开都河源流区径流的非线性变化特征及其对气候波动的响应
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摘要
非线性是现代水文学研究的重要前沿问题之一,对揭示水文系统变化规律及其复杂性具有重要意义。基于开都河源流区气象和水文站1960-2012年实测数据,采用集合经验模态分解方法,对研究期内开都河年径流时间序列进行多尺度分析,并探讨其在不同时间尺度上的非线性变化特征及其对气候因子的多尺度响应。研究结果表明:(1)近50年来,开都河年径流整体上呈现出显著的非线性增加趋势,且其变化在年际尺度上表现出准2~3a和准4~5a的周期性波动,在年代际尺度上表现出准10~11a和准26~27a的周期性变化;(2)各周期分量的方差贡献率表明,年际振荡在径流长期变化中占据主导地位,年代际尺度在径流变化过程中也起着重要作用;(3)重构的径流年际变化能够较为详细地描述原始径流序列在整个研究时段的波动状况,二者在变化趋势上基本是一致的;重构的径流年代际变化则有效揭示了开都河径流量在1995年出现了由负距平到正距平的转折;(4)在重构的年际尺度和年代际尺度上,降水与径流的相关性都强于气温、潜在蒸发与径流的相关性,说明降水是影响开都河径流变化的决定性因素;而在年代际尺度上降水、气温和潜在蒸发的相关性都要明显强于年际尺度,表明年代际尺度是评价该区径流对气候波动响应过程的较佳尺度。
Nonlinearity is one of important frontier issues in the field of modern hydrology. It is of great significance to discover the variation and the complexity of the hydrological system. On the basis of hydrological and meteorological data in the headwater region of the Kaidu River from1960 to 2012,multi-scale characteristics of runoff variability were analyzed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to investigate nonlinear change characteristics of runoff at different time scales and multi-scale responses to climate fluctuation. We found that in the past 50 years,the overall runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang has exhibited a significant non-linear increasing trend,and changes have manifested at quasi-2~3 and quasi-4~5 year inter-annual scales and showed quasi-10~11 and quasi-26~27 year inter-decadal scales. Variance contribution rates of each periodic component showed that inter-annual change held a dominant position in the longterm change of runoff,and inter-decadal change also played an important role in the overall runoff change for Kaidu River. Reconstructed inter-annual variation describes the fluctuation state of original runoff during the study period,that is to say the trends of both are basically the same. The reconstructed inter-decadal variability shows that the runoff of Kaidu River underwent a significant transition in 1995 from low to high,namely the state of runoff anomaly shifting from a negative phase to a positive abundance water period. In addition,we found that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is more relevant and significant at both the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales compared to the correlation between runoff and temperature and potential evaporation,indicating that precipitation is the decisive factor for changes in runoff. Corrections between runoff and precipitation,temperature and potential evaporation are more significant and relevant at the inter-decadal scale than inter-annual scale,suggesting that the inter-decadal scale is more suitable for investigating responses of runoff dynamics to climate fluctuation.
Nonlinearity is one of important frontier issues in the field of modern hydrology. It is of great significance to discover the variation and the complexity of the hydrological system. On the basis of hydrological and meteorological data in the headwater region of the Kaidu River from1960 to 2012,multi-scale characteristics of runoff variability were analyzed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to investigate nonlinear change characteristics of runoff at different time scales and multi-scale responses to climate fluctuation. We found that in the past 50 years,the overall runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang has exhibited a significant non-linear increasing trend,and changes have manifested at quasi-2~3 and quasi-4~5 year inter-annual scales and showed quasi-10~11 and quasi-26~27 year inter-decadal scales. Variance contribution rates of each periodic component showed that inter-annual change held a dominant position in the longterm change of runoff,and inter-decadal change also played an important role in the overall runoff change for Kaidu River. Reconstructed inter-annual variation describes the fluctuation state of original runoff during the study period,that is to say the trends of both are basically the same. The reconstructed inter-decadal variability shows that the runoff of Kaidu River underwent a significant transition in 1995 from low to high,namely the state of runoff anomaly shifting from a negative phase to a positive abundance water period. In addition,we found that the correlation between runoff and precipitation is more relevant and significant at both the inter-annual and inter-decadal scales compared to the correlation between runoff and temperature and potential evaporation,indicating that precipitation is the decisive factor for changes in runoff. Corrections between runoff and precipitation,temperature and potential evaporation are more significant and relevant at the inter-decadal scale than inter-annual scale,suggesting that the inter-decadal scale is more suitable for investigating responses of runoff dynamics to climate fluctuation.
引文
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[4]张一驰,李宝林,程维明,等.开都河流域径流对气候变化的响应研究[J].资源科学,2004,26(6):69-76.[Zhang Y C,Li B L,Cheng W M,et al.Hydrological response of runoff to climate variation in Kaidu Catchment[J].Resources Science,2004,26(6):69-76.]
[5]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013.
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[7]夏军,刘春蓁,任国玉.气候变化对我国水资源影响研究面临的机遇与挑战[J].地球科学进展,2011,26(1):1-12.[Xia J,Liu C Z,Ren G Y.Opportunity and challenge of the climate change impact on the water resource of China[J].Advances in Earth Science,2011,26(1):1-12.]
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[10]高前兆,王润,Giese E.气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(1):1-11.[Gao Q Z,Wang R,Giese E.Impact of climate change on surface runoff of Tarim River originating from the south slopes of the Tianshan Mountains[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(1):1-11.]
[11]陈亚宁,徐长春,杨余辉,等.新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2009,64(11):1331-1341.[Chen Y N,Xu C C,Yang Y H,et al.Hydrology and water resources variation and its responses to regional climate change in Xinjiang[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(11):1331-1341.]
[12]赵直,徐晗.新疆开都河流域近50a径流量年际年内变化及其对气候变化的响应分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(10):151-156.[Zhao Z,Xu H.The response of runoff variance in the Kaidu River Basin to the climate changes[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(10):151-156.]
[13]Xu J H,Li W H,Ji M H,et al.A comprehensive approach to characterization of the nonlinearity of runoff in the headwaters of the Tarim River,western China[J].Hydrological Processes,2010,24(2):136-146.
[14]Xu J H,Chen Y N,Li W H,et al.Combining BPANN and wavelet analysis to simulate hydro-climatic processes-a case study of the Kaidu River,Northwest China[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2013,7(2):227-237.
[15]赵直,徐晗.极点对称模态分解下中国新疆温度变化趋势的区域特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(12):2358-2366.[Zhao Z,Xu H.The research of temperature variation trends over Xinjiang in China by extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition method[J].Geographical Research,2014,33(12):2358-2366.]
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[17]Wu Z H,Huang N E.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:a noise-assisted data analysis method[J].Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(1):1-41.
[18]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time series analysis[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,1998,454(1971):903-995.
[19]Wu Z H,Huang N E,Wallace J M,et al.On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature[J].Climate Dynamics,2011,37(3-4):759-773.
[20]王兵,李晓东.基于EEMD分解的欧洲温度序列的多尺度分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47(4):627-635.[Wang B,Li X D.Multi-scale fluctuation of European temperature revealed by EEMD analysis[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2011,47(4):627-635.]
[21]薛春芳,侯威,赵俊虎,等.集合经验模态分解在区域降水变化多尺度分析及气候变化响应研究中的应用[J].物理学报,2013,62(10):10923-1:109203-8.[Xue C F,Hou W,Zhao J H,et al.The application of ensemble empirical mode decomposition method in multiscale analysis of region precipitation and its response to the climate change[J].Acta Phys Sin,2013,62(10):10923-1:109203-8.]
[22]刘天虎,刘天龙.集合经验模态分解下中国新疆降水变化趋势的区域特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2015,9(4):17-24.[Liu T H,Liu T L.Regional features of precipitation variation trends over Xinjiang in China by the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2015,9(4):17-24.]
[23]Kuo C C,Gan T Y,Chan S.Regional intensity-duration frequency curves derived from ensemble empirical mode decomposition and scaling property[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2013,18(1):66-74.
[24]Qian C,Zhou T J.Multidecadal variability of North China aridity and its relationship to PDO during 1900-2010[J].Journal of Climate,2014,27(3):1210-1222.
[25]邵骏,吕孙云,钱晓燕,等.基于总体经验模态分解的水文序列多尺度分析[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(11):105-108.[Shao J,Lv S Y,Qian X Y,et al.Multi-scale analysis of hydrological series using ensemble empirical mode decomposition[J].J Huazhong Univ.Sci.&Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(11):105-108.]
[26]Chen Z S,Chen Y N,Li B F.Quantifying the effects of climate vari-ability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2013,111(3-4):537-545.
[27]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al.Crop EvapotranspirationGuidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements[R].Rome:FAO,1998.
[28]Chen Z S,Chen Y N.Effects of climate fluctuations on runoff in the headwater region of the Kaidu River in northwestern China[J].Frontiers of Earth Science,2014,8(2):309-318.
[29]姚俊强,刘志辉,杨青,等.近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2014,69(3):291-302.[Yao J Q,Liu Z H,Yang Q,et al.Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(3):291-302.]
[30]Qian W H,Lu B.Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2010,55(35):4052-4057.
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