基于权重融合的灰色关联分析水资源配置方案评价研究
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摘要
针对水资源配置的多目标性、模糊性和不确定性特点,以及水资源配置方案评价中合理确定各评价指标权重的关键问题,将层次分析法和投影寻踪聚类法集成计算融合权重,进而建立基于权重融合的灰色关联分析水资源配置评价模型。将评价模型应用到新疆克孜河流域的水资源配置方案评价中,结果表明,融合后的权重能够修正主、客观评价结果中的不足之处,将专家意见和客观数据属性有效作用于方案决策评价中,评价结果更加合理可信。
In view of the multi-objective, fuzzy and uncertain characteristics of water resources allocation, and the key problem of determining the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation of water resources allocation scheme, the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the projection pursuit clustering method are integrated to calculate the fusion weight, and then the water resources allocation evaluation model based on weight fusion is established. The evaluation model is applied to the evaluation of the water resources allocation scheme in the Kiz River Basin in Xinjiang. The results show that the syncretic weight can correct the shortcomings of the subjective evaluation and objective evaluation results, and the expert opinion and objective data attribute can be effectively used in the evaluation of the scheme decision, and it can also make the evaluation result more reasonable and credible.
In view of the multi-objective, fuzzy and uncertain characteristics of water resources allocation, and the key problem of determining the weight of each evaluation index in the evaluation of water resources allocation scheme, the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the projection pursuit clustering method are integrated to calculate the fusion weight, and then the water resources allocation evaluation model based on weight fusion is established. The evaluation model is applied to the evaluation of the water resources allocation scheme in the Kiz River Basin in Xinjiang. The results show that the syncretic weight can correct the shortcomings of the subjective evaluation and objective evaluation results, and the expert opinion and objective data attribute can be effectively used in the evaluation of the scheme decision, and it can also make the evaluation result more reasonable and credible.
引文
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[2] 曹邱林,李贝.大中型泵站安全评价权重融合方法研究[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(7):105-107.
[3] 李绍红,王少阳,朱建东,等.基于权重融合和云模型的岩爆倾向性预测研究[J].岩土工程学报,2018,40(6):1 075-1 083.
[4] 何格,唐德善.基于改进物元可拓模型的水资源配置方案评价[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(12):24-26,138.
[5] 粟晓玲,康绍忠.石羊河流域多目标水资源配置模型及其应用[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(11):128-132.
[6] 钟平安,张金花,邴建平.基于FIM赋权的水资源配置方案模糊物元评价[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(4):31-34.
[7] 吴凤平,贾鹏,张丽娜.基于格序理论的水资源配置方案综合评价[J].资源科学,2013,35(11):2 232-2 238.
[8] 余建星,蒋旭光,练继建.水资源优化配置方案综合评价的模糊熵模型[J].水利学报,2009,40(6):729-735.
[9] 王佩.基于FAHP与熵权法水资源配置指标权重融合[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(1):20-22.
[10] 裴启涛,李海波,刘亚群,等.基于组合赋权的岩爆倾向性预测灰评估模型及应用[J].岩土力学,2014,35(S1):49-56.
[11] 匡乐红,徐林荣,刘宝琛.组合赋权法确定地质灾害危险性评价指标权重[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,(6):1 063-1 067,1 075.
[12] 王庆杰,岳春芳,李艺珍.基于MAGA-PPC模型的水资源配置方案综合评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2018,29(3):105-110.
[13] 万坤扬,胡其昌.基于层次分析法的杭州市水资源安全现状评价及趋势[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(1):21-25,222.
[14] Huang Hong, Lu Jun. Identification of river water pollution characteristics based on projection pursuit and factor analysis[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2014,72(9):3 409-3 417.
[15] Jun Zhao, Juliang Jin, Qizhong Guo, et al. Dynamic risk assessment model for flood disaster on a projection pursuit cluster and its application[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014,28(8):2 175 -2 183.
[16] 刘思峰,蔡华,杨英杰,等.灰色关联分析模型研究进展[J]. 系统工程理论与实践,2013,(8):2 041-2 046.
[17] 张胜江,岳春芳.喀什经济区水资源配置研究技术报告[R]. 乌鲁木齐:新疆水利水电科学研究院,新疆农业大学,2013.
[18] 楼文高,乔龙. 投影寻踪分类建模理论的新探索与实证研究[J]. 数理统计与管理,2015,(1):47-58.