吉林省商品房库存量分析
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摘要
首先陈述以往商品房库存量的几种计算方法,分析这些方法的优缺点,总结提出更为合理、更能反映实际商品房库存量的计算方法。之后选取房地产企业土地购置面积、人均GDP这2个变量分别作为商品房在供给与需求角度的影响因素,在Eviews8软件上对其进行单位根检验、协整检验,依照检验结果建立了向量误差修正模型,并运用Granger因果检验分析了人均GDP、房地产企业土地购置面积对吉林省商品房库存量的影响。研究结果表明:吉林省房地产企业土地购置面积与商品房库存量存在正相关关系,人均GDP与商品房库存量存在负相关关系。因此应严格把控商品房用地的审批,减少地方政府财政收入对土地收入的依赖,切实提高居民收入,减轻居民购房负担,以减少商品房库存。
Firstly,several calculation methods for the inventory of commercial housing in the past are presented.The advantages and disadvantages of these methods are analyzed.The calculation method which is more reasonable and can reflect the actual inventory of actual commercial housing is summarized.Then,the two variables of land acquisition area and per capita GDP of real estate enterprises are selected as the influencing factors of supply and demand of commodity housing.Unit root test and cointegration test are carried out on Eviews8 software,and vector error correction is established according to the test result.The model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the impact of per capita GDP and land acquisition area of real estate enterprises on the inventory of commercial housing in Jilin Province.The research results show that there is a positive correlation between the land acquisition area of real estate enterprises in Jilin Province and the inventory of commercial housing,and there is a negative correlation between per capita GDP and commodity housing inventory.Therefore,the examination and approval of land for commercial housing should be strictly controlled,the dependence of local government revenue on land income should be reduced,the income of residents should be effectively increased,and the burden of housing purchase should be reduced to reduce the inventory of commercial housing.
Firstly,several calculation methods for the inventory of commercial housing in the past are presented.The advantages and disadvantages of these methods are analyzed.The calculation method which is more reasonable and can reflect the actual inventory of actual commercial housing is summarized.Then,the two variables of land acquisition area and per capita GDP of real estate enterprises are selected as the influencing factors of supply and demand of commodity housing.Unit root test and cointegration test are carried out on Eviews8 software,and vector error correction is established according to the test result.The model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the impact of per capita GDP and land acquisition area of real estate enterprises on the inventory of commercial housing in Jilin Province.The research results show that there is a positive correlation between the land acquisition area of real estate enterprises in Jilin Province and the inventory of commercial housing,and there is a negative correlation between per capita GDP and commodity housing inventory.Therefore,the examination and approval of land for commercial housing should be strictly controlled,the dependence of local government revenue on land income should be reduced,the income of residents should be effectively increased,and the burden of housing purchase should be reduced to reduce the inventory of commercial housing.
引文
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[2]熊曼.供给侧改革视角下三四线城市房地产去库存研究[J].科技经济市场,2017(8):95-97.
[3]张婷敏.供给侧改革下房地产去库存路径分析[J].福建广播电视大学学报,2017(4):28-33.
[4]徐思超,朱道林,李晓亮,等.城市商品房库存界定及其去化周期研究[J].中国国土资源经济,2017,30(7):60-64.
[5]李聃.我国商品房高库存成因及去库存的对策研究[D].南宁:广西大学,2017.
[6]闫玮胜.我国房地产库存及其影响因素实证分析[D].南昌:南昌大学,2017.
[7]张祚,凌旭,周敏,等.商品房去库存压力下的保障性住房建设思考[J].中国房地产,2017(3):38-47.
[8]陈泠璇,刘壮,王瑞瑞,等.供给侧改革背景下三四线城市房地产去库存的探究[J].赤峰学院学报(自然科学版),2017,33(1):63-64.
[9]谢志英,袁骁天,杨洋.三四线城市房地产去库存问题探析[J].四川建材,2016,42(6):164-166.
[10]张翼.房地产实际库存测算方法的比较与优化[J].金融纵横,2016(5):62-68.
[11]靳庭良.Granger因果关系检验应用中的若干问题[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,32(4):149-160.
[12]韩国高.房地产库存对我国房地产市场与经济增长的影响[J].管理现代化,2015,35(1):16-18.
[13]许宪春,贾海,李皎,等.房地产经济对中国国民经济增长的作用研究[J].中国社会科学,2015(1):84-101,204.
[14]郭谦.北京市房地产市场泡沫实证研究[J].特区经济,2013(6):33-36.
[15]吕光明.Granger因果关系检验的模型选择与相关策略研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2013,28(3):3-9.