基于辽西地区降雨径流的非线性扰动响应评估
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摘要
根据SLM模型对辽西4个区域的降水径流非线性扰动响应进行模拟分析,结果表明:70年代至今,辽西4个典型干旱半干旱区域降水径流非线性显著,降水变化率在-3.3%―14.2%,径流变化率在-15.1%―-65.8%,径流的非线性变化逐年增强。线性模型下各典型区域NSE和R2的评估值均低于0.6,故采用非线性模型对辽西干旱半干旱区域降水径流进行模拟。
According to the SLM model of the 4 regional rainfall runoff nonlinear disturbance response simulation analysis results show that since 70 s,4 typical drought in semi-arid area rainfall runoff nonlinear significantly,precipitation change rate in-3.3% ~14.2%,the runoff change rate in-15.1% ~-65.8%,the nonlinear variation of runoff is increasing year by year.Under the linear model,the evaluation values of NSE and R2 in the typical regions are less than 0.6,so the nonlinear model is used to simulate the precipitation and runoff in arid and semi-arid regions of western Liaoning.
According to the SLM model of the 4 regional rainfall runoff nonlinear disturbance response simulation analysis results show that since 70 s,4 typical drought in semi-arid area rainfall runoff nonlinear significantly,precipitation change rate in-3.3% ~14.2%,the runoff change rate in-15.1% ~-65.8%,the nonlinear variation of runoff is increasing year by year.Under the linear model,the evaluation values of NSE and R2 in the typical regions are less than 0.6,so the nonlinear model is used to simulate the precipitation and runoff in arid and semi-arid regions of western Liaoning.
引文
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[3]王巧娟.白龙江流域降水径流变化趋势研究[J].水利规划与设计,2015(4):41-44.
[4]刘祖涵.塔里木河流域气候—水文过程的复杂性与非线性研究[D].华东师范大学,2014.
[5]武夏宁,江燕.年径流预报的非线性混合回归模型研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2010(11):8-10+14.
[6]王巧平.天然年径流量系列一致性修正方法的改进[J].水利规划与设计,2003(2):38-40.
[7]赵玉涛,余新晓,张志强,邓燕,程根伟.长江上游亚高山降水与径流时间序列的非线性特征[J].北京林业大学学报,2002(4):72-74.
[8]万蕙,夏军,张利平,宋霁云,佘敦先.淮河流域水文非线性多水源时变增益模型研究与应用[J].水文,2015,35(3):14-19.
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