo,KUANG Li,ZHANG Jicheng.An improvement and theoretical derivation of two straight line method[J].Mathematics Practice and Theory,2017,47(16):114-120.(in Chinese)
[22]李珂,杨莉,张迎春,等.一种新型水驱特征曲线的推导及应用[J].断块油气田,2016,23(6):797-799.LI Ke,YANG Li,ZHANG Yingchun,et al.Derivation and application of new type of water flooding characteristic curve[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2016,23(6):797-799.(in Chinese)
[23]张金庆,杨仁锋.理论水驱曲线的提出及其与产量递减曲线的关系探讨[J].中国海上油气,2018,30(4):86-92.ZHANG Jinqing,YANG Renfeng.Proposing of theoretical waterflooding curve and discussion on the relationship between theoretical waterflooding curve and production decline curve[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2018,30(4):86-92.(in Chinese)
[2]宋兆杰,李治平,赖枫鹏,等.高含水期油田水驱特征曲线关系式的理论推导[J].石油勘探与开发,2013,40(2):201-208.SONG Zhaojie,LI Zhiping,LAI Fengpeng,et al.Derivation of water flooding characteristic curve for high watercut oilfields[J].Petroleum Exploration and Development,2013,40(2):201-208.(in Chinese)
[3]于波,孙新敏,杨勇,等.高含水期水驱特征曲线上翘时机的影响因素研究[J].石油天然气学报,2008(2):127-131,644.YU Bo,SUN Xinmin,YANG Yong,et al.Study on the influencing factors of uplift timing of water flooding characteristic curve in high water cut period[J].Journal of Oil and Gas Technology,2008(2):127-131,644.(in Chinese)
[4]ZHOU Zhibin,WANG Jiexiang.Research and application of a new type of water flooding characteristic curve in oilfield development[J].Advances in Petroleum Exploration and Development,2016,11(2):1-5.
[5]HUA Wen,LIU Yikun,NA Sun.A new water drive curve at ultra-high water cut stage and application in prediction of oilfield development[J].Journal of Petroleum Exploration and Production Technology,2017,4(7):1113-1123
[6]刘世华,谷建伟,杨仁锋.高含水期油藏特有水驱渗流规律研究[J].水动力学研究与进展A辑,2011,26(6):660-666.LIU Shihua,GU Jianwei,YANG Renfeng.Peculiar water-flooding law during high water-cut stage in oilfield[J].Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics,2011,26(6):660-666.(in Chinese)
[7]范海军,朱学谦.高含水期油田新型水驱特征曲线的推导及应用[J].断块油气田,2016,23(1):105-108.FAN Haijun,ZHU Xueqian.Derivation and application of new water flooding characteristic curve in high water-cut oilfield[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2016,23(1):105-108.(in Chinese)
[8]朱圣举,张皎生,安小平.剩余可采储量采油速度与Arps递减规律关系[J].特种油气藏,2016,23(4):105-108,156.ZHU Shengju,ZHANG Jiaosheng,AN Xiaoping.Relationship between recovery rate of residual recoverable reservior and arps decreasing rule[J].Special Oil&Gas Reservoirs,2016,23(4):105-108,156.(in Chinese)
[9]江雨涛,尚建林,王勇,等.Arps递减规律下的优化注水[J].新疆石油地质,2012,33(3):337-340.JIANG Yutao,SHANG Jianlin,WANG Yong,et al.Optimal injection allocation for regular pattern of Arps decline[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2012,33(3):337-340.(in Chinese)
[10]陈元千,周翠.线性递减类型的建立、对比与应用[J].石油学报,2015,36(8):983-987.CHEN Yuanqian,ZHOU Cui.Establishment,comparison and application of the linear decline type[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2015,36(8):983-987.(in Chinese)
[11]陈元千,邹存友.预测油田产量和可采储量模型的典型曲线及其应用[J].石油学报,2014,35(4):749-753.CHEN Yuanqian,ZOU Cunyou.Model's typical curve and its application for forecasting production and recoverable reserves of oilfields[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2014,35(4):749-753.(in Chinese)
[12]陈元千,唐玮.广义递减模型的建立及应用[J].石油学报,2016,37(11):1410-1413.CHEN Yuanqian,TANG Wei.Establishment and application of generalized decline model[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2016,37(11):1410-1413.(in Chinese)
[13]姚建.4种水驱特征曲线与Arps递减曲线的关系[J].新疆石油地质,2016,37(4):447-451.YAO Jian.Relationships among 4 types of water-drive characteristic curves and Arps decline curve[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2016,37(4):447-451.(in Chinese)
[14]杜殿发,林新宇,巴忠臣,等.利用甲型水驱特征曲线计算相对渗透率曲线[J].特种油气藏,2013,20(5):93-96.DU Dianfa,LIN Xinyu,BA Zhongchen,et al.Calculation of relative permeability curve with Type A characteristic curve of water drive[J].Special Oil&Gas Reservoirs,2013,20(5):93-96.(in Chinese)
[15]王俊魁.水驱特征曲线与产量预测模型的联合应用[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(5):426-428.WANG Junkui.A joint application of displacement curve and production prediction model[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(5):426-428.(in Chinese)
[16]陈元千,赵庆飞.Hubbert模型与水驱曲线联解法[J].中国海上油气:地质,2001,15(3):194-199.CHEN Yuanqian,ZHAO Qingfei.A combined method of Hubbert model and water drive curve[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas(Geology),2001,15(3):194-199.(in Chinese)
[17]崔传智,徐建鹏,丁志莹,等.特高含水阶段水驱油藏开发指标计算方法研究[J].科学技术与工程,2016,16(4):22-27,53.CUI Chuanzhi,XU Jianpeng,DING Zhiying,et al.Study on calculation method for development index of waterflooding reservoir in ultra-high water cut stage[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2016,16(4):22-27,53.(in Chinese)
[18]崔传智,徐建鹏,王端平,等.特高含水阶段新型水驱特征曲线[J].石油学报,2015,36(10):1267-1271.CUI Chuanzhi,XU Jianpeng,WANG Duanping,et al.Anew water flooding characteristic curve at ultra-high water cut stage[J].Acta Petrolei Sinica,2015,36(10):1267-1271.(in Chinese)
[19]WANG R R,HOU J,LI Z Q,et al.A new water displacement cure for the high water-cut stage[J].Petrolem Science and Technology,2013,31(13):1327-1334.
[20]高丽,宋考平,马春华,等.二段直线法预测高含水期油田开发指标[J].石油钻探技术,2008,36(5):72-74.GAO Li,SONG Kaoping,MA Chunhua,et al.Two straight lines to forecast development index of high watercut oilfield[J].Petroleum Drilling Techniques,2008,36(5):72-74.(in Chinese)
[21]莫爱国,匡力,张继成.关于二段直线法的改进与理论推导[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(16):114-120.MO Aiguo,KUANG Li,ZHANG Jicheng.An improvement and theoretical derivation of two straight line method[J].Mathematics Practice and Theory,2017,47(16):114-120.(in Chinese)
[22]李珂,杨莉,张迎春,等.一种新型水驱特征曲线的推导及应用[J].断块油气田,2016,23(6):797-799.LI Ke,YANG Li,ZHANG Yingchun,et al.Derivation and application of new type of water flooding characteristic curve[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,2016,23(6):797-799.(in Chinese)
[23]张金庆,杨仁锋.理论水驱曲线的提出及其与产量递减曲线的关系探讨[J].中国海上油气,2018,30(4):86-92.ZHANG Jinqing,YANG Renfeng.Proposing of theoretical waterflooding curve and discussion on the relationship between theoretical waterflooding curve and production decline curve[J].China Offshore Oil and Gas,2018,30(4):86-92.(in Chinese)