基于AHP-GIS的重庆市山洪灾害风险区划研究
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摘要
山洪灾害风险评估与区划是山洪风险管理和决策的重要依据,可有效指导山洪灾害防治工作。利用重庆市2013～2015年山洪灾害调查评价数据,融合降雨条件、下垫面、人口条件、经济财产等多元参数,嵌入抗灾能力修正系数,建立重庆市山洪灾害风险性评价指标体系。利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标权重,并依托ArcGIS空间分析叠加功能得到重庆市山洪灾害危险性、易损性、风险性分布图。经多目标图层综合叠加与非监督聚类分析,将境内山洪灾害风险强度分为微、低、中、较高、高5个等级,其面积比例分别为14. 97%、25. 19%、24. 41%、22. 2%及13. 23%。据此,将重庆市山洪灾害风险划分为渝东北高海拔山地较高风险区(1. 42 km~2)、渝东北中海拔山地中低风险区(1. 12 km~2)、渝东南中海拔山地高风险区(1. 69 km~2)、渝中部低海拔山地低风险区(2. 07 km~2)、渝西中低丘陵低微风险区(0. 59 km~2)及渝西低丘平坝较高风险区(1. 34km~2) 6个分区,风险度分布与分区结果客观反映了山洪灾害发生特点、分布情况、易发程度和防治迫切程度的区域差异。
The risk assessment and regionalization of torrential flood disasters are the important basis for the management and decision-making,which could provide effectively guidance for the prevention and control of torrential flood disasters. According to investigation and evaluation project of torrential flood disasters from 2013 to2015,the risk assessment indexes were established in consideration of rainfall conditions,underlying surface,population conditions,economic property and other multiple parameters and corrected by disaster resilience. With the weight of each indexes determining by the Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP),the hazard,vulnerability,risk distributions map of torrential flood disasters in Chongqing were overlaid by the means of ArcGIS. Through the multiple target layer composite overlay and non-supervised cluster analysis,the risk distributions map was divided into five categories: micro risk,low risk,medium risk,medium to high risk,and high risk with the area ratios14. 97%,25. 19%,24. 41%,22. 2% and 13. 23%,respectively. Accordingly,the torrential flood disasters in Chongqing was divided into six areas: the medium to high risk zonation in the northeastern high altitude mountainous regions( 1. 42 km2),the low to medium risk zonation in the northeastern medium altitude mountainous regions( 1. 12 km2),the high risk zonation in the southeastern medium altitude mountainous regions( 1. 69 km2),the low risk zonation in the central low altitude mountainous regions( 2. 07 km2),the micro to low risk zonation in the central low hill regions( 0. 59 km2) and the medium to high risk zonation in the west hillflatland regions( 1. 34 km2),which objectively reflected the regional differences of the torrential flood disasters characteristics,distribution,proneness,and urgency.
The risk assessment and regionalization of torrential flood disasters are the important basis for the management and decision-making,which could provide effectively guidance for the prevention and control of torrential flood disasters. According to investigation and evaluation project of torrential flood disasters from 2013 to2015,the risk assessment indexes were established in consideration of rainfall conditions,underlying surface,population conditions,economic property and other multiple parameters and corrected by disaster resilience. With the weight of each indexes determining by the Analytic Hierarchy Process( AHP),the hazard,vulnerability,risk distributions map of torrential flood disasters in Chongqing were overlaid by the means of ArcGIS. Through the multiple target layer composite overlay and non-supervised cluster analysis,the risk distributions map was divided into five categories: micro risk,low risk,medium risk,medium to high risk,and high risk with the area ratios14. 97%,25. 19%,24. 41%,22. 2% and 13. 23%,respectively. Accordingly,the torrential flood disasters in Chongqing was divided into six areas: the medium to high risk zonation in the northeastern high altitude mountainous regions( 1. 42 km2),the low to medium risk zonation in the northeastern medium altitude mountainous regions( 1. 12 km2),the high risk zonation in the southeastern medium altitude mountainous regions( 1. 69 km2),the low risk zonation in the central low altitude mountainous regions( 2. 07 km2),the micro to low risk zonation in the central low hill regions( 0. 59 km2) and the medium to high risk zonation in the west hillflatland regions( 1. 34 km2),which objectively reflected the regional differences of the torrential flood disasters characteristics,distribution,proneness,and urgency.
引文
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[2]任洪玉,邹翔,张平仓.我国山洪灾害成因分析[J].中国水利,2007(14):18-20.REN H Y,ZOU X,ZHANG P C. An elementary study on causing-factors of Chinese mountain torrents disaster[J]. China Water Resources,2007(14):18-20.
[3]长江水利委员会.全国山洪灾害防治规划报告[R].武汉,2005.Changjiang Water Resources Commission. The mountain torrent disaster prevention and control of the national planning report[R]. Wuhan:Changjiang Water Resources Commission,2005.
[4]马建华,胡维忠.我国山洪灾害防灾形势及防治对策[J].人民长江. 2005(10):5-8.MA J H,HU W Z. Disaster prevention situation and prevention countermeasures of mountain torrent disasters in China[J].Yangtze River,2005(10):5-8.
[5]赵健,范北林.全国山洪灾害时空分布特点研究[J].中国水利. 2006(13):45-47.ZHAO J,FANG B L. Characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of mountain flood in China[J]. China Water Resources,2006(13):45-47.
[6]张骞.基于GIS的北京地区山洪灾害风险区划研究[D].北京:首都师范大学,2014.ZHANG Q. Study on risk zoning of mountain torrents disaster in Beijing based on GIS[D]. Beijing:Capital Normal University,2014.
[7]周成虎,万庆.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报. 2000,55(1):15-24.ZHOU C H,WAN Q. A GIS-based approach to flood risk zonation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(1):15-24.
[8]唐余学,廖向花,李晶,等.基于GIS的重庆市山洪灾害区划[J].气象科技,2011,39(4):423-428.TANG Y X,LIAO X H,LI J,et al. Regionalization of torrential flood disasters in Chongqing based on GIS[J]. Meteorological Scince and Technology,2011,39(4):423-428.
[9]唐川,朱静.基于GIS的山洪灾害风险区划[J].地理学报,2005,60(1):87-94.TANG C,ZHU J. A GIS based regional torrent risk zonation[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2005,60(1):87-94.
[10] MASKREY A. Disaster mitigation:A community based approach[J]. Oxford England Oxfam,1989.
[11] SMITH K. Environmental hazards:Assessing risk and reducing disaster[J]. Weather,2012,52(3):96-97.
[12]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(12):40-43.CHEN G Y,YAN Y M. Research on critical precipitation amount computation method of mountain torrential flood disaster[J].Yangtze River,2005,36(12):40-43.
[13]石林,周世平.山洪灾害防治地形地质区划方法[J].中国水利,2007(14):28-31.SHI L,ZHOU S P. Landform and geological zoning for mountain flood prevention[J]. China Water Resources,2007(14):28-31.
[14]罗培,张天儒,杜军.基于GIS和模糊评价法的重庆洪涝灾害风险区划[J].西华师范大学学报(自然科学版).2007,28(2):165-171.LUO P,ZHANG T R,DU J. GIS and hazy evaluation method based on hazard evaluation for flood disaster:Taking Chongqing as an example[J]. Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences),2007,28(2):165-171.
[15]杜俊,丁文峰,任洪玉.四川省不同类型山洪灾害与主要影响因素的关系[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(11):1977-1983.DU J,DING W F,REN H Y. Relationships between different types of flashflood disasters and their main impact factors in the Sichuan Province[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin. 2015,24(11):1977-1983.
[16]刘希林,莫多闻.泥石流风险评价[M].四川科学技术出版社,2003:569-577.LIU X L,MO D W. The risk evaluation of debris flow[M]. Sichuan Science and Technology Press,2003:569-577.
[17]金晓冬,罗云.区域社会经济“易灾性”综合评价实践[J].灾害学,1993(4):1-5.JIN X D,LUO Y. Comprehensive assessment practice on “the disaster vulnerability” of local social economy[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,1993(4):1-5.
[18] WEI Y M,YING F,CONG L,et al. The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review. 2004,24(4):427-439.
[19]梅勇,唐云辉,况星.基于GIS技术的重庆市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(32):287-293.MEI Y,TANG Y H,KANG X. The study of risk zoning of rainstorm and flood disaster based on GIS in Chongqing[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2011,27(32):287-293.
[20]丁文峰,杜俊,陈小平,等.四川省山洪灾害风险评估与区划[J].长江科学院院报. 2015,32(12):41-45.DING W F,DU J,CHEN X P,et al. Risk assessment and regionalization of mountain torrent disaster in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute.2015,32(12):41-45.
[21]李栋,吴博,郑秀清,等.基于AHP和GIS的吕梁地区小流域山洪灾害风险区划[J].水电能源科学,2017(7):85-88.LI D,WU B,ZHENG X Q,et al. Risk regionalization of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed of Lvliang Area based on AHP and GIS[J]. Water Resources and Power,2017(7):85-88.
[22]李文静,林凯荣,刘玥,等.基于GIS-AHP集成的无资料小流域山洪灾害风险评价[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(8):103-107.LI W J,LIN K R,LIU Y,et al. Flash flood risk assessment in ungaged small basin based on GIS and AHP integrated method[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower. 2017(8):103-107.
[23]岳琦,张林波,刘成程,等.基于GIS的福建闽江上游山洪灾害风险区划[J].环境工程技术学报,2015,5(4):293-298.YUE Q,ZHANG L B,LIU C C,et al. GIS-based risk zoning of flood disaster in upstream of the Minjiang River[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology,2015,5(4):293-298.
[24]陆桂华,钟凌,吴志勇,等.中小流域山洪危险性区划[J].地球科学(中国地质大学学报),2014,39(10):1438-1444.LU G H,ZHONG L,WU Z Y,et al. Zoning of mountain torrent hazards in medium-small river basins[J]. Editorial Committee of Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences,2014,39(10):1438-1444.
[25]关丽,陈品祥,闫宁,等.基于GIS的北京市山区防洪灾害风险区划技术探讨[J].城市勘测. 2016(4):18-23.GUAN L,CHEN P X,YAN N,et al. Risk zonation technology and example of Beijing mountain torrent based on GIS[J].Urban Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying,2016(4):18-23.
[26]李岷,王国霞,田子荀.基于GIS技术的宁夏山洪灾害风险区划初探[J].中国水利,2017(7):38-41.LI M,WANG G X,TIAN Z X. A preliminary study on regional division of flood disaster risks in Ningxia based on GIS technology[J]. China Water Resources,2017(7):38-41.
[27]王荣喆,李玲萍,李文莉.基于GIS技术的武威市山洪灾害风险区划初探[J].干旱气象,2013,31(3):602-608.WANG R J,LI L P,LI W L. Risk division of flood disaster in Wuwei based on GIS[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology,2013,31(3):602-608.
[28]邱瑞田,黄先龙,褚明华,等. 2015年全国山洪灾害防治工作进展[J].中国防汛抗旱. 2016,26(1):41-44.QIU R T,HUANG X L,ZHU M H,et al. Progress in disaster prevention and control of mountain flood in 2015[J]. China Flood and Drought Management. 2016,26(1):41-44.
[29] TOBIN GA M B. Natural hazards:Explanation and integration[M]. New York:The Guilford Press,1997.
[30] DEYLE R E,FRENCH S P, OLSHANSKY R B. Hazard assessment:The factual basis for planning and mitigation. In:R J Burby(ed.),Cooperating with nature confronting natural hazards with land-use planning for sustainable[M]. Washington D C:Joseph Henry Press,1998:119-166.
[31] UNDRO. Mitigating natural disasters,phenomena,effects and options. A manual for policy makers and planners[M]. New York,UNDRO,1991.
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