城市人地规模结构演变及异速生长关系比较研究——基于长三角26个城市的实证分析
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摘要
城市群是引领区域经济发展的重要引擎。基于分形理论的位序规模法则和异速生长模型,对长三角地区城市人口演化规律及异速增长速度进行实证研究。结果表明,长三角地区城市体系齐夫维数接近1,城市体系较为健全,各规模等级城市数量比例较为合理。同时,长三角地区城市群异速生长系数与城市规模呈现明确反向变化关系。超大城市、特大城市、大城市、中等城市、小城市异速生长系数分别为0.41、0.98、3.59、8.19和16.7,即城市越大,越应该向高层发展,异速生长系数b值应该越小。应根据异速生长系数合理控制建设规模和土地供应,加强资源合理利用和环境保护,科学引导人口集聚,不断优化投资环境,形成特色支柱产业,全方位提升城市群经济发展水平。
Urban agglomeration is an important engine leading the development of regional economy. Based on the rank-size rule and allometric growth model of the fractal theory, this paper conducts an empirical study of the urban population evolution rule and the allometric growth rate in the Yangtze River Delta region. The results show that the Ziff dimension of the urban system in the Yangtze River Delta region is close to 1, which suggests that the urban system is relatively sound,and the proportion of cities of different scales is reasonable. At the same time, the allometric growth coefficient of the city group in Yangtze River Delta has a clear reverse changing relationship with the city scale. The allometric growth coefficients of super mega-cities, mega-cities, big cities, medium-sized cities and small cities are 0.41, 0.98, 3.59, 8.19 and 16.7, respectively. That is to say, the larger the city is, the more higher-rise it should be, and the smaller the allometric growth coefficient should be. Therefore, it is necessary, according to the allometric growth coefficient, to control the construction scale and land supply reasonably, to strengthen the rational utilization of resources and environmental protection, to guide the population aggregation scientifically, to optimize the investment environment constantly, to form the characteristic pillar industries, and to promote the economic development level of urban agglomerations in an all-round way.
Urban agglomeration is an important engine leading the development of regional economy. Based on the rank-size rule and allometric growth model of the fractal theory, this paper conducts an empirical study of the urban population evolution rule and the allometric growth rate in the Yangtze River Delta region. The results show that the Ziff dimension of the urban system in the Yangtze River Delta region is close to 1, which suggests that the urban system is relatively sound,and the proportion of cities of different scales is reasonable. At the same time, the allometric growth coefficient of the city group in Yangtze River Delta has a clear reverse changing relationship with the city scale. The allometric growth coefficients of super mega-cities, mega-cities, big cities, medium-sized cities and small cities are 0.41, 0.98, 3.59, 8.19 and 16.7, respectively. That is to say, the larger the city is, the more higher-rise it should be, and the smaller the allometric growth coefficient should be. Therefore, it is necessary, according to the allometric growth coefficient, to control the construction scale and land supply reasonably, to strengthen the rational utilization of resources and environmental protection, to guide the population aggregation scientifically, to optimize the investment environment constantly, to form the characteristic pillar industries, and to promote the economic development level of urban agglomerations in an all-round way.
引文
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[23]吕军书,李茂.农业比较利润视角下我国农地规模化经营的实现路径[J].河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,(4):78-82.
[2]Mandelbrot B.. The Fractal Geometry of Nature[M]. San Francisco:Freeman, 1982.
[3]Batty M., Longley P.. A Geometry of Form and Function[J]. Academic Press, 1994,(6):1447-1472.
[4]Schiffman Irving. Review of Growth Management:The Planning Challenge of the 1990s[J]. Journal of American Planning Association,1993,(4):50-61.
[5]Russ Lopes,Patricia Hynes. Sprawl in the 1990s:Measurement,Distribution,and Trends[J]. Urban Affairs Review,2003,(3):325-355.
[6]Charles Hughes, Richard Spray. Smart Communities and Smart Growth:Maximizing Benefits for the Corporation[J].Journal of Corporate Real Estate,2002,(3):207-214.
[7]Faisal A. Mubarak. Urban Growth Boundary Policy and Residential Suburbanization:Riyadh Saudi Arabia[J]. Habitat International,2004,(28):125-129.
[8]陈彦光. Beckmann城市体系异速生长模型的理论基础与实证分析[J].科技通报,2002,(5):360-367.
[9]刘继生,陈彦光.山东省城市人口—城区面积的异速生长特征探讨[J].地理科学,2005,(2):135-141.
[10]李郁,陈刚强.中国城市异速增长分析[J].地理学报,2009,(4):399-407.
[11]赵岑,冯长春.我国城市化进程中城市人口与城市用地相互关系研究[J].城市问题研究,2010,(10):113-118.
[12]董立峰,王林林.近20年来山东省城市异速生长分析[J].城市问题,2012,(8):50-51.
[13]鲁俊锋,李豫新.新疆城市经济发展中人口与用地关系研究——基于异速生长模型的分析[J].地域研究与开发,2013,(6):121-125.
[14]郑银龙,南灵.陕西省城市人口与城市用地异速生长关系研究[J].信阳师范学院学报,2013,(3):370-373.
[15]吴金华,吴国栋.基于城市人口—城区面积异速生长关系西安市城市化水平测算模型研究[J].国土资源科技管理,2008,(1):92-95.
[16]王悦,王梓蕴.城市空间结构与城市经济绩效的耦合度研究[J].济南大学学报(社会科学版),2016,(6):93-101.
[17]段炳德.中国城镇化进程与产业间就业结构变迁:基本事实与总体判断[J].理论学刊,2018,(2):61-68.
[18]舒晓虎.地域、关系、结构:我国城市社区类型动态演化及其趋势[J].求实,2017,(6):41-53.
[19]杨吾扬,梁进社.高等经济地理学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1997:155-159.
[20]陈彦光.分形城市系统:标度·对称·空间复杂性[M].北京:科学出版社,2008:16-20.
[21]杨艳昭.中国城市土地扩张与人口增长协调性研究[J].地理研究,2013,(9):1668-1678.
[22]周艳,黄贤金,徐国良.长三角城市土地扩张与人口增长耦合态势及其驱动机制[J].地理研究,2016,(2):313-324.
[23]吕军书,李茂.农业比较利润视角下我国农地规模化经营的实现路径[J].河南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,(4):78-82.