基于围堰施工导流系统风险率不确定性分析
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摘要
围堰施工导流工程设计应综合考虑水力、水文以及其他不确定性因素的影响,施工导流系统风险概率作为工程设计的重要依据,在围堰施工过程中发挥着中重要作用。针对传统导流风险计算方法忽略了参数及分布的不确定性问题,而仅仅考虑单一不确定因素的概率分布及其参数值的实际状况,对围堰导流系统风险率的不确定性利用Monte-Carlo仿真法进行分析,并综合考虑水文、水力及其他分布参数的不确定性影响作用。结果显示:导流系统风险率受水文、水力因素的不确定性影响较为显著,综合考虑各不确定性水力与水文因素的导流风险率服从正态分布。
The influence of hydraulic, hydrological and other uncertainties should be considered comprehensively in the design of cofferdam construction diversion project. As an important basis for engineering design, the risk probability of construction diversion system plays an important role in the process of cofferdam construction. In view of the fact that the traditional risk calculation method neglected the uncertainties of parameters and distribution, and only considered the probability distribution of a single uncertain factor and the actual situation of its parameter value,the uncertainty of risk rate of cofferdam diversion system was analyzed by Monte-Carlo simulation method, and the uncertainty effects of hydrological, hydraulic and other distribution parameters were considered comprehensively. The results showed that the risk rate of diversion system was significantly affected by the uncertainties of hydrological and hydraulic factors. The risk rate of diversion system considering the uncertainties of hydraulic and hydrological factors obeyed the normal distribution.
The influence of hydraulic, hydrological and other uncertainties should be considered comprehensively in the design of cofferdam construction diversion project. As an important basis for engineering design, the risk probability of construction diversion system plays an important role in the process of cofferdam construction. In view of the fact that the traditional risk calculation method neglected the uncertainties of parameters and distribution, and only considered the probability distribution of a single uncertain factor and the actual situation of its parameter value,the uncertainty of risk rate of cofferdam diversion system was analyzed by Monte-Carlo simulation method, and the uncertainty effects of hydrological, hydraulic and other distribution parameters were considered comprehensively. The results showed that the risk rate of diversion system was significantly affected by the uncertainties of hydrological and hydraulic factors. The risk rate of diversion system considering the uncertainties of hydraulic and hydrological factors obeyed the normal distribution.
引文
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[6]肖焕雄,孙志禹.不过水围堰超标洪水风险率计算[J].水利学报,1996,(2):37-42+36.
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