多GCM模型集合下开都河流域未来气候变化预估
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摘要
基于逐步聚类分析的统计降尺度模型(SCADS模型),在多GCM模型集合的9个大尺度气象变量与开都河流域6个气象变量之间,建立统计降尺度关系,并进行开都河流域未来气候变化的预估。结果表明,SCADS模型生成的开都河流域各气象变量的模拟值与实测值拟合较好。各气象变量在率定期(1961年-1990年)和验证期(1991年-1999年)的NSE系数均大于0.55,精度较高。此外,利用SCADS模型进行开都河流域各气象变量的预估。发现在三个不同时期内(2011年-2040年,2041年-2070年和2071年-2100年),月均气温升高,月均蒸发量、降水量、日照时数增加,月均相对湿度升高。
A statistical downscaling model that based on the stepwise-cluster analysis(SCADS),was employed to establish a statistical downscaling relationship between the large-scale climate variables from the multi-ensemble GCM,and the regional climate variables of the Kaidu River basin,as well as to calculate the prediction of climate change in the future.The results indicated that the outputs of SCADS could model the climate variables of Kaidu River basin with a satisfactory.The NSE for all climate variables in the calibration(1961-1990)and validation(1991-1999)periods were larger than 0.55,indicating agood precision of SCADS.Besides,in terms of the prediction of climate change in the future of Kaidu River basin,it was shown an upwards of monthly average temperature,and a larger amount of evaporation,precipitation,sunshine-hour,and relative-humidity in three different periods(2011-2040,2041-2070 and 2071-2100).
A statistical downscaling model that based on the stepwise-cluster analysis(SCADS),was employed to establish a statistical downscaling relationship between the large-scale climate variables from the multi-ensemble GCM,and the regional climate variables of the Kaidu River basin,as well as to calculate the prediction of climate change in the future.The results indicated that the outputs of SCADS could model the climate variables of Kaidu River basin with a satisfactory.The NSE for all climate variables in the calibration(1961-1990)and validation(1991-1999)periods were larger than 0.55,indicating agood precision of SCADS.Besides,in terms of the prediction of climate change in the future of Kaidu River basin,it was shown an upwards of monthly average temperature,and a larger amount of evaporation,precipitation,sunshine-hour,and relative-humidity in three different periods(2011-2040,2041-2070 and 2071-2100).
引文
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[3]易卿,程彦培,张健康,等.气候变化对黑龙江-阿穆尔河流域的生态环境影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(5):90-103.(YI Qing,CHENG Yan-pei,ZHANG Jian-kang,et al.Impact of climatic change on ecological environment of Heilongjiang-Amur River Basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(5):90-103.(in Chinese))
[4]Fiseha B M,Melesse A M,Romano E,et al.Statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature for the Upper Tiber Basin in Central Italy[J].International Journal of Water Sciences,2012,1(3):1-14.
[5]Mearns L O,Bogardi I,Giorgi F,et al.Comparison of climate change scenarios generated from regional climate model experiments and statistical downscaling[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,1999,104:6603-6621.
[6]Houghton J T,Ding Y,Griggs D J,et al.Climate change2001,the scientific basic,contribution of working group I to the third assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
[7]Cohen S J.Bringing the global warming issue close to home:the challenge of regional impact studies[J].Bulletin American Meteorological Society,1990,71:520-526.
[8]VonStorch H,Zorita E,Cubasch U.Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales:an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime[J].Journal of Climate,1993,6(6):1161-1171.
[9]Zhang H,Huang G H.Development of climate change projections for small watersheds using multi-model ensemble simulation and stochastic weather generation[J].Climate Dynamic,2013,40:805-821.
[10]杨青,崔彩霞.气候变化对巴音布鲁克高寒湿地地表水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2006,27(3):397-404.(YANG Qing,CUI Caixia.Impact of climate change on the surface water in Bayanbuluk Alpine-Cold wetland in the Tianshan Mountainous[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,27(3):397-404.(in Chinese))
[11]徐海量,叶茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探[J].地理科学,2007,2:219-224.(XU Hai-liang,YE Mao,SONG Yu-dong.Relationship between climate changes and annual runoff of head streams of Tarim River[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2007,2:219-224.(in Chinese))
[12]张玉江.塔里木河源流区径流量年内变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(5):124-128.(ZHANG Yu-jiang.Intra-annual variation analysis of runoff in the headstream area of Tarim River basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2014,12(5):124-128.(in Chinese))
[13]孙美平,姚晓军,李忠勤,等.21世纪天山南坡台兰河流域径流变化情景预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(5):342-349.(SUN Mei-ping,YAO Xiao-jun,LI Zhong-qin,et al.Estimation of Tailan river discharge in the Tianshan Mountains in the 21st century[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2012,8(5):342-349.(in Chinese))
[14]Wang X Q,Huang G H,Lin Q G,et al.A stepwise cluster analysis approach for downscaled climate projection-a Canadian case study[J].Environmental Modelling and Software,2013,49:141-151.
[15]Qin X S,Huang G H,Chakm A.A Stepwise-inference-based optimization system for supporting remediation of petroleumcontaminated sites[J].Water,Air,and Soil Pollution,2007,185:349-368.
[16]Wei S,Huang G H,Zeng G M.et al.A stepwise-cluster microbial biomass inference model in food waste composting[J].Waste Management,2009,29;2956-2968.
[17]Chen Y N,Yang Q,Luo Y,et al.Ponder on the issue of water resources in the arid region of northwest China[J].Arid Land Geography,2012,35(1):1-9.
[18]Dou Y,Chen X,Bao A M,et al.The simulation of snowmelt runoff in the ungauged Kaidu river basin of TianShan Mountains,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2011,62:1039-1045.
[19]Ling H B,Xu H L,Fu J Y.Temporal and spatial variation in regional climate and its impact on runoff in Xinjiang,China[J].Water Resources Management,2013,27:381-399.
[20]Shangguan D H,Liu S Y,Ding Y J,et al.Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin,northwest China[J].Progress in Natural Science,2009,19:727-732.