基于证据理论的多模型事故再现结果融合
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摘要
本研究通过引入证据理论对多个模型结果进行融合,探讨了2种基本概率分配(BPA)的赋值方法,同时给出了模型结果为区间时的融合方案。通过一个真实案例的演示表明,选用第一种BPA赋值方法进行融合时本质上是对模型结果取均值,第二种赋值方法则因引入了专家意见而使融合结果更客观;当结果为区间时融合后的结果虽复杂但可获得更多信息。本研究为科学描述多模型结果提供了解决方案,可为进一步提升再现结果的客观性提供支持。
The evidence theory is introduced in this paper for the fusion of multi-models' results, two methods for evaluating the value of basic probability assignment(BPA) are explored and the fusion scheme when model's results are intervals is given. The demonstration of a real case indicates that when the first value evaluation method for BPA is chosen, the essence of fusion is to average multi-models' results, while the second method can get more objective results of fusion due to the introduction of experts' opinions. When the models' results are intervals, though the results of fusion are complicated but they contain more information. This study provides a solution for the scientific description of multi-models' results, and gives supports for further enhancing the objectivity of reconstruction results.
The evidence theory is introduced in this paper for the fusion of multi-models' results, two methods for evaluating the value of basic probability assignment(BPA) are explored and the fusion scheme when model's results are intervals is given. The demonstration of a real case indicates that when the first value evaluation method for BPA is chosen, the essence of fusion is to average multi-models' results, while the second method can get more objective results of fusion due to the introduction of experts' opinions. When the models' results are intervals, though the results of fusion are complicated but they contain more information. This study provides a solution for the scientific description of multi-models' results, and gives supports for further enhancing the objectivity of reconstruction results.
引文
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[5] PENG Y,YANG J K,DECK C,et al.Development of head injury risk functions based on real-world accident reconstruction[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2014,19(2):105-114.
[6] JEPPSSON H,OSTLING M,LUBBE N.Real life safety benefits of increasing brake deceleration in car-to-pedestrian accidents:simulation of vacuum emergency Braking[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2018,111:311-320.
[7] SHANG S,OTTE D,LI G B,et al.Detailed assessment of pedestrian ground contact injuries observed from in-depth accident data[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2018,110:9-17.
[8] KUBIAK P.Nonlinear approximation method of vehicle velocity Vt and statistical population of experimental cases[J].Forensic Science International,2017,281:147-151.
[9] ZOU T,PENG X,WU W,et al.Methods for analyzing the uncertainty of a reconstructed result in a traffic accident with interval and probabilistic traces[J].Forensic Science International,2017,270:200-210.
[10] ZOU T F,ZHANG Y,YIN R.Two simple formulas for evaluating the lower bound of the impact velocity in vehicle-pedestrian accidents[J].Journal of Forensic Science,2016,61(4):959-965.
[11] ZOU T F,YU Z,CAI M,et al.Analysis and application of relationship between post-braking-distance and throw distance in vehicle-pedestrian accident reconstruction[J].Forensic Science International,2011,207(1-3):135-144.
[12] WOOD D P,ELLIOTT J R,LYONS M,et al.Applications and limitations of wrap-around ratio to vehicle speed estimation in pedestrian collision analysis[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2013,18(3):288-305.
[13] KUBIAK P,MIERZEJEWSKA P,SZOSLAND A.A precise method of vehicle velocity determination based on measurements of car body deformation-non-linear method for the ‘Luxury’ vehicle class[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2018,23(1):100-107.
[14] XU J,LI Y B,LU G Q,et al.Reconstruction model of vehicle impact speed in pedestrian-vehicle accident[J].International Journal of Impact Engineering,2009,36(6):783-788.
[15] GIORDANO C,LI X G,KLEIVEN S.Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction[J].Plos One,2017,12(11):e0187916.
[16] YAO J,YANG J,OTTE D.Investigation of head injuries by reconstructions of real-world vehicle-versus-adult-pedestrian accidents[J].Safety Science,2008,46(7):1103-1114.
[17] WANG X,PENG Y,YI S.Comparative analysis of bicyclists and motorcyclists in vehicle collisions focusing on head responses[J].Proc IMechE Part H:J Engineering in Medicine,2017,231(11):997-1011.
[18] ZHANG W,CAO J E,XU J.How to quantitatively evaluate safety of driver behavior upon accident?A biomechanical methodology[J].Plos One,2017,12(12):e0189455.
[19] ALDIMIROV M,ARNAUDOV R.Method for automated reconstruction of a car's path during crash from GPS/INS data using a Kalman filter[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2018,115:386-390.
[20] CHUNG Y.Injury severity analysis in taxi-pedestrian crashes:an application of reconstructed crash data using a vehicle black box[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2017,111:345-353.
[21] OSMAN M R,TAHAR K N.3D accident reconstruction using low-cost imaging technique[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2016,100:231-237.
[22] HAN I.Optimization analysis in reconstruction of vehicle collision accidents with deficient EDR data[J].Forensic Science International,2018,283:103-110.
[23] 交通研究社.车辆撞树气囊未展开,是否存在质量问题?事故鉴定还原真相[EB/OL].http://jgzx.122.cn/c/2018-03-22/767949.shtml,2018-3-22.
[24] DAVIS G A.A Bayesian approach to cross-validation in pedestrian accident reconstruction[J].SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars-Mechanical Systems,2011,4(1):293-303.
[25] SU S,LIU W J,WANG F P,et al.Comparison of different means to determine postcrash velocity in a real-world vehicle-pedestrian accident[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2014,496-500:3031-3033.
[26] BARTLETT W,WRIGHT W,MASORY O,et al.Evaluating the uncertainty in various measurement tasks common to accident reconstruction[C].SAE Paper 2002-01- 0546.
[27] LYU N,HUANG G,WU C Z et al.Modeling vehicle collision angle in traffic crashes based on three-dimensional laser scanning data[J].Sensors,2017,17(3):10.3390/s17030482.
[28] SU S,LIU W J,LI K,et al.Developing an unmanned aerial vehicle-based rapid mapping system for traffic accident investigation[J].Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences,2016,48(4):454-468.
[29] YUAN Y,XU C,XU T,et al.An analytical model for deformation and damage of rectangular laminated glass under low-velocity impact[J].Composite Structures,2017,176:833-843.
[30] YUAN Q,LI Y,XING S,et al.Correlation between residual speedometer needle reading and impact speed of vehicles in traffic accidents[J].International Journal of Automotive Technology,2015,16(6):1057-1063.
[31] WACH W.Calculation reliability in vehicle accident reconstruction[J].Forensic Science International,2016,263:27-38.
[32] HAN I.Impulse-momentum based analysis of vehicle collision accidents using Monte Carlo simulation methods[J].International Journal of Automotive technology,2015,16(2):253-270.
[33] ZHANG X Y,HU Z,DU X P.Probabilistic inverse simulation and its application in vehicle accident reconstruction[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2013,135(12):121006.1-121006.10.
[34] XU J,SHANG S,QI H S,et al.Simulative investigation on head injuries of electric self-balancing scooter riders subject to ground impact[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2016,89:128-141.
[35] MOSER A,STEFFAN H,HOSCHOPF H,et al.Validation of the PC-crash pedestrian model[C].SAE Paper 2000-01-0847.
[36] DEMPSTER A P.Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multiple valued mapping[J].The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1967,38(2):325-339.
[37] SUN L,WANG Y Z.A multi-attribute fusion approach extending Dempster-Shafer theory for combinatorial-type evidences[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2018,96:218-229.
[38] XIE C Y,LI G J,WEI F Y.An integrated QMU approach to structural reliability assessment based on evidence theory and kriging model with adaptive sampling[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2018,171:112-122.
[39] YIN S W,YU D J,YIN H,et al.A new evidence-theory-based method for response analysis of acoustic system with epistemic uncertainty by using Jacobi expansion[J].Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,2017,322:419-440.
[40] TAO Y R,CAO L,CHENG G Q,et al.Safety analysis of structures with probability and evidence theory[J].International Journal of Steel Structures,2016,16(2):289-298.
[41] YE F,CHEN J,LI Y B.Improvement of DS evidence theory for multi-sensor conflicting information[J].Symmetry-Basel,2017,9(5):1-15.
[42] SUN L,WANG Y Z.A multi-attribute fusion approach extending Dempster-Shafer theory for combinatorial-type evidences[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2018,96:218-229.
[43] 刘雨.汽车—两轮车碰撞事故车速鉴定方法研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2016.
[2] KUNZ S N,GRAW M,ADAMEC J.A proclaimed accidental fall of an infant-an experimental case reconstruction study[J].International Journal of Legal Medicine,2018,132(1):205-210.
[3] MUGGENTHALER H,DROBNIK S,HUBIG M,et al.Fatal abdominal injuries in a bicycle-pedestrian collision-reconstruction using multibody simulation[J].Forensic Science Medicine and Pathology,2017,13(2):230-233.
[4] HAMDANE H,SERRE T,MASSON C,et al.Relevant factors for active pedestrian safety based on 100 real accident reconstructions[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2016,21(1):51-62.
[5] PENG Y,YANG J K,DECK C,et al.Development of head injury risk functions based on real-world accident reconstruction[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2014,19(2):105-114.
[6] JEPPSSON H,OSTLING M,LUBBE N.Real life safety benefits of increasing brake deceleration in car-to-pedestrian accidents:simulation of vacuum emergency Braking[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2018,111:311-320.
[7] SHANG S,OTTE D,LI G B,et al.Detailed assessment of pedestrian ground contact injuries observed from in-depth accident data[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2018,110:9-17.
[8] KUBIAK P.Nonlinear approximation method of vehicle velocity Vt and statistical population of experimental cases[J].Forensic Science International,2017,281:147-151.
[9] ZOU T,PENG X,WU W,et al.Methods for analyzing the uncertainty of a reconstructed result in a traffic accident with interval and probabilistic traces[J].Forensic Science International,2017,270:200-210.
[10] ZOU T F,ZHANG Y,YIN R.Two simple formulas for evaluating the lower bound of the impact velocity in vehicle-pedestrian accidents[J].Journal of Forensic Science,2016,61(4):959-965.
[11] ZOU T F,YU Z,CAI M,et al.Analysis and application of relationship between post-braking-distance and throw distance in vehicle-pedestrian accident reconstruction[J].Forensic Science International,2011,207(1-3):135-144.
[12] WOOD D P,ELLIOTT J R,LYONS M,et al.Applications and limitations of wrap-around ratio to vehicle speed estimation in pedestrian collision analysis[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2013,18(3):288-305.
[13] KUBIAK P,MIERZEJEWSKA P,SZOSLAND A.A precise method of vehicle velocity determination based on measurements of car body deformation-non-linear method for the ‘Luxury’ vehicle class[J].International Journal of Crashworthiness,2018,23(1):100-107.
[14] XU J,LI Y B,LU G Q,et al.Reconstruction model of vehicle impact speed in pedestrian-vehicle accident[J].International Journal of Impact Engineering,2009,36(6):783-788.
[15] GIORDANO C,LI X G,KLEIVEN S.Performances of the PIPER scalable child human body model in accident reconstruction[J].Plos One,2017,12(11):e0187916.
[16] YAO J,YANG J,OTTE D.Investigation of head injuries by reconstructions of real-world vehicle-versus-adult-pedestrian accidents[J].Safety Science,2008,46(7):1103-1114.
[17] WANG X,PENG Y,YI S.Comparative analysis of bicyclists and motorcyclists in vehicle collisions focusing on head responses[J].Proc IMechE Part H:J Engineering in Medicine,2017,231(11):997-1011.
[18] ZHANG W,CAO J E,XU J.How to quantitatively evaluate safety of driver behavior upon accident?A biomechanical methodology[J].Plos One,2017,12(12):e0189455.
[19] ALDIMIROV M,ARNAUDOV R.Method for automated reconstruction of a car's path during crash from GPS/INS data using a Kalman filter[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2018,115:386-390.
[20] CHUNG Y.Injury severity analysis in taxi-pedestrian crashes:an application of reconstructed crash data using a vehicle black box[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2017,111:345-353.
[21] OSMAN M R,TAHAR K N.3D accident reconstruction using low-cost imaging technique[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2016,100:231-237.
[22] HAN I.Optimization analysis in reconstruction of vehicle collision accidents with deficient EDR data[J].Forensic Science International,2018,283:103-110.
[23] 交通研究社.车辆撞树气囊未展开,是否存在质量问题?事故鉴定还原真相[EB/OL].http://jgzx.122.cn/c/2018-03-22/767949.shtml,2018-3-22.
[24] DAVIS G A.A Bayesian approach to cross-validation in pedestrian accident reconstruction[J].SAE International Journal of Passenger Cars-Mechanical Systems,2011,4(1):293-303.
[25] SU S,LIU W J,WANG F P,et al.Comparison of different means to determine postcrash velocity in a real-world vehicle-pedestrian accident[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2014,496-500:3031-3033.
[26] BARTLETT W,WRIGHT W,MASORY O,et al.Evaluating the uncertainty in various measurement tasks common to accident reconstruction[C].SAE Paper 2002-01- 0546.
[27] LYU N,HUANG G,WU C Z et al.Modeling vehicle collision angle in traffic crashes based on three-dimensional laser scanning data[J].Sensors,2017,17(3):10.3390/s17030482.
[28] SU S,LIU W J,LI K,et al.Developing an unmanned aerial vehicle-based rapid mapping system for traffic accident investigation[J].Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences,2016,48(4):454-468.
[29] YUAN Y,XU C,XU T,et al.An analytical model for deformation and damage of rectangular laminated glass under low-velocity impact[J].Composite Structures,2017,176:833-843.
[30] YUAN Q,LI Y,XING S,et al.Correlation between residual speedometer needle reading and impact speed of vehicles in traffic accidents[J].International Journal of Automotive Technology,2015,16(6):1057-1063.
[31] WACH W.Calculation reliability in vehicle accident reconstruction[J].Forensic Science International,2016,263:27-38.
[32] HAN I.Impulse-momentum based analysis of vehicle collision accidents using Monte Carlo simulation methods[J].International Journal of Automotive technology,2015,16(2):253-270.
[33] ZHANG X Y,HU Z,DU X P.Probabilistic inverse simulation and its application in vehicle accident reconstruction[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2013,135(12):121006.1-121006.10.
[34] XU J,SHANG S,QI H S,et al.Simulative investigation on head injuries of electric self-balancing scooter riders subject to ground impact[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2016,89:128-141.
[35] MOSER A,STEFFAN H,HOSCHOPF H,et al.Validation of the PC-crash pedestrian model[C].SAE Paper 2000-01-0847.
[36] DEMPSTER A P.Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multiple valued mapping[J].The Annals of Mathematical Statistics,1967,38(2):325-339.
[37] SUN L,WANG Y Z.A multi-attribute fusion approach extending Dempster-Shafer theory for combinatorial-type evidences[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2018,96:218-229.
[38] XIE C Y,LI G J,WEI F Y.An integrated QMU approach to structural reliability assessment based on evidence theory and kriging model with adaptive sampling[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety,2018,171:112-122.
[39] YIN S W,YU D J,YIN H,et al.A new evidence-theory-based method for response analysis of acoustic system with epistemic uncertainty by using Jacobi expansion[J].Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering,2017,322:419-440.
[40] TAO Y R,CAO L,CHENG G Q,et al.Safety analysis of structures with probability and evidence theory[J].International Journal of Steel Structures,2016,16(2):289-298.
[41] YE F,CHEN J,LI Y B.Improvement of DS evidence theory for multi-sensor conflicting information[J].Symmetry-Basel,2017,9(5):1-15.
[42] SUN L,WANG Y Z.A multi-attribute fusion approach extending Dempster-Shafer theory for combinatorial-type evidences[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2018,96:218-229.
[43] 刘雨.汽车—两轮车碰撞事故车速鉴定方法研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2016.