1955—2014年华北地区低层气旋性风切变的变化趋势及成因
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摘要
利用1955—2014年华北地区21站逐月降水观测资料、中国气象局国家气候中心环流指数资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,统计分析近60 a华北地区低层气旋性风切变频次的变化趋势和突变、周期特征,并对其演变成因进行初步探讨。结果表明:近60 a来,华北地区低层气旋性风切变频次呈现显著减少趋势,风切变频次在1967年出现由多到少的明显突变,且在1955—1965年、1992—2000年间存在准3 a的振荡周期,而在1980—1992年间准4 a的振荡周期较显著,这与同期华北地区降水量的变化周期较吻合。华北地区低层气旋性风切变出现明显转折变化的原因主要是大气环流在前一年发生了较为显著的调整。
Based on the monthly precipitation observation data at 21 weather stations in North China, global reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and circulation indexes data from National Climate Center of China from 1955 to 2014, the variation tendency, mutation and periodic characteristics of cyclonic wind shear frequency in low level in North China were analyzed by using the trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods, and the influence factors of cyclonic wind shear were preliminary discussed. Results show that the frequency of low-level cyclonic wind shear in North China decreased significantly during 1955-2014, the mutation of cyclonic wind shear frequency appeared in 1967, and there was quasi-3-year period oscillation during 1955-1965 and 1992-2000, while the 4-year period oscillation was significant during 1980-1992. The mutation and periods characteristics of low level cyclonic wind shear frequency were basically coincide with the precipitation in the same periods in North China. The turning change of low-level cyclonic wind shear was obvious in North China, which was mainly caused by the more significant adjustment of atmospheric circulation in the previous year.
Based on the monthly precipitation observation data at 21 weather stations in North China, global reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and circulation indexes data from National Climate Center of China from 1955 to 2014, the variation tendency, mutation and periodic characteristics of cyclonic wind shear frequency in low level in North China were analyzed by using the trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis methods, and the influence factors of cyclonic wind shear were preliminary discussed. Results show that the frequency of low-level cyclonic wind shear in North China decreased significantly during 1955-2014, the mutation of cyclonic wind shear frequency appeared in 1967, and there was quasi-3-year period oscillation during 1955-1965 and 1992-2000, while the 4-year period oscillation was significant during 1980-1992. The mutation and periods characteristics of low level cyclonic wind shear frequency were basically coincide with the precipitation in the same periods in North China. The turning change of low-level cyclonic wind shear was obvious in North China, which was mainly caused by the more significant adjustment of atmospheric circulation in the previous year.
引文
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[2] 刘美素,孟祥莉.近地面层风切变特征分析[J].内蒙古气象,2006(4):24-25.
[3] 张文龙,崔晓鹏,黄荣.复杂地形下北京雷暴新生地点变化的加密观测研究[J].大气科学,2014,38(5):825-837.
[4] 郑淋淋,孙建华.风切变对中尺度对流系统强度和组织结构影响的数值试验[J].大气科学,2016,40(2):324-340.
[5] 张建军,王咏青,钟玮.飑线组织化过程对环境垂直风切变和水汽的响应[J].大气科学,2016,40(4):689-702.
[6] 张桂莲,常欣,黄晓璐,等.东北冷涡背景下超级单体风暴环境条件与雷达回波特征[J].高原气象,2018,37(5):1364-1374.
[7] LI Q Q,FANG Q X.Buoyancy of convective-scale updrafts in the outer cores of sheared tropical cyclones[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2019,12(1):58-65.
[8] 陶诗言,蔡则怡,丁一汇,等.中国之暴雨[M].北京:气象出版社,1980:1-10.
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[10] 朱乾根,周军.急流切变线暴雨的诊断分析[J].气象,1986,12(6):2-6.
[11] 朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:649.
[12] 程麟生,冯伍虎.“987”突发大暴雨及中尺度低涡结构的分析和数值模拟[J].大气科学,2001,25(4):465-478.
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[14] 郁淑华,高文良,彭骏.近13年青藏高原切变线活动及其对中国降水影响的若干统计[J].高原气象,2013,32(6):1527-1537.
[15] 王志超,王咏青,马鸿青,等.华北中部一次切变线暴雨诊断分析[J].干旱气象,2010,28(4):422-429.
[16] 刘畅,张少林,杨成芳,等.影响山东区域切变线天气特征及大气垂直结构分析[J].气象科技,2015,43(1):108-115.
[17] 马嘉理,姚秀萍.1981—2013年6—7月江淮地区切变线及暴雨统计分析[J].气象学报,2015,73(5):883-894.
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[19] 刘自牧,李国平,张博.高原涡与高原切变线伴随出现的统计特征[J].高原气象,2018,37(5):1233-1240.
[20] 赵桂香,程麟生,李新生.“04.12”华北大到暴雪过程切变线的动力诊断[J].高原气象,2007,26(3):615-623.
[21] 苗爱梅,贾利冬,李苗,等.2009年山西5次横切变暴雨的对比分析[J].气象,2011,37(8):956-967.
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[24] 郝立生,丁一汇.华北降水变化研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2012,31(5):593-601.
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[28] 郝立生,丁一汇,闵锦忠.东亚夏季风变化与华北夏季降水异常的关系[J].高原气象,2016,35(5):1280-1289.
[29] 翟颖佳,李耀辉,施春华.近50年华北区8月降水异常的时空特征及其成因分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(3):787-797.
[30] 吴洪宝,吴蕾.气候变率诊断和预测方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:240-254.
[31] 刘苏峡,邱建秀,莫兴国.华北平原1951年至2006年风速变化特征分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1486-1492.
[32] 牛存稳,张利平,夏军.华北地区降水量的小波分析[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(1):66-70.
[33] 贾丽伟,李维京,陈德亮.东北地区降水与大气环流关系[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(5):557-566.