近60a新疆开都河径流变化特征分析
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摘要
根据新疆开都河大山口水文站1956—2012年逐月径流量资料,采用非参数检验、R/S法及最大熵谱法分析了年径流量变化特征。结果表明:开都河年径流量在1997年发生突变,并达到极显著水平,这与M—K法的计算结果一致;年尺度下的径流量变化通过了显著性检验,Z值为正,表明近60 a来径流量呈增长趋势,倾向率为0.118 2亿m~3/a;径流量赫斯特指数为0.877 4,表明未来径流量仍呈增加趋势;年径流量变化以28 a为第一主周期,9 a为第二主周期,16 a为第三主周期。
Based on the Dashankou Hydrometric Station monthly runoff data from 1956 to 2012,this paper used non parametric test,R/S method and the maximum entropy spectral method to analyze the variation characteristics of annual runoff in Kaidu River.The results show that the annual runoff in Kaidu River mutations occurrs in 1997 and reaches the extremely significant level.The calculation results are consistent with the M-K method;annual runoff passes significant test and Z value is positive,showing a rising trend in the recent 60 a.The dip ratio is 0.1182×10~8 m~3 /a;Hearst index is 0.8774,that means annual runoff changes still keep increasing trend in the future;28 a as the first main period,9 a as the second main period and 16 a as the third main period.The results provide an important reference for reasonable development and utilization of regional water resources.
Based on the Dashankou Hydrometric Station monthly runoff data from 1956 to 2012,this paper used non parametric test,R/S method and the maximum entropy spectral method to analyze the variation characteristics of annual runoff in Kaidu River.The results show that the annual runoff in Kaidu River mutations occurrs in 1997 and reaches the extremely significant level.The calculation results are consistent with the M-K method;annual runoff passes significant test and Z value is positive,showing a rising trend in the recent 60 a.The dip ratio is 0.1182×10~8 m~3 /a;Hearst index is 0.8774,that means annual runoff changes still keep increasing trend in the future;28 a as the first main period,9 a as the second main period and 16 a as the third main period.The results provide an important reference for reasonable development and utilization of regional water resources.
引文
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[2]曹小虎.运城市过去50 a和未来气候变化趋势研究[J].人民黄河,2014,36(11):13-15.
[3]杨志峰,李春晖.黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征[J].山地学报,2004,22(2):140-146.
[4]赵锐锋,陈亚宁,李卫红.1957年至2005年塔里木河干流径流变化趋势分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(6):1196-1203.
[5]MENZEL L,BURGER G.Climate Change Scenarios and Runoff Response in the Mulde Catchment[J]Journal of Hydrology,2002,267(1-2):53-64.
[6]NASH L L.Sensitivity of Stream Flow in the Colorado Basin to Climate Change[J].Hydrology,1990,125(1):221-241.
[7]徐海量,叶茂,宋郁东.塔里木河源流区气候变化和年径流量关系初探[J].地理科学,2007,27(2):219-224.
[8]徐长春,陈亚宁,李卫红.45 a来塔里木河流域气温、降水变化及其对积雪面积的影响[J].冰川冻土,2007,29(2):183-190.
[9]江田汉,邓莲堂.Hurat指数估计中存在的若干问题——以在气候变化研究中的应用为例[J].地理科学,2004,24(2):177-182.
[10]门宝辉,刘昌明,夏军.R/S分析法在南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流趋势预测中的应用[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(4):568-573.
[11]凌红波,徐海量,张青青.新疆玛纳斯河年径流时序特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1639-1646.
[12]MANN H B.Nonparametric Tests Against Trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[13]KENDALL M G.Rank Correlation Measures[M].2nd Edition.London:Charles Griffin,1975:77-80.
[14]魏光辉,邓丽娟.基于MK与SR非参数检验方法的干旱区降水趋势分析[J].西北水电,2014(4):6-9.
[15]孔兰,谢江松,陈晓宏.珠江口最高洪潮水位变化规律研究[J].水资源研究,2012,33(1):315-319.
[16]赵丽娜,宋松柏,谢萍萍.陕北年径流序列谱分析研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2009,20(6):16-25.
[17]涂方旭,胡圣立.用最大熵谱方法分析气候序列周期[J].广西科学,1994,1(3):58-61.