基于正态云模型的黄河流域水资源承载力评价
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摘要
水资源是支撑区域经济社会发展的基本保障,科学合理地评价水资源承载能力对区域实现可持续发展具有重要意义。从"量、质、域、流"维度出发,筛选22个评价指标,构建水资源承载能力评价指标体系:针对评价指标量化、等级标准划分的不确定性问题,建立了基于正态云理论的水资源承载能力评价模型,并采用单因素轮换法(OAT)分析指标权重的敏感性。将构建的评价指标体系与模型应用于黄河流域2015年水资源承载力评价,结果表明:黄河全流域水资源承载能力等级特征值为2.70,处于第Ⅲ等级临界状态,其中,水量维度承载能力为第Ⅲ级临界状态,水质、水域、水流维度的承载能力均为第Ⅱ级超载状态,除甘肃、宁夏、陕西和河南四省区为Ⅱ级超载状态外,其他省区均为Ⅲ级临界状态。评价结果与SPA-VFS、TOPSIS法评价结果基本一致,表明基于"量、质、域、流"的评价指标体系及模型有效可行,研究以期为水资源承载力评价提供多维量化评价体系与方法。
Water resources are basic security for supporting regional economic and social development.Scientific and rational evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is of significance to achieve sustainable development of regional socio-economy.Based on the dimensions of"quantity,quality,domain,flow",water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system was constructed.Aiming at the uncertainty problem of index quantification and classification of grades,the evaluating model of water resources carrying capacity based on normal cloud theory was established,and the sensitivity of index weight was analyzed by one-at-a-time(OAT).The evaluating index system and model were applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin in 2015.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity level eigenvalue of the Yellow River Basin is 2.70,which is in the critical state of the third level;meanwhile,the water quantity carrying capacity is in Grade Ⅲ;the water quality,watershed and water flow dimension are Grade Ⅱ;except for Gansu,Ningxia,Shanxi and Henan province,which are in Grade Ⅱ,other provinces are in Grade Ⅲ;The evaluation results are consistent with the evaluation results of SPA-VFS and TOPSIS,which indicates that the evaluating index system and model based on "quantity,quality,domain,flow"are effective and feasible,and the results are reliable.This research result can provide multi-dimensional quantification of water resources carrying capacity evaluation system and method.
Water resources are basic security for supporting regional economic and social development.Scientific and rational evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is of significance to achieve sustainable development of regional socio-economy.Based on the dimensions of"quantity,quality,domain,flow",water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system was constructed.Aiming at the uncertainty problem of index quantification and classification of grades,the evaluating model of water resources carrying capacity based on normal cloud theory was established,and the sensitivity of index weight was analyzed by one-at-a-time(OAT).The evaluating index system and model were applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity of the Yellow River Basin in 2015.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity level eigenvalue of the Yellow River Basin is 2.70,which is in the critical state of the third level;meanwhile,the water quantity carrying capacity is in Grade Ⅲ;the water quality,watershed and water flow dimension are Grade Ⅱ;except for Gansu,Ningxia,Shanxi and Henan province,which are in Grade Ⅱ,other provinces are in Grade Ⅲ;The evaluation results are consistent with the evaluation results of SPA-VFS and TOPSIS,which indicates that the evaluating index system and model based on "quantity,quality,domain,flow"are effective and feasible,and the results are reliable.This research result can provide multi-dimensional quantification of water resources carrying capacity evaluation system and method.
引文
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[23]倪九派,李萍,魏朝富,等.基于AHP和熵权法赋权的区域土地开发整理潜力评价[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(5):202-209.
[24]田雨,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,等.水文模型参数敏感性分析方法研究评述[J].水文,2010,30(4):9-12.
[25]CHEN Y,YU J,Khan S.Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2010,25(12):1 582-1 591.
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[2]金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.不同承载标准下水资源承载力评价[J].水科学进展,2018,29(1):31-39.
[3]左其亭,张修宇.气候变化下水资源动态承载力研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(4):387-395.
[4]封志明,杨艳昭,游珍.中国人口分布的水资源限制性与限制度研究[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(10):1 637-1 648.
[5]王浩,游进军.中国水资源配置30年[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):265-271.
[6]苏永军,王慧,孔淑芹.基于投影寻踪-物元可拓模型的区域水资源承载力评价[J].节水灌溉,2017,(2):80-84.
[7]张忠学,马蔷.基于模糊综合评价的区域农业水资源承载力研究---以绥化市北林区为例[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(1):49-54.
[8]汪嘉杨,李祚泳,余静.水资源承载力评价的升半Г型分布指数公式[J].自然资源学报,2014,(5):868-874.
[9]宰松梅,温季,仵峰,等.河南省新乡市水资源承载力评价研究[J].水利学报,2011,39(7):783-788.
[10]SONG X M,ZHAN C S.Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianjin City of China[J].Water Resources Management,2011,25(3):857-873.
[11]王建华,姜大川,肖伟华,等.基于动态试算反馈的水资源承载力评价方法研究---以沂河流域(临沂段)为例[J].水利学报,2016,47(6):724-732.
[12]姜大川,肖伟华,范晨媛,等.武汉城市圈水资源及水环境承载力分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5):761-768.
[13]Ait-Aoudia M N,Berezowska-Azzag E.Water resources carrying capacity assessment:The case of Algeria's capital city[J].Habitat International,2016,58:51-58.
[14]何仁伟,刘邵权,刘运伟.基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力---以贵州省毕节地区为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1 376-1 382.
[15]王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1 023-1 029.
[16]朱一中,夏军,谈戈.西北地区水资源承载力分析预测与评价[J].资源科学,2003,25(4):43-48.
[17]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.三江平原水资源承载力评价及区域差异[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(9):184-190.
[18]王建华,何凡.承载力视域下的水资源消耗总量和强度双控行动认知解析[J].中国水利,2016(23):34-35.
[19]周云哲,粟晓玲.基于指标规范化的正态云模型的水安全评价[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):18-24.
[20]胡吉敏.沿海地区水资源承载力评价研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2008.
[21]李德毅,刘常昱,杜鹢,等.不确定性人工智能[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2014:1 583-1 594.
[22]吴开亚,金菊良,周玉良,等.流域水资源安全评价的集对分析与可变模糊集耦合模型[J].工程科学与技术,2008,(3):6-12.
[23]倪九派,李萍,魏朝富,等.基于AHP和熵权法赋权的区域土地开发整理潜力评价[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(5):202-209.
[24]田雨,雷晓辉,蒋云钟,等.水文模型参数敏感性分析方法研究评述[J].水文,2010,30(4):9-12.
[25]CHEN Y,YU J,Khan S.Spatial sensitivity analysis of multi-criteria weights in GIS-based land suitability evaluation[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,2010,25(12):1 582-1 591.
[26]华小义,谭景信.基于“垂面”距离的TOPSIS法---正交投影法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(1):114-119.