“二十四道拐”盘山公路事故预测分析
|
摘要
应用IHSDM安全评估软件,对"二十四道拐"盘山公路全线进行事故预测,并预测1944年改善工程前"第21拐"、"第22拐"路段与改善后对应路段发生事故的概率,以评价"二十四道拐"盘山公路的行车安全性及验证改善工程的合理性。预测结果发现"二十四道拐"盘山公路1940年至1945年5年的时间内共发生4.02起事故,其中68%的事故类型为"仅财产损失";在1944年改善工程调整"二十四道拐"盘山公路的"第21拐"、"第22拐"后,对应改善路段总预测事故起数降低了10.5%,且发生"死亡、严重受伤事故"的概率降低了14.3%,第4拐事故率降低了14.6%,第5拐事故率降低了38.8%。研究表明:"二十四道拐"盘山公路发生事故的概率较低,且事故损伤严重程度较轻;改善工程取消半径较小S型曲线后,行车安全性有所提高。可见,修筑于战时环境下的"二十四道拐"盘山公路线形设计基本能满足当时交通运输的行车安全性,其独特的线形设计也为现代山区公路的修建提供设计启示与技术参考。
By using IHSDM( Interactive Highway Safety Design Model),the accident prediction of "24-zigs"mountain road was made,and the accident probability of the section from "the 21 st-zig " to "the 22 nd-zig " before and after improvement project in 1944 was predicted,so as to evaluate the driving security of"24-zigs"mountain road and to verify the rationality of the improvement project. The prediction results found that there were 4.02 accidents in the period from 1940 to 1945,and 68% of the accident type was"property loss only". After the adjustment of"the 21 st-zig"and"the 22 nd-zig"in 1944 improvement project,the total number of accidents predicted for the improved sections decreased by 10.5%,the probability of"death and serious injury accidents"decreased by 14.3%,the accident rate of"the 4 th-zig"turned down by14.6%,and the accident rate of "the 5 th-zig"turned down by 38. 8%. The research results indicate that there is a low accident probability on"24-zigs"mountain road,and the accident damage is less severe. After the S-shaped curve with smaller radius is cancelled after the improvement project,the driving safety is improved. Obviously,although built in the wartime,the"24-zigs"mountain road can satisfy the primary driving security at that time,and its unique alignment design also provides design inspiration and technical reference for the construction of modern mountainous roads.
By using IHSDM( Interactive Highway Safety Design Model),the accident prediction of "24-zigs"mountain road was made,and the accident probability of the section from "the 21 st-zig " to "the 22 nd-zig " before and after improvement project in 1944 was predicted,so as to evaluate the driving security of"24-zigs"mountain road and to verify the rationality of the improvement project. The prediction results found that there were 4.02 accidents in the period from 1940 to 1945,and 68% of the accident type was"property loss only". After the adjustment of"the 21 st-zig"and"the 22 nd-zig"in 1944 improvement project,the total number of accidents predicted for the improved sections decreased by 10.5%,the probability of"death and serious injury accidents"decreased by 14.3%,the accident rate of"the 4 th-zig"turned down by14.6%,and the accident rate of "the 5 th-zig"turned down by 38. 8%. The research results indicate that there is a low accident probability on"24-zigs"mountain road,and the accident damage is less severe. After the S-shaped curve with smaller radius is cancelled after the improvement project,the driving safety is improved. Obviously,although built in the wartime,the"24-zigs"mountain road can satisfy the primary driving security at that time,and its unique alignment design also provides design inspiration and technical reference for the construction of modern mountainous roads.
引文
[1]戈叔亚,宗和.一张老照片引出的追寻---“24拐”凝聚着“二战”的记忆[J].中国公路,2003(10):50-56.GE Shuya,ZONG He.The memory about world warⅡwhich was reminded by the old photo of“24-zigs”[J].China Highway,2003(10):50-56.
[2]牟之先,凯里·汉姆.史迪威公路[M].重庆:重庆出版社,2005.MU Zhixian,HAM K.The Stilwell Road[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Press,2005.
[3]邓茜,陈亚林.历史的弯道:24道拐[M].北京:解放军出版社,2005.DENG Qian,CHEN Yalin.Historical Curves:24-zigs[M].Beijing:The People's Liberation Army Press,2005.
[4]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Stilwell's Mission to China[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1987:110-210.
[5]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Stilwell's Command Problem[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1987:68-136.
[6]韩继伟.“史迪威公路”的形象标识:晴隆“二十四道拐”盘山公路的形成及作用[J].党史研究与教学,2013(6):101-107..HAN Jiwei.The image of“Stilwell Road”:the formation and effect of“24-zigs”mountain road in Qinglong[J].Party History Research&Teaching,2013(6):101-107.
[7]韩继伟,彭建兵.重启史迪威公路的多视角分析---以贵州晴隆“二十四道拐”为切入点[M].山东:齐鲁书社,2014.HAN Jiwei,PENG Jianbin.A Multi-perspective Analysis of Restoring Stilwell Road:Taking the“24-zigs”in Qinglong County of Guizhou Province as the Breakthrough Point[M].Shandong:Qilu Press,2014.
[8]唐伯明,尚婷,姜志刚,等.二战交通史话---史迪威公路[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2014.TANG Boming,SHANG Ting,JIANG Zhigang,et al.Traffic History of the Second World War:The Stilwell Road[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2014.
[9]张勃,万宇,刘玚,等.黔滇公路二十四道拐的修筑及其历史价值研究[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2016,35(增刊1):79-85.ZHANG Bo,WAN Yu,LIU Yang,et al.Research on the construction and historic values of 24 zigs along Guizhou-Yunnan highway[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science),2016,35(Sup1):79-85.
[10]REAGAN J A.The Interactive Highway Safety Design Model:Designing for Safety by Analyzing Road Geometrics[M].Washington,D.C.:Federal Highway Administration,1995.
[11]BANSEN J,PASSETTI K.Application of the IHSDM:a case study[C]//3rdInternational Symposium on Highway Geometric Design.Chicago:TRB,2005:1221-1225.
[12]MARCHIONNA A,PERCO P,FALCONETTI N.Evaluation of the applicability of IHSDM crash prediction module on Italian two-lane rural roads[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012(53):932-941.
[13]PERCO P,MARCHIONNA A,FALCONETTI N.Application of design consistency evaluation tools for two-lane rural roads:a case study from Italy[C]//Transportation Research Board 90thAnnual Meeting.Washington,D.C.:Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2011.
[14]ITT Corporation.Interactive Highway Safety Design Model Consistency Module Engineer's Manual[S].USA:ITT Corporation,2015.
[15]STILWELL J W.The Stilwell Papers[M].Beijing:Foreign Languages Press,1991.
[16]唐伯明,张勃,尚婷.二战交通史话---国家生命通道[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2017.TANG Boming,ZHANG Bo,SHANG Ting.Traffic History of the Second World War:China's Life Line[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2017.
[17]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Time Runs out in CBI[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1999:38.
[18]贵州省地方志编纂委员会.贵州省志交通志[M].贵州:贵州人民出版社,1991.Committee for Guizhou Local Chronicles.Guizhou Chronicles Transport Chronicles[M].Guizhou:Guizhou People's Press,1991.
[19]韩继伟.史迪威公路“24道拐”战略解读[J].兰台世界,2012(4):55-56.HAN Jiwei.Strategic Interpretation of Stilwell Road and“24-zigs”[J].Lantai World,2012(4):55-56.
[20]CHUO K,SAITO M.Applicability of the crash prediction module of IHSDM to the selection of candidate locations for safety audits of two-lane rural highway[C]//Proceedings of the 88thTRB Annual Meeting.Washington,D.C.:TRB,2009.
[2]牟之先,凯里·汉姆.史迪威公路[M].重庆:重庆出版社,2005.MU Zhixian,HAM K.The Stilwell Road[M].Chongqing:Chongqing Press,2005.
[3]邓茜,陈亚林.历史的弯道:24道拐[M].北京:解放军出版社,2005.DENG Qian,CHEN Yalin.Historical Curves:24-zigs[M].Beijing:The People's Liberation Army Press,2005.
[4]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Stilwell's Mission to China[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1987:110-210.
[5]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Stilwell's Command Problem[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1987:68-136.
[6]韩继伟.“史迪威公路”的形象标识:晴隆“二十四道拐”盘山公路的形成及作用[J].党史研究与教学,2013(6):101-107..HAN Jiwei.The image of“Stilwell Road”:the formation and effect of“24-zigs”mountain road in Qinglong[J].Party History Research&Teaching,2013(6):101-107.
[7]韩继伟,彭建兵.重启史迪威公路的多视角分析---以贵州晴隆“二十四道拐”为切入点[M].山东:齐鲁书社,2014.HAN Jiwei,PENG Jianbin.A Multi-perspective Analysis of Restoring Stilwell Road:Taking the“24-zigs”in Qinglong County of Guizhou Province as the Breakthrough Point[M].Shandong:Qilu Press,2014.
[8]唐伯明,尚婷,姜志刚,等.二战交通史话---史迪威公路[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2014.TANG Boming,SHANG Ting,JIANG Zhigang,et al.Traffic History of the Second World War:The Stilwell Road[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2014.
[9]张勃,万宇,刘玚,等.黔滇公路二十四道拐的修筑及其历史价值研究[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2016,35(增刊1):79-85.ZHANG Bo,WAN Yu,LIU Yang,et al.Research on the construction and historic values of 24 zigs along Guizhou-Yunnan highway[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science),2016,35(Sup1):79-85.
[10]REAGAN J A.The Interactive Highway Safety Design Model:Designing for Safety by Analyzing Road Geometrics[M].Washington,D.C.:Federal Highway Administration,1995.
[11]BANSEN J,PASSETTI K.Application of the IHSDM:a case study[C]//3rdInternational Symposium on Highway Geometric Design.Chicago:TRB,2005:1221-1225.
[12]MARCHIONNA A,PERCO P,FALCONETTI N.Evaluation of the applicability of IHSDM crash prediction module on Italian two-lane rural roads[J].Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences,2012(53):932-941.
[13]PERCO P,MARCHIONNA A,FALCONETTI N.Application of design consistency evaluation tools for two-lane rural roads:a case study from Italy[C]//Transportation Research Board 90thAnnual Meeting.Washington,D.C.:Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2011.
[14]ITT Corporation.Interactive Highway Safety Design Model Consistency Module Engineer's Manual[S].USA:ITT Corporation,2015.
[15]STILWELL J W.The Stilwell Papers[M].Beijing:Foreign Languages Press,1991.
[16]唐伯明,张勃,尚婷.二战交通史话---国家生命通道[M].北京:人民交通出版社,2017.TANG Boming,ZHANG Bo,SHANG Ting.Traffic History of the Second World War:China's Life Line[M].Beijing:China Communications Press,2017.
[17]ROMANUS C F,SUNDERLAND R.Time Runs out in CBI[M].Washington,D.C.:Center of Military History United States Army,1999:38.
[18]贵州省地方志编纂委员会.贵州省志交通志[M].贵州:贵州人民出版社,1991.Committee for Guizhou Local Chronicles.Guizhou Chronicles Transport Chronicles[M].Guizhou:Guizhou People's Press,1991.
[19]韩继伟.史迪威公路“24道拐”战略解读[J].兰台世界,2012(4):55-56.HAN Jiwei.Strategic Interpretation of Stilwell Road and“24-zigs”[J].Lantai World,2012(4):55-56.
[20]CHUO K,SAITO M.Applicability of the crash prediction module of IHSDM to the selection of candidate locations for safety audits of two-lane rural highway[C]//Proceedings of the 88thTRB Annual Meeting.Washington,D.C.:TRB,2009.