基于云模型可能性测度的引水灌溉工程调度风险评估
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摘要
输水调度是引水灌溉工程最为核心和关键业务,为确保工程安全平稳运行,对调度风险进行深入研究和系统分析是十分必要的。总结分析影响引水工程调度安全众多因素,将调度风险归纳为调度制度风险、调度人员风险、调度技术风险、调度协调风险4方面,细化各类风险因子,建立了调度风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,提出了基于云模型可能性测度风险评估方法,利用正态分布云模型量化风险因子的重要程度和效用值,通过模糊积分计算综合风险程度。实例表明,建立的引水灌溉工程调度风险评价指标体系和评估方法,能够较全面、合理反映调度运行安全影响因素,综合考虑了风险评估中的模糊性和随机性,操作性强,为风险评估研究提供了一种新思路。
There are many complex operating conditions and multiple sources of water dispatch risk in long distance water transfer project.To ensure the safety of water dispatch,it is significant to take risk evaluation for long distance water transfer project.This paper summarizes the main risks that water dispatch is facing based on the actual situation of water dispatch,including dispatch institution risk,dispatch personnel risk,dispatch technical risk and dispatch coordinate risk.Various types of risk source is in-depth analyzed and the new risk evaluation method is proposed based on cloud model and possibility measures theory.The new evaluation model can not only show the fuzzy feature of grade,but also indicate random attribute of the degree by hyper entropy.The model is applied into risk assessment of the water dispatching and the results show that the model has strong adaptability,flexibility and high fitting accuracy.
There are many complex operating conditions and multiple sources of water dispatch risk in long distance water transfer project.To ensure the safety of water dispatch,it is significant to take risk evaluation for long distance water transfer project.This paper summarizes the main risks that water dispatch is facing based on the actual situation of water dispatch,including dispatch institution risk,dispatch personnel risk,dispatch technical risk and dispatch coordinate risk.Various types of risk source is in-depth analyzed and the new risk evaluation method is proposed based on cloud model and possibility measures theory.The new evaluation model can not only show the fuzzy feature of grade,but also indicate random attribute of the degree by hyper entropy.The model is applied into risk assessment of the water dispatching and the results show that the model has strong adaptability,flexibility and high fitting accuracy.
引文
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[2]曹玉升,畅建霞,黄强,等.南水北调中线输水调度实时控制策略[J].水科学进展,2017,28(1):133-139.
[3]宋雅静.长距离引水工程风险的过程管理风险研究[D].郑州:华北水利水电大学,2013:8-12.
[4]黄崇福.自然灾害风险分析与管理[M].北京:科学出版社,2012:105-109.
[5]陈赟,卢有杰.工程风险管理[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2008:8-12.
[6]冯平,王仲珏,刘增明.长距离输水工程综合水毁风险的估算方法以及应用[J].水利学报,2007,38(11):1 388-1 392.
[7]冯平,王仲珏,田为民.基于二维Gumbel分布的长距离输水系统水文风险评估[J].灾害学,2008,23(1):23-25.
[8]王仲珏,冯平,王现领.南水北调中线工程渡槽的综合防洪风险分析[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):1-4.
[9]穆杰.长距离输水工程突发水污染事件风险评价与预警预案研究[D].天津:天津大学,2015:10-15.
[10]李丹,姚文锋,郭富庆,等.基于模糊相似的长距离输水管线系统风险评价指标体系确立[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015,13(4):803-807.
[11]李德毅,杜鹢.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2001:201-209.
[12]陈晓楠,段春青,邱林,等.云推理模型在灌区中长期灌溉制度制定中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2008,28(11):115-121.
[13]贾琦,段春青,陈晓楠.黄河流域水资源可再生能力评价的云模型[J].中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(9):48-52.
[14]石晓静,查小春,刘嘉慧.基于云模型的汉江上游安康市洪水灾害风险评价[J].水利水电科学进展,2017,37(3):29-34.
[15]杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].广州:华南理工大学出版社,2006:198-211.
[16]金菊良,魏一鸣,丁晶.基于改进层次分析法的模糊综合评判模型[J].水利学报,2004,35(3):65-69.