摘要
城市群是引领区域经济发展的重要引擎。基于分形理论的位序规模法则和异速生长模型,对长三角地区城市人口演化规律及异速增长速度进行实证研究。结果表明,长三角地区城市体系齐夫维数接近1,城市体系较为健全,各规模等级城市数量比例较为合理。同时,长三角地区城市群异速生长系数与城市规模呈现明确反向变化关系。超大城市、特大城市、大城市、中等城市、小城市异速生长系数分别为0.41、0.98、3.59、8.19和16.7,即城市越大,越应该向高层发展,异速生长系数b值应该越小。应根据异速生长系数合理控制建设规模和土地供应,加强资源合理利用和环境保护,科学引导人口集聚,不断优化投资环境,形成特色支柱产业,全方位提升城市群经济发展水平。
Urban agglomeration is an important engine leading the development of regional economy. Based on the rank-size rule and allometric growth model of the fractal theory, this paper conducts an empirical study of the urban population evolution rule and the allometric growth rate in the Yangtze River Delta region. The results show that the Ziff dimension of the urban system in the Yangtze River Delta region is close to 1, which suggests that the urban system is relatively sound,and the proportion of cities of different scales is reasonable. At the same time, the allometric growth coefficient of the city group in Yangtze River Delta has a clear reverse changing relationship with the city scale. The allometric growth coefficients of super mega-cities, mega-cities, big cities, medium-sized cities and small cities are 0.41, 0.98, 3.59, 8.19 and 16.7, respectively. That is to say, the larger the city is, the more higher-rise it should be, and the smaller the allometric growth coefficient should be. Therefore, it is necessary, according to the allometric growth coefficient, to control the construction scale and land supply reasonably, to strengthen the rational utilization of resources and environmental protection, to guide the population aggregation scientifically, to optimize the investment environment constantly, to form the characteristic pillar industries, and to promote the economic development level of urban agglomerations in an all-round way.
引文
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