初始场和分辨率对WRF模拟对流性降水的影响
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摘要
文章利用WRF模式分析了2015年7月29日内蒙古中部地区一次典型冷涡过程带来的对流性降水,探讨了初始场和网格分辨率对对流性降水模拟结果的影响。初始场和网格分辨率均会影响模式模拟结果,对于对流性短时强降水而言,在相同的初始场条件下,网格分辨率越高,对降水强度和落区的预报越准确,而在相同的高分辨率网格条件下,初始场的精度越高,模拟不同等级降水的TS评分均较高,表明在高分辨率网格和高精度的初始场条件下,模式对不同等级的降水均有较好的模拟。
Based on the WRF model, a convective precipitation was analyzed and simulated in Central Inner Mongolia on 29 July,2015. The influence of initial field and grid resolution on simulation results of convection precipitation was discussed. Both the initial field and the grid resolution affect the results of model simulation. For convective short-time heavy precipitation, the higher the grid resolution under the same initial field conditions, the more accurate the forecast of precipitation intensity and rainfall area. Under the same high-resolution grid conditions, the higher the accuracy of the initial field, the higher the TS scores for simulating different grades of precipitation. It shows that the model has a good simulation for different grades of precipitation under high-resolution grid and high-precision initial field conditions.
Based on the WRF model, a convective precipitation was analyzed and simulated in Central Inner Mongolia on 29 July,2015. The influence of initial field and grid resolution on simulation results of convection precipitation was discussed. Both the initial field and the grid resolution affect the results of model simulation. For convective short-time heavy precipitation, the higher the grid resolution under the same initial field conditions, the more accurate the forecast of precipitation intensity and rainfall area. Under the same high-resolution grid conditions, the higher the accuracy of the initial field, the higher the TS scores for simulating different grades of precipitation. It shows that the model has a good simulation for different grades of precipitation under high-resolution grid and high-precision initial field conditions.
引文
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[4]张云,雷恒池,钱贞成.一次东北冷涡衰退阶段暴雨成因分析[J].大气科学,2008,32(3):481-498
[5]罗玲,胡亮,何金梅,等.东北冷涡背景下浙江省两次强降水过程的对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,2011,27(6):35-42
[6]陶玥,李宏宇,洪延超.一次华北暴雨的云物理特征及霰雹分类对云和降水影响的数值模拟研究[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):166-178
[7]马思敏,刘晓莉,杨侃,等.宁夏固原市一次对流性天气的数值模拟[J].干旱气象,2015,33(2):278-290.
[8]肖辉,银燕.污染气溶胶对山西一次降水过程影响的数值模拟[J].大气科学,2011,35(2):235-246.
[9]Ma Chenchen,Yu Ye,He Jianjun,et al.Analysis of simulation result in Loess Plateau by WRF model with two reanalysis data[J].Plateau Meteorology,2014,33(3):698-711.
[10]黄海波,陈春艳,朱雯娜.WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案及水平分辨率对降水预报效果的影响[J].气象科技,2011,39(5):529-536.
[11]Colle B A,Mass C F.Windstorms along the western side of the Washington Cascade Mountains.Part I:A high-resolution observational and modeling study of the 12 February 1995 event[J].Mon Wea Rev,1998,126(11):28-52.
[12]Bernadet L R,Grasso L D,Nachamkin J E,et al.Simulating convective events using a high-resolution mesoscale model[J].JGeophys Res,2000,105:14963-14982.
[13]王春明,王元,武荣生.模式水平分辨率对梅雨锋降水定量预报的影响水[J].水动力学研究与进展,2004,19(1):71-80.
[14]Chow F K,Weigel A P,Street R L,et al.High-resolution large-eddy simulations of flow in a steep Alpine valley.Part I:Methodology,verification,and sensitivity experiments[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2006,45(1):63-86.
[15]Etherton B,Santos P.Sensitivity of WRF forcasts for south Florida to initial conditions[J].Wea.Forcasting,2008,23(4):725-740.
[16]徐慧燕,朱业,刘瑞,等.长江下游地区不同边界层参数化方案的试验研究[J].大气科学,2013,37(1):149-159.
[17]常俊,彭新东,范广州,等.结合历史资料的数值天气预报误差订正[J].气象学报,2015,73(2):342-354.