房价对家庭生育决策的影响
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摘要
文章基于2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据研究了房价对家庭生育决策的影响,选用已婚夫妇结婚当年和结婚5年后的房价分别作为生育一孩和生育二孩的影响因素,并通过比较一套房和多套房的相关结论讨论了房价影响家庭生育决策的渠道。本研究发现:(1)房价对生育孩子的概率有显著负影响,房价每上涨1000元,生育一孩的概率将降低1.8%～2.9%,生育二孩的概率将降低2.4%～8.8%;(2)房价推迟了女性的初次生育年龄,房价每上涨1000元,初次生育年龄将提高0.14～0.26年;(3)房价上涨对生育决策的影响理论上存在挤出效应和财富效应两种机制,但现实中挤出效应的影响更大。文章的结论意味着,我国生育率下降与房价上涨有一定关系,政府应抑制房价非理性上涨。
This paper examines the effect of housing price on family fertility decision based on the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies. We chose housing prices at the time of marriage and the time of five years after marriage as the variables influencing the decisions to have the first child and the second child respectively. We also discuss the mechanisms through which housing price affects fertility decisions by comparing families only having one house and those having two and more houses. Three main results are found in this paper. First, housing price has a significant negative effect on the probability of having children. The probability of having the first and the second child would decrease by 1.8% to 2.9% and 2.4% to 8.8% if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Second, housing price postpones the age of females to have the first child. The age at first birth would increase by 0.14 to 0.26 years if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Third, there are two theoretical mechanisms explaining the effect of housing price on fertility decision, namely wealth mechanism and crowding mechanism. In reality, the degree of influence from the crowding mechanism is much bigger than that of the wealth mechanism. The results of this paper imply that decline of fertility rate in recent years is related to the rapid increase of housing price and government need to restrain the irrational increase of housing price.
This paper examines the effect of housing price on family fertility decision based on the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies. We chose housing prices at the time of marriage and the time of five years after marriage as the variables influencing the decisions to have the first child and the second child respectively. We also discuss the mechanisms through which housing price affects fertility decisions by comparing families only having one house and those having two and more houses. Three main results are found in this paper. First, housing price has a significant negative effect on the probability of having children. The probability of having the first and the second child would decrease by 1.8% to 2.9% and 2.4% to 8.8% if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Second, housing price postpones the age of females to have the first child. The age at first birth would increase by 0.14 to 0.26 years if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Third, there are two theoretical mechanisms explaining the effect of housing price on fertility decision, namely wealth mechanism and crowding mechanism. In reality, the degree of influence from the crowding mechanism is much bigger than that of the wealth mechanism. The results of this paper imply that decline of fertility rate in recent years is related to the rapid increase of housing price and government need to restrain the irrational increase of housing price.
引文
1 Adsera A. 2005. Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries. American Economic Review 2: 189-193.
2 Aksoy C. G. 2016. Short-Term Effects of House Prices on Birth Rates. EBRD Working Paper.
3 Butz W. P. and M. P .Ward. 1979. The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility. American Economic Review 3: 318-328.
4 Dettling L. J and M. S. Kearney. 2014. House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. Journal of Public Economics 1:82-100.
5 Li H., J. Yi and J. Zhang. 2011. Estimating the Effect of the One-child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-differences. Demography 4: 1535-1557.
6 Lovenheim M. F. and K. J. Mumford. 2013. Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market Boom and Bust. Social Science Electronic Publishing 2: 464-475.
7 Monstad K., C. Propper, and K. G. Salvanes. 2008. Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 4: 827-852.
8 Sprague A. 1988. Post-War Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation Rates. Economic Journal 392: 682-700.
9 Zhang J. 1994. Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in Hebei Province, China: An Application of the Sequential Logit Model. Economic Development and Cultural Change 1: 67-90.
10 陈斌开,金箫,欧阳涤非. 住房价格、资源错配与中国工业企业生产率. 世界经济, 2015; 4:77-98Chen Binkai, Jin Xiao and Ouyang Difei. 2015. Housing Price, Resources Misallocation, and TFP of Manufacturing Firms in China. World Economy 4:77-98.
11 陈斌开,杨汝岱. 土地供给、住房价格与中国城镇居民储蓄. 经济研究, 2013; 1:110-122Chen Binkai and Yang Rudai. 2013. Land Supply, Housing Price, and Household Saving in Urban China: Evidence from Urban Household Survey. Economic Research Journal 1:110-122.
12 陈卫.“发展—计划生育—生育率’的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察”. 人口研究, 2005; 1:2-10Chen Wei. 2005. The Development-Family Planning-Fertility Relationship in China: A Reexamination Using Provincial Level Data. Population Research 1:2-10.
13 戈艳霞. 中国的城镇化如何影响生育率?—基于空间面板数据模型的研究. 人口学刊. 2015; 3:88-101Ge Yanxia. 2015. How Urbanization Affects Fertility Rate in China? —Research Based on Spatial Panel Data Model. Population Journal 3:88-101.
14 李德山,张淑英,佘赛男. 四川省生育率转变与计划生育政策的人口自效应评估. 西北人口. 2015; 2:95-100Li Deshan, Zhang Shuying and She Sainan. 2015. Demographic-Effect Evaluation of Population Fertility Transition and Family Planning Policy in Sichuan Province. Northwest Population 2:95-100.
15 李涛,陈斌开. 家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据. 经济研究. 2014; 3:62-75Li Tao and Chen Binkai. 2014. Real Assets, Wealth Effect, and Household Consumption: Analysis Based on China Household Survey Data. Economic Research Journal 3:62-75.
16 李勇刚,李祥,高波. 房价上涨对居民生育行为的影响研究. 湖南师范大学社会科学学报. 2012; 6:99-103Li Yonggang, Li Xiang and Gao Bo. 2012. The Effect of Housing Price on the Residents’ Fertility Behavior. Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University 6:99-103.
17 刘晓婷,张敬石,胡雍. 房价上涨对人口出生率的影响——基于中国1999—2013年数据的实证研究. 重庆理工大学学报(社会科学).2016; 1:53-61Liu Xiaoting, Zhang Jingshi and Hu Yong. 2016. Influence of High Housing Price on Fertility Rate: Evidence from Chinese Cities, 1999-2003. Journal of Chongqing University of Technology (Social Science) 1:53-61.
18 宋德勇,刘章生,弓媛媛. 房价上涨对城镇居民二孩生育意愿的影响. 城市问题. 2017; 3:67-72Song Deyong, Liu Zhangsheng and Gong Yuanyuan. 2017. The Effect of Rising Housing Price on the Willingness of Having the Second Child in Urban China. Urban Problems 3: 67-72.
19 易君健,易行健. 房价上涨与生育率的长期下降:基于香港的实证研究. 经济学(季刊).2008;3:961-982Yi Junjian and Yi Xingjian. 2008. Increasing Housing Price and Secular Fertility Decline in Hong Kong. China Economic Quarterly 3:961-982.
(1)数据来自《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
(2)房价和生育率的负相关不仅在中国成立,在很多发达国家也是如此。最近,美国最大的房产平台Zillow发布的研究报告也指出,房价和生育率之间存在着极强的负相关关系。以全美国25～29岁妇女为样本,房价平均每上升10%,生育率就下降1.5%。在洛杉矶、西雅图、纽约这样的大城市,高房价对生育率的影响表现得更加明显。
(3)目前CFPS已公布2010、2012、2014和2016年数据。但由于2016年数据尚未开放家庭关系数据库,本文选用了2014年的数据进行研究。但是,由于2014年“全面两孩”政策尚未实施,生育行为受到政策压制,本研究很可能低估房价对生育行为的影响。
(4)夫妇结婚后可能会迁移到房价低的城市,生育决策时的房价可能不是结婚所在地的房价。但在我们研究的样本中,这类家庭数量极少。如果有样本特别大的数据库,我们可进一步研究这种现象对本文结论的影响。
(5)不同省份对“生育间隔”的规定也有所不同,例如,2015年以前,北京市生育二胎需满足“生育间隔4年或女方不低于28周岁”的限制。
(6)这里汇报Logit模型的主要原因,是看主要变量系数的显著性是否稳健。由于汇报的只是系数,不是边际效应,回归结果的绝对值不能直接与LPM的结果进行比较,读者可只关注各变量的显著性。
(7)在2014年CFPS数据中,拥有二套以上住房的家庭约占全部家庭的18%。
2 Aksoy C. G. 2016. Short-Term Effects of House Prices on Birth Rates. EBRD Working Paper.
3 Butz W. P. and M. P .Ward. 1979. The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility. American Economic Review 3: 318-328.
4 Dettling L. J and M. S. Kearney. 2014. House Prices and Birth Rates: The Impact of the Real Estate Market on the Decision to Have a Baby. Journal of Public Economics 1:82-100.
5 Li H., J. Yi and J. Zhang. 2011. Estimating the Effect of the One-child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-differences. Demography 4: 1535-1557.
6 Lovenheim M. F. and K. J. Mumford. 2013. Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market Boom and Bust. Social Science Electronic Publishing 2: 464-475.
7 Monstad K., C. Propper, and K. G. Salvanes. 2008. Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics 4: 827-852.
8 Sprague A. 1988. Post-War Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation Rates. Economic Journal 392: 682-700.
9 Zhang J. 1994. Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in Hebei Province, China: An Application of the Sequential Logit Model. Economic Development and Cultural Change 1: 67-90.
10 陈斌开,金箫,欧阳涤非. 住房价格、资源错配与中国工业企业生产率. 世界经济, 2015; 4:77-98Chen Binkai, Jin Xiao and Ouyang Difei. 2015. Housing Price, Resources Misallocation, and TFP of Manufacturing Firms in China. World Economy 4:77-98.
11 陈斌开,杨汝岱. 土地供给、住房价格与中国城镇居民储蓄. 经济研究, 2013; 1:110-122Chen Binkai and Yang Rudai. 2013. Land Supply, Housing Price, and Household Saving in Urban China: Evidence from Urban Household Survey. Economic Research Journal 1:110-122.
12 陈卫.“发展—计划生育—生育率’的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察”. 人口研究, 2005; 1:2-10Chen Wei. 2005. The Development-Family Planning-Fertility Relationship in China: A Reexamination Using Provincial Level Data. Population Research 1:2-10.
13 戈艳霞. 中国的城镇化如何影响生育率?—基于空间面板数据模型的研究. 人口学刊. 2015; 3:88-101Ge Yanxia. 2015. How Urbanization Affects Fertility Rate in China? —Research Based on Spatial Panel Data Model. Population Journal 3:88-101.
14 李德山,张淑英,佘赛男. 四川省生育率转变与计划生育政策的人口自效应评估. 西北人口. 2015; 2:95-100Li Deshan, Zhang Shuying and She Sainan. 2015. Demographic-Effect Evaluation of Population Fertility Transition and Family Planning Policy in Sichuan Province. Northwest Population 2:95-100.
15 李涛,陈斌开. 家庭固定资产、财富效应与居民消费:来自中国城镇家庭的经验证据. 经济研究. 2014; 3:62-75Li Tao and Chen Binkai. 2014. Real Assets, Wealth Effect, and Household Consumption: Analysis Based on China Household Survey Data. Economic Research Journal 3:62-75.
16 李勇刚,李祥,高波. 房价上涨对居民生育行为的影响研究. 湖南师范大学社会科学学报. 2012; 6:99-103Li Yonggang, Li Xiang and Gao Bo. 2012. The Effect of Housing Price on the Residents’ Fertility Behavior. Journal of Social Science of Hunan Normal University 6:99-103.
17 刘晓婷,张敬石,胡雍. 房价上涨对人口出生率的影响——基于中国1999—2013年数据的实证研究. 重庆理工大学学报(社会科学).2016; 1:53-61Liu Xiaoting, Zhang Jingshi and Hu Yong. 2016. Influence of High Housing Price on Fertility Rate: Evidence from Chinese Cities, 1999-2003. Journal of Chongqing University of Technology (Social Science) 1:53-61.
18 宋德勇,刘章生,弓媛媛. 房价上涨对城镇居民二孩生育意愿的影响. 城市问题. 2017; 3:67-72Song Deyong, Liu Zhangsheng and Gong Yuanyuan. 2017. The Effect of Rising Housing Price on the Willingness of Having the Second Child in Urban China. Urban Problems 3: 67-72.
19 易君健,易行健. 房价上涨与生育率的长期下降:基于香港的实证研究. 经济学(季刊).2008;3:961-982Yi Junjian and Yi Xingjian. 2008. Increasing Housing Price and Secular Fertility Decline in Hong Kong. China Economic Quarterly 3:961-982.
(1)数据来自《中华人民共和国2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。
(2)房价和生育率的负相关不仅在中国成立,在很多发达国家也是如此。最近,美国最大的房产平台Zillow发布的研究报告也指出,房价和生育率之间存在着极强的负相关关系。以全美国25～29岁妇女为样本,房价平均每上升10%,生育率就下降1.5%。在洛杉矶、西雅图、纽约这样的大城市,高房价对生育率的影响表现得更加明显。
(3)目前CFPS已公布2010、2012、2014和2016年数据。但由于2016年数据尚未开放家庭关系数据库,本文选用了2014年的数据进行研究。但是,由于2014年“全面两孩”政策尚未实施,生育行为受到政策压制,本研究很可能低估房价对生育行为的影响。
(4)夫妇结婚后可能会迁移到房价低的城市,生育决策时的房价可能不是结婚所在地的房价。但在我们研究的样本中,这类家庭数量极少。如果有样本特别大的数据库,我们可进一步研究这种现象对本文结论的影响。
(5)不同省份对“生育间隔”的规定也有所不同,例如,2015年以前,北京市生育二胎需满足“生育间隔4年或女方不低于28周岁”的限制。
(6)这里汇报Logit模型的主要原因,是看主要变量系数的显著性是否稳健。由于汇报的只是系数,不是边际效应,回归结果的绝对值不能直接与LPM的结果进行比较,读者可只关注各变量的显著性。
(7)在2014年CFPS数据中,拥有二套以上住房的家庭约占全部家庭的18%。