预测水驱油田含水率的Von Bertalanffy模型
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摘要
基于水驱油田含水率的变化规律,将预测生物生长的Von Bertalanffy模型用于含水率预测,并取极限含水率为1。根据油田实际生产数据,应用最大线性相关系数求得模型常数b和k的值,得到预测水驱油田含水率随开发时间变化的新模型,并利用胜坨油田和双河油田的实际含水率数据对该模型进行验证。结果表明,这2个油田的含水率预测结果的平均相对误差分别为4.69%和1.12%。该模型预测精度较高,能够对油田含水率进行预测,可指导水驱油田的开发。
Based on the changing law of water cut in water flood field, Von Bertalanffy model for predicting biological growth was used to predict water cut, and the limit water cut is 1. Based on the actual data of oilfield, the value of model constant was obtained by maximum linear correlation coefficient, and a new model for predicting water cut change with developing time in water flood field. This model was validated by actual water cut value from Shengtuo Oilfield and Shuanghe Oilfield. The result shows that the relative errors of the water cut in the two fields are 4.69% and 1.12% respectively. The prediction accuracy of this model is high, therefore, it can be used to predict water cut of oilfield and guide development of water flood field.
Based on the changing law of water cut in water flood field, Von Bertalanffy model for predicting biological growth was used to predict water cut, and the limit water cut is 1. Based on the actual data of oilfield, the value of model constant was obtained by maximum linear correlation coefficient, and a new model for predicting water cut change with developing time in water flood field. This model was validated by actual water cut value from Shengtuo Oilfield and Shuanghe Oilfield. The result shows that the relative errors of the water cut in the two fields are 4.69% and 1.12% respectively. The prediction accuracy of this model is high, therefore, it can be used to predict water cut of oilfield and guide development of water flood field.
引文
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[14]沈楠,杜军社,王国先,等.应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律[J].新疆石油地质,2007,28(5):609-611.Shen Nan,Du Junshe,Wang Guoxian,et al.Using normal probability model to forecast performance of water cut in waterflood oilfield[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2007,28(5):609-611.
[15]曹渠江.IBM AT计算机上的von Bertalanffy鱼类生长方程的计算程序设计[J].水产学报,1988,12(1):71-80.Cao Qujiang.Programming of Von Bertalanffy fishes growing eqation on IBM AT computer system[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,1988,12(1):71-80.
[16]宛新荣,刘伟,王梦军,等.常见生物生长模型的时差性分析及其应用[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(5):1159-1162.Wan Xinrong,Liu Wei,Wang Mengjun,et al.Time shift invariant properties of commonly used grow models and their application[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(5):1159-1162.
[2]王涛,赵进义.底水油藏水平井含水变化影响因素分析[J].岩性油气藏,2012,24(3):103-107.Wang Tao,Zhao Jinyi.Influencing factors of water cut for horizontal wells in bottom water reservoir[J].Lithologic Reservoirs,2012,24(3):103-107.
[3]何俊,陈小凡,乐平,等.线性回归方法在油气产量递减分析中的应用[J].岩性油气藏,2009,21(2):103-105.He Jun,Chen Xiaofan,Yue Ping,et al.Application of linear regression method to analysis of oil and gas production rate decline[J].Lithologic Reservoirs,2009,21(2):103-105.
[4]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984:89-92.Wen Wenbo.Theory of forecasting[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984:89-92.
[5]陈元千.油气藏工程实用方法[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1999:132-135.Chen Yuanqian.Practical method of oil and gas reservoir engineering[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1999:132-135.
[6]王炜,刘鹏程.预测水驱油田含水率的Gompertz模型[J].新疆石油学院学报,2001,13(4):30-32.Wang Wei,Liu Pengcheng.The predicting model Gompertz of watercut rate in water-flood oil field[J].Journal of Xinjiang Petroleum Institute,2001,13(4):30-32.
[7]徐学品,孙健评,孙来喜,等.一种预测水驱油田含水率的模型[J].新疆石油地质,1999,20(4):150-152.Xu Xuepin,Sun Jianping,Sun Laixi,et al.A model for predicting water cut of water drive oilfield[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1999,20(4):150-152.
[8]陈元千.对预测含水率的翁氏模型推导[J].新疆石油地质,1998,19(5):403-405.Chen Yuanqian.Deduction of Weng’s model for watercut prediction[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,1998,19(5):403-405.
[9]刘鹏程,牟珍宝,刘玉涛.逻辑斯蒂旋回模型在预测油田含水率时的修正[J].断块油气田,1999,6(6):40-42.Liu Pengcheng,Mu Zhenbo,Liu Yutao.Modification of Logistic Cycle model for water cut prediction[J].Fault-Block Oil and Gas Field,1999,6(6):40-42.
[10]蒋明,宋富霞.Usher模型的特征分析及应用[J].天然气工业,1998,18(4):69-73.Jiang Ming,Song Fuxia.Characteristic analysis of Usher model and its application[J].Natural Gas Industry,1998,18(4):69-73.
[11]张居增,张烈辉,张红梅,等.预测水驱油田含水率的Usher模型[J].新疆石油地质,2004,25(2):191-192.Zhang Juzeng,Zhang Liehui,Zhang Hongmei,et al.Usher model for watercut prediction in waterflood field[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2004,25(2):191-192.
[12]马春生,万宠文,崔秀敏,等.预测水驱油田含水率的一种新方法[J].大庆石油地质与开发,2006,25(3):43-44.Ma Chunsheng,Wan Chongwen,Cui Xiumin,et al.A new method for predicting water cut in waterflooded oilfield[J].Petroleum Geology and Oilfield Development in Daqing,2006,25(3):43-44.
[13]俞启泰.论Usher.Logistic和Gompertz三种增长曲线的使用价值[J].新疆石油地质,2001,22(2):136-141.Yu Qitai.On the usefulness of Usher,Logistic and Gompertz curves[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2001,22(2):136-141.
[14]沈楠,杜军社,王国先,等.应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律[J].新疆石油地质,2007,28(5):609-611.Shen Nan,Du Junshe,Wang Guoxian,et al.Using normal probability model to forecast performance of water cut in waterflood oilfield[J].Xinjiang Petroleum Geology,2007,28(5):609-611.
[15]曹渠江.IBM AT计算机上的von Bertalanffy鱼类生长方程的计算程序设计[J].水产学报,1988,12(1):71-80.Cao Qujiang.Programming of Von Bertalanffy fishes growing eqation on IBM AT computer system[J].Journal of Fisheries of China,1988,12(1):71-80.
[16]宛新荣,刘伟,王梦军,等.常见生物生长模型的时差性分析及其应用[J].应用生态学报,2007,18(5):1159-1162.Wan Xinrong,Liu Wei,Wang Mengjun,et al.Time shift invariant properties of commonly used grow models and their application[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2007,18(5):1159-1162.