绍兴市居民高温中暑与气象因素的相关性研究
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摘要
目的了解2017年绍兴市高温中暑病例的流行病学特征及与气象因素的关系,为预防高温中暑提供依据。方法收集2017年7—8月绍兴市高温中暑病例资料和每日气象资料,描述性分析高温中暑病例的三间分布,并采用多因素Logistic回归模型分析高温中暑与气象因素的关系。结果 2017年7—8月绍兴市报告高温中暑病例759例,平均年龄为(53.3±17.9)岁;其中男性487例占64.16%,女性272例占35.84%;轻症中暑618例占81.42%,重症中暑141例占18.58%;重症中暑死亡6例,病死率为4.26%。最低气温(rs=0.851,P<0.001)、最高气温(rs=0.726,P<0.001)和风速(rs=0.285,P=0.025)与高温中暑发病例数呈正相关;相对湿度(rs=-0.693,P<0.001)和降雨(rs=-0.414,P=0.001)与高温中暑发病例数呈负相关。Logistic回归分析结果显示,日最低气温较高是重症中暑的危险因素(OR=1.854,95%CI:1.606～2.140)。结论绍兴市重症中暑患者病死率较高,日最低气温高与重症中暑有相关性。
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of heatstroke and its correlation with meteorologicalfactors in Shaoxing in 2017,and to provide evidence for heatstroke prevention and control. Methods The data of heatstrokecases and the daily meteorological indexes were collected from July 2017 to August 2017 in Shaoxing to describe the spatial,temporal and population distribution of heatstroke cases. The correlation between heatstroke and meteorological factors wasanalyzed by multivariate logistic regression model. Results A total of 759 cases of heatstroke were reported,with an averageage of(53.3 ±17.9) years. There were 487 males cases(64.16%) and 272 female cases(35.84%). There were 618 casesof mild heatstroke(81.42%) and 141 cases of severe heatstroke(18.58%). There were six cases of death from severeheatstroke, and the mortality of severe heatstroke was 4.26%. Minimum temperature(rs=0.851, P <0.001), maximumtemperature(rs=0.726, P <0.001) and wind speed(rs=0.285, P=0.025) were positively correlated with the incidence ofheatstroke,and relative humidity(rs=-0.693,P<0.001) and rainfall(rs=-0.414,P=0.001) were negatively correlated withthe incidence of heatstroke. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that high daily minimum temperature was a riskfactor for severe heatstroke(OR=1.854,95%CI:1.606-2.140). Conclusion The mortality of severe heatstroke patients washigh in Shaoxing,the daily minimum temperature was correlated with severe heatstroke.
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of heatstroke and its correlation with meteorologicalfactors in Shaoxing in 2017,and to provide evidence for heatstroke prevention and control. Methods The data of heatstrokecases and the daily meteorological indexes were collected from July 2017 to August 2017 in Shaoxing to describe the spatial,temporal and population distribution of heatstroke cases. The correlation between heatstroke and meteorological factors wasanalyzed by multivariate logistic regression model. Results A total of 759 cases of heatstroke were reported,with an averageage of(53.3 ±17.9) years. There were 487 males cases(64.16%) and 272 female cases(35.84%). There were 618 casesof mild heatstroke(81.42%) and 141 cases of severe heatstroke(18.58%). There were six cases of death from severeheatstroke, and the mortality of severe heatstroke was 4.26%. Minimum temperature(rs=0.851, P <0.001), maximumtemperature(rs=0.726, P <0.001) and wind speed(rs=0.285, P=0.025) were positively correlated with the incidence ofheatstroke,and relative humidity(rs=-0.693,P<0.001) and rainfall(rs=-0.414,P=0.001) were negatively correlated withthe incidence of heatstroke. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that high daily minimum temperature was a riskfactor for severe heatstroke(OR=1.854,95%CI:1.606-2.140). Conclusion The mortality of severe heatstroke patients washigh in Shaoxing,the daily minimum temperature was correlated with severe heatstroke.
引文
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[12]蒋国钦,李明,邢超,等.2008至2014年绍兴市高温中暑流行病学特征[J].中华劳动卫生职业病杂志,2016,34(2):131-133.
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[14]王晓婷,张军,孙洁,等.2007至2012年济南市高温中暑事件分析[J].预防医学论坛,2013,19(10):793-794.
[15]苏磊,董华生.重症中暑转化医学研究回顾与展望[J].解放军医学杂志,2017,42(2):103-108.
[16]许明佳,程薇.2010-2014年上海市金山区高温中暑流行特征及其与气温的关系[J].职业与健康,2015,31(19):2657-2663.
[17]董晨,许慧慧,金奇昂,等.2009-2010年上海市居民中暑死亡病例特征分析[J].环境与职业医学,2012,29(12):763-766.
[18]吴成峰,张乾驰,丁士.2012-2016年安徽铜陵市高温中暑病例分析[J].疾病监测,2017,28(5):61-63.
[19]王旭初,李清春,刘庆敏,等.高温热浪对人群死亡风险的影响[J].预防医学,2017,29(6):603-606.
[20]何玲玲,陈正洪,李松汉,等.城市居民中暑流行病学特征及其与气象因子的关系[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(3):271-274.
[21]LI J,XU X,DING G,et al.A cross-sectional study of heatwave-related knowledge,attitude,and practice among the public in the Licheng District of Jinan City,China[J].International Journal of Environment Research and Public Health,2016,13(7):648-663.
[2]刘建军,郑有飞,吴荣军.热浪灾害对人体健康的影响及其方法研究[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(1):151-156.
[3]潘志国,邵玉,刘亚楠,等.重症中暑患者入院早期凝血功能指标与预后的关系[J].中华危重病急救医学,2013,25(12):725-728.
[4]绍兴气象信息网.绍兴市气候影响评价[EB/OL].(2018-09-05)[2018-09-29].http://qxj.sx.gov.cn/upload/201809/06/201809061246306741.pdf.
[5]中华人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会.职业性中暑诊断标准:GBZ 41-2002[S].2002.
[6]肖长春,李玉荣.合肥市2014年高温中暑流行病学特征及其与气象因子关联研究[J].安徽预防医学杂志,2015,21(6):396-398,459.
[7]陈振龙,乔子虹,王冬明,等.2009至2013年武汉市高温中暑情况分析[J].中华劳动卫生职业病杂志,2015,33(4):260-262.
[8]崔亮亮,周敬文,耿兴义,等.2011-2014年济南市高温高温中暑病例流行病学特征及风险分析[J].环境与健康杂志,2015,32(9):809-812.
[9]谷少华,李晓海,边国林,等.宁波市2011-2014年中暑报告病例流行病学调查研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2017,18(4):254-257.
[10]戴,黄玮奕,张志兰,等.2016-2017年南通市高温中暑流行病学特征分析[J].环境卫生学杂志,2018,8(2):126-129.
[11]陈秀红,奚用勇,胡昕冬,等.2013-2017年上海市浦东新区高温中暑病例流行病学特征[J].职业与健康,2018,34(16):2250-2253.
[12]蒋国钦,李明,邢超,等.2008至2014年绍兴市高温中暑流行病学特征[J].中华劳动卫生职业病杂志,2016,34(2):131-133.
[13]刘磊,宋丹丹,侯赛,等.2010-2016年安徽省高温中暑流行病学特征[J].疾病监测,2017,32(10):895-899.
[14]王晓婷,张军,孙洁,等.2007至2012年济南市高温中暑事件分析[J].预防医学论坛,2013,19(10):793-794.
[15]苏磊,董华生.重症中暑转化医学研究回顾与展望[J].解放军医学杂志,2017,42(2):103-108.
[16]许明佳,程薇.2010-2014年上海市金山区高温中暑流行特征及其与气温的关系[J].职业与健康,2015,31(19):2657-2663.
[17]董晨,许慧慧,金奇昂,等.2009-2010年上海市居民中暑死亡病例特征分析[J].环境与职业医学,2012,29(12):763-766.
[18]吴成峰,张乾驰,丁士.2012-2016年安徽铜陵市高温中暑病例分析[J].疾病监测,2017,28(5):61-63.
[19]王旭初,李清春,刘庆敏,等.高温热浪对人群死亡风险的影响[J].预防医学,2017,29(6):603-606.
[20]何玲玲,陈正洪,李松汉,等.城市居民中暑流行病学特征及其与气象因子的关系[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(3):271-274.
[21]LI J,XU X,DING G,et al.A cross-sectional study of heatwave-related knowledge,attitude,and practice among the public in the Licheng District of Jinan City,China[J].International Journal of Environment Research and Public Health,2016,13(7):648-663.