基于船舶碰撞频率测算的青屿航段航标效能评估
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摘要
为了研究厦门港主航道青屿航段航标配布优化对通航安全的影响,以近2年AIS数据为基础,采用IWRAP (IALA waterway risk assessment program) MK II软件,定量评估青屿航段船舶碰撞风险。评估结果显示,航标优化后的目标航段2016年追越和对遇船舶碰撞频率分别为0. 1033起/年和0. 2417起/年,比2015年的0. 1221起/年和0. 3384起/年分别下降了15. 4%和28. 6%。研究表明,IWRAP MK II软件不但可用于评估航道通航风险,还可以评估优化后的航标效能,为航标效能评估提供一种新方法。
In order to better study the influence on ship safety from the optimization of navigation aids distribution in Qingyu channel of Xiamen Port,the IWRAP MK II software is used to evaluate the risk of ship collision by using AIS data. According to the results of the assessment, after the optimization the collision frequencies of overtaking and head-on situations in 2016 are 0. 1033 per year and 0. 2417 per year respectively,which are 15. 4% and 28. 6% lower than the 0. 1221 per year and 0. 3384 per year of 2015. The results show that the IWRAP MK II software can be used not only to evaluate the navigation risk but also to evaluate the efficiency of optimized navigation aids, which provides a new method for the evaluation of the latter.
In order to better study the influence on ship safety from the optimization of navigation aids distribution in Qingyu channel of Xiamen Port,the IWRAP MK II software is used to evaluate the risk of ship collision by using AIS data. According to the results of the assessment, after the optimization the collision frequencies of overtaking and head-on situations in 2016 are 0. 1033 per year and 0. 2417 per year respectively,which are 15. 4% and 28. 6% lower than the 0. 1221 per year and 0. 3384 per year of 2015. The results show that the IWRAP MK II software can be used not only to evaluate the navigation risk but also to evaluate the efficiency of optimized navigation aids, which provides a new method for the evaluation of the latter.
引文
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[6]柴田,熊德琪,张杏谷,等.开阔水域船舶碰撞频率建模及应用[J].仪器仪表学报,2017,38(9):2335-2342.
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[9]杨晓东,蒋卫东.上海港及附近水域船舶碰撞事故分析及对策[J].中国航海,2008,31(2):148-151.
[10]吴春杰,胡甚平,陈锦标.吴淞口水域船舶交通风险的模拟分析与评估[J].中国航海,2009,32(2):62-67.
[11]孙超,夏大荣,张锦鹏,等.外高桥水域通航环境风险评价[J].中国航海,2012,35(2):68-71.
[12]陈智辉,熊振南.海上石油开采平台对通航安全影响的综合评判[J].中国航海,2013,36(4):45-47.
[13]张金奋,严新平,陈先桥,等.基于概率分布的长江干线水上交通事故分析[J].中国航海,2012,35(3):81-84.
[2] FUYII Y,MIZUKI N. Design of VTS systems for water with bridges[C]//proceedings of the International Symposium on Advances in Ship Collision Analysis. Copehagen,Denmark:[s. n.],1998:177-190.
[3] JAKUB MONTEWKA,FLORIS GOERLANDT,PENTTI KUJALA. Determination of collision criteria and causation factors appropriate to a model for estimating the probability of maritime accidents[J]. Ocean Engineering,2012,40(1):50-61.
[4]杜磊,文元桥,肖长诗,等.自由航行海域船舶碰撞概率计算[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(1):53-59.
[5]黄纯,陈国伟,柴田. IWRAP MKⅡ软件在长江口水域船舶碰撞和搁浅风险评估中的应用[J].中国航海,2017,40(1):79-82.
[6]柴田,熊德琪,张杏谷,等.开阔水域船舶碰撞频率建模及应用[J].仪器仪表学报,2017,38(9):2335-2342.
[7] JAKUB MONTEWKA,HINZ T,KUJALA P,et al. Probability modeling of vessel collisions[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(5):573-589
[8] TIAN CHAI,JINXIAN WENG,DEQI XIONG. Development of a quantitative risk assessment model for ship collisions in fairways[J]. Safety Science,2017(91):71-83.
[9]杨晓东,蒋卫东.上海港及附近水域船舶碰撞事故分析及对策[J].中国航海,2008,31(2):148-151.
[10]吴春杰,胡甚平,陈锦标.吴淞口水域船舶交通风险的模拟分析与评估[J].中国航海,2009,32(2):62-67.
[11]孙超,夏大荣,张锦鹏,等.外高桥水域通航环境风险评价[J].中国航海,2012,35(2):68-71.
[12]陈智辉,熊振南.海上石油开采平台对通航安全影响的综合评判[J].中国航海,2013,36(4):45-47.
[13]张金奋,严新平,陈先桥,等.基于概率分布的长江干线水上交通事故分析[J].中国航海,2012,35(3):81-84.