新疆克里雅河径流量变化的气候响应
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摘要
基于1957—2013年克里雅河源流区兰干水文站径流、气温、降水观测数据,运用小波分析、M-K突变等方法,以时间序列进行非线性、多尺度响应分析。结果表明:(1)克里雅河径流量和气温呈非线性显著上升,降水量和蒸发量略有上升。(2)在年际尺度上,源流区径流存在8 a周期,气温、降水存在12 a周期;在年代际尺度上,径流存在22 a周期,气温、降水、蒸发量存在28 a周期,同时蒸发量还存有22 a周期。(3)在年际尺度上,径流与降水成正相关,而与气温、蒸发量成负相关;在年代际尺度上,径流与气温相关性更高,受气温影响更显著。(4)在周期振荡上,气温与蒸发量具有一致性;在对气候变化响应上,径流对气温、降水、蒸发变化呈交错滞后响应,该模式对克里雅河径流有削丰补枯的调节作用。(5)与乌鲁木齐河相比,克里雅河径流较乌鲁木齐河在突变时间上存在近10 a滞后,20世纪90年代克里雅河流域气温的异常偏低是引起突变滞后的主要原因。
The characteristics of runoff are crucial for water resources management,water supply planning,environmental protection and ecological regeneration,and the temperature change caused by climate change decreases the stability of surface flow. In this study,the data of runoff volume,air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from Langan Hydrological Station,a management agency of the Keriya River Basin were used to analyze the sources of runoff with the wavelet analysis and M-K mutation test,and the response of runoff volume to temperature and precipitation change was also analyzed. The results showed that:(1) In the past 57 years,the runoff volume and air temperature in the Keriya River Basin was in a significant non-linear upward trend,while the increase of precipitation and evaporation was not obvious;(2) On the interannual scale,there was an 8 a period of runoff volume in the headwaters,and also a 12 a period of temperature and precipitation change. On the interdecadal scale,there was a22 year period of runoff volume change,and also a 28 year period of the change of temperature,precipitation and evaporation. Moreover,there was a 22 a period of evaporation change;(3) Runoff volume was affected by both temperature and precipitation. On the interannual scale,runoff volume was positively correlated with precipitation,but negatively with temperature and evaporation. However,on the interdecadal scale,the correlation between runoff volume and air temperature was higher,and the effect of temperature on runoff volume was more significant;(4) In the periodic oscillation,temperature was in accordance with evaporation. The response of runoff volume change to the changes of temperature,precipitation and evaporation was time-lagged,such mode could regulate runoff volume of the Keriya River;(5) Compared with the Urumqi River,the mutation of runoff volume of the Keriya River lagged for about 10 years,which was caused by the low temperature in the Keriya River Basin in the 1990 s.
The characteristics of runoff are crucial for water resources management,water supply planning,environmental protection and ecological regeneration,and the temperature change caused by climate change decreases the stability of surface flow. In this study,the data of runoff volume,air temperature,precipitation and evaporation from Langan Hydrological Station,a management agency of the Keriya River Basin were used to analyze the sources of runoff with the wavelet analysis and M-K mutation test,and the response of runoff volume to temperature and precipitation change was also analyzed. The results showed that:(1) In the past 57 years,the runoff volume and air temperature in the Keriya River Basin was in a significant non-linear upward trend,while the increase of precipitation and evaporation was not obvious;(2) On the interannual scale,there was an 8 a period of runoff volume in the headwaters,and also a 12 a period of temperature and precipitation change. On the interdecadal scale,there was a22 year period of runoff volume change,and also a 28 year period of the change of temperature,precipitation and evaporation. Moreover,there was a 22 a period of evaporation change;(3) Runoff volume was affected by both temperature and precipitation. On the interannual scale,runoff volume was positively correlated with precipitation,but negatively with temperature and evaporation. However,on the interdecadal scale,the correlation between runoff volume and air temperature was higher,and the effect of temperature on runoff volume was more significant;(4) In the periodic oscillation,temperature was in accordance with evaporation. The response of runoff volume change to the changes of temperature,precipitation and evaporation was time-lagged,such mode could regulate runoff volume of the Keriya River;(5) Compared with the Urumqi River,the mutation of runoff volume of the Keriya River lagged for about 10 years,which was caused by the low temperature in the Keriya River Basin in the 1990 s.
引文
[1] Chen Y,Li B,Li Z,et al. Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,26(7):939-952.
[2] IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3] Liu X,Zhang M,Wang S,et al. Assessment of diurnal variation of summer precipitation over the Qilian Mountains based on an hourly merged dataset from 2008 to 2014[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(3):326-336.
[4]张强,赵映东,张存杰,等.西北干旱区水循环与水资源问题[J].干旱气象,2008,26(2):1-8.[Zhang Qiang,Zhao Yingdong,Zhang Cunjie,et al. Issues about hydrological cycle and water resource in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Arid Meteorology,2008,26(2):1-8.]
[5]李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J].地理科学,2013,33(4):457-464.[Li Fengping,Zhang Guangxin,Dong Liqin. Studies for impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(4):457-464.]
[6]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.[Shi Yafeng,Shen Yongping,Li Dongliang,et al. Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China[J]. Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(2):152-164.]
[7]商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):68-76.[Shang Shasha,Lian Lishu,Ma Ting,et al. Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):68-76.]
[8]任国玉,袁玉江,柳艳菊,等.我国西北干燥区降水变化规律[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):1-19.[Ren Guoyu,Yuan Yujiang,Liu Yanju,et al. Changes in precipitation over Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2016,33(1):1-19.]
[9]蓝永超,钟英君,吴素芬,等.天山南、北坡典型河流出山径流对气候变化响应的分析对比[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):254-260.[Lan Yongchao,Zhong Yingjun,Wu Sufen,et al. Response of mountain runoff to climate change in representative rivers originated from the Tianshan Mountain[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2011,31(1):254-260.]
[10]蓝永超,仵彦卿,康尔泗,等.祁连山北麓出山径流对气候变化的响应[J].兰州大学学报,2001,37(4):125-132.[Lan Yongchao,Wu Yanqing,Kang Ersi,et al. Response of runoff from the northern slope of the Qilian Mountain to global climatic changes[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University,2001,37(4):125-132.]
[11]折远洋,李忠勤,张明军,等.近51 a来乌鲁木齐河源区径流特征及对气候变化的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(12):113-118.[She Yuanyang,Li Zhongqin,Zhang Mingjun,et al. Response of stream flow to climate change at the headwaters of Urumqi River in the Tianshan mountains over the recent 51 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(12):113-118.]
[12]张强,俞亚勋,张杰.祁连山与河西内陆河流域绿洲的大气水循环特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):907-913.[Zhang Qiang,Yu Yaxun,Zhang Jie. Characteristics of water cycle in the Qilian Mountain sand the Oases in Hexi inland river basins[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(6):907-913.]
[13]张强,张杰,孙国武,等.祁连山区空中水汽分布特征研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):633-643.[Zhang Qiang,Zhang Jie,Sun Guowu,et al. Research atmospheric water-vapor distribution over Qilian Mountain[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,65(4):633-643.]
[14]王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.近30 a来开都河上游径流量变化的气候响应[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):743-748.[Wang Weixia,Wang Xiujun,Jiang Fengqing,et al. Response of runoff volume to climate change in the Kaidu River basin in recent 30years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2013,30(4):743-748.]
[15]胡文康,张立运.克里雅河下游荒漠河岸植被的历史、现状和前景[J].干旱区地理,1990,13(1):46-51.[Hu Wenkang,Zhang Liyun. History present condition and prospects of desert vegetation in the lower reaches of Keliya River[J]. Arid Land Geography,1990,13(1):46-51.]
[16]于延胜,陈兴伟.水文序列变异的差积曲线-秩检验联合识别法在闽江流域的应用——以竹岐站年径流序列为例[J].资源科学,2009,31(10):1 717-1 721.[Yu Yansheng,Chen Xingwei. Difference curve-rank test method for detecting the change point in hydrological time series[J]. Resources Science,2009,31(10):1 717-1 721.]
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:70-76.[Wei Fengying. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999:70-76.]
[18]张长江,付梦印,金梅.基于离散正交小波变换的红外图像去噪方法[J].红外与激光工程,2003,32(4):401-406.[Zhang Changjiang,Fu Mengyin,Jin Mei. Method of infrared image denoising based on discrete orthogonal wavelet transform[J]. Infrared and Laser Engineering,2003,32(4):401-406.]
[19]Donoho D L,Johnstone I M,Kerkyacharian G,et al. Wavelet shrinkage:Asymptopia?[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B(Methodological),1995:301-369.
[20]Dyurgerov M B,Meier M F. Twentieth century climate change:Evidence from small glaciers[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2000,97(4):1 406-1 411.
[21]陈荷生.水在克里雅河流域生态地理环境中的作用[J].中国沙漠,1988,8(2):38-53.[Chen Hesheng. Effect of water in Eco-geographic environment of the Keriya River valley[J]. Journal of Desert Research,1988,3(2):38-53.]
[22]张强,胡隐樵,曹晓彦,等.论西北干旱气候的若干问题[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(4):357-362.[Zhang Qiang,Hu Yinqiao,Cao Xiaoyan,et al. On some problems of arid climate system of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2000,20(4):357-362.]
[23]许君利,刘时银,张世强,等.塔里木盆地南缘喀拉米兰河克里雅河流内流区近30 a来的冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):312-318.[Xu Junli,Liu Shiyin,Zhang Shiqiang,et al.Glaciers fluctuations in the Karamilan Keriya River watershed in the past 30 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):312-318.]
[24]黄玉英,刘景时,商思臣,等.昆仑山克里雅河冬季径流及冻土与气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(2):174-178.[Huang Yuying,Liu Jingshi,Shang Sichen,et al. Study on monthly runoff volume in winter,frozen earth and climate change in the Keriya River basin in the Kunlun Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(2):174-178.]
[25]叶柏生,丁永建,杨大庆,等.近50 a西北地区年径流变化反映的区域气候差异[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):307-311.[Ye Baisheng,Ding Yongjian,Yang Daqing,et al. Regional parttens of climate change in Northwest China during the last 50 years viewed from annual discharge change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):307-311.]
[26]Wang N,Yao T,Pu J,et al. Variations in air temperature during the last 100 years revealed byδ18O in the Malan ice core from the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):2 134-2 138.
[2] IPCC. Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[3] Liu X,Zhang M,Wang S,et al. Assessment of diurnal variation of summer precipitation over the Qilian Mountains based on an hourly merged dataset from 2008 to 2014[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(3):326-336.
[4]张强,赵映东,张存杰,等.西北干旱区水循环与水资源问题[J].干旱气象,2008,26(2):1-8.[Zhang Qiang,Zhao Yingdong,Zhang Cunjie,et al. Issues about hydrological cycle and water resource in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Arid Meteorology,2008,26(2):1-8.]
[5]李峰平,章光新,董李勤.气候变化对水循环与水资源的影响研究综述[J].地理科学,2013,33(4):457-464.[Li Fengping,Zhang Guangxin,Dong Liqin. Studies for impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(4):457-464.]
[6]施雅风,沈永平,李栋梁,等.中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J].第四纪研究,2003,23(2):152-164.[Shi Yafeng,Shen Yongping,Li Dongliang,et al. Discussion on the present climate change from warm-dry to warm-wet in Northwest China[J]. Quaternary Sciences,2003,23(2):152-164.]
[7]商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):68-76.[Shang Shasha,Lian Lishu,Ma Ting,et al. Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):68-76.]
[8]任国玉,袁玉江,柳艳菊,等.我国西北干燥区降水变化规律[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):1-19.[Ren Guoyu,Yuan Yujiang,Liu Yanju,et al. Changes in precipitation over Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research,2016,33(1):1-19.]
[9]蓝永超,钟英君,吴素芬,等.天山南、北坡典型河流出山径流对气候变化响应的分析对比[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(1):254-260.[Lan Yongchao,Zhong Yingjun,Wu Sufen,et al. Response of mountain runoff to climate change in representative rivers originated from the Tianshan Mountain[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2011,31(1):254-260.]
[10]蓝永超,仵彦卿,康尔泗,等.祁连山北麓出山径流对气候变化的响应[J].兰州大学学报,2001,37(4):125-132.[Lan Yongchao,Wu Yanqing,Kang Ersi,et al. Response of runoff from the northern slope of the Qilian Mountain to global climatic changes[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University,2001,37(4):125-132.]
[11]折远洋,李忠勤,张明军,等.近51 a来乌鲁木齐河源区径流特征及对气候变化的响应[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,26(12):113-118.[She Yuanyang,Li Zhongqin,Zhang Mingjun,et al. Response of stream flow to climate change at the headwaters of Urumqi River in the Tianshan mountains over the recent 51 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,26(12):113-118.]
[12]张强,俞亚勋,张杰.祁连山与河西内陆河流域绿洲的大气水循环特征研究[J].冰川冻土,2008,30(6):907-913.[Zhang Qiang,Yu Yaxun,Zhang Jie. Characteristics of water cycle in the Qilian Mountain sand the Oases in Hexi inland river basins[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2008,30(6):907-913.]
[13]张强,张杰,孙国武,等.祁连山区空中水汽分布特征研究[J].气象学报,2007,65(4):633-643.[Zhang Qiang,Zhang Jie,Sun Guowu,et al. Research atmospheric water-vapor distribution over Qilian Mountain[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,65(4):633-643.]
[14]王维霞,王秀君,姜逢清,等.近30 a来开都河上游径流量变化的气候响应[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):743-748.[Wang Weixia,Wang Xiujun,Jiang Fengqing,et al. Response of runoff volume to climate change in the Kaidu River basin in recent 30years[J]. Arid Zone Research,2013,30(4):743-748.]
[15]胡文康,张立运.克里雅河下游荒漠河岸植被的历史、现状和前景[J].干旱区地理,1990,13(1):46-51.[Hu Wenkang,Zhang Liyun. History present condition and prospects of desert vegetation in the lower reaches of Keliya River[J]. Arid Land Geography,1990,13(1):46-51.]
[16]于延胜,陈兴伟.水文序列变异的差积曲线-秩检验联合识别法在闽江流域的应用——以竹岐站年径流序列为例[J].资源科学,2009,31(10):1 717-1 721.[Yu Yansheng,Chen Xingwei. Difference curve-rank test method for detecting the change point in hydrological time series[J]. Resources Science,2009,31(10):1 717-1 721.]
[17]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:70-76.[Wei Fengying. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999:70-76.]
[18]张长江,付梦印,金梅.基于离散正交小波变换的红外图像去噪方法[J].红外与激光工程,2003,32(4):401-406.[Zhang Changjiang,Fu Mengyin,Jin Mei. Method of infrared image denoising based on discrete orthogonal wavelet transform[J]. Infrared and Laser Engineering,2003,32(4):401-406.]
[19]Donoho D L,Johnstone I M,Kerkyacharian G,et al. Wavelet shrinkage:Asymptopia?[J]. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B(Methodological),1995:301-369.
[20]Dyurgerov M B,Meier M F. Twentieth century climate change:Evidence from small glaciers[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2000,97(4):1 406-1 411.
[21]陈荷生.水在克里雅河流域生态地理环境中的作用[J].中国沙漠,1988,8(2):38-53.[Chen Hesheng. Effect of water in Eco-geographic environment of the Keriya River valley[J]. Journal of Desert Research,1988,3(2):38-53.]
[22]张强,胡隐樵,曹晓彦,等.论西北干旱气候的若干问题[J].中国沙漠,2000,20(4):357-362.[Zhang Qiang,Hu Yinqiao,Cao Xiaoyan,et al. On some problems of arid climate system of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Desert Research,2000,20(4):357-362.]
[23]许君利,刘时银,张世强,等.塔里木盆地南缘喀拉米兰河克里雅河流内流区近30 a来的冰川变化研究[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):312-318.[Xu Junli,Liu Shiyin,Zhang Shiqiang,et al.Glaciers fluctuations in the Karamilan Keriya River watershed in the past 30 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):312-318.]
[24]黄玉英,刘景时,商思臣,等.昆仑山克里雅河冬季径流及冻土与气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(2):174-178.[Huang Yuying,Liu Jingshi,Shang Sichen,et al. Study on monthly runoff volume in winter,frozen earth and climate change in the Keriya River basin in the Kunlun Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(2):174-178.]
[25]叶柏生,丁永建,杨大庆,等.近50 a西北地区年径流变化反映的区域气候差异[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(3):307-311.[Ye Baisheng,Ding Yongjian,Yang Daqing,et al. Regional parttens of climate change in Northwest China during the last 50 years viewed from annual discharge change[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(3):307-311.]
[26]Wang N,Yao T,Pu J,et al. Variations in air temperature during the last 100 years revealed byδ18O in the Malan ice core from the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):2 134-2 138.