特朗普时代美国能源政策展望
|
摘要
特朗普反气候变化、振兴油气煤、放缓新能源等政策的实施,旨在追求美国为先、美国利益最大化,但具体政策实施的力度、进度还有待观察。总的判断,特朗普将以相对更为激进的政策手段鼓励发展美国的传统能源产业,美国的新能源发展会有所放缓,但不会改变全球能源低碳清洁化转型的大趋势。特朗普新政将加快美国能源独立进程,减少美国对中东石油的依赖,其世界警察的身份有可能弱化,使得世界地缘政治格局更趋脆弱。美国天然气出口将促进天然气的全球化贸易,促进形成美国、欧洲、亚洲等多元化的天然气定价中心。
The implementations of Trump's energy policies such as disregarding climate change ideas, revitalizing oil, gas and coal industries and slowing down new energy development are all aimed at the pursuit of America first and American benefits maximization.However, the magnitude and progress of the specific policy implementation remains to be seen.In general, Trump will encourage the development of the traditional energy industry with relatively more radical policies.New energy development will be slower but the trend of global low-carbon clean energy transformation will not be changed.Trump's new policy will accelerate the process of American energy independence and reduce the dependence on the oil of Middle East.Also, the world police identity of America may be weakened, making the world geopolitical pattern more fragile.American natural gas exports will promote the globalization of the natural gas trade and contribute to the formation of diversified natural gas pricing center in the United States, Europe, Asia and other areas.
The implementations of Trump's energy policies such as disregarding climate change ideas, revitalizing oil, gas and coal industries and slowing down new energy development are all aimed at the pursuit of America first and American benefits maximization.However, the magnitude and progress of the specific policy implementation remains to be seen.In general, Trump will encourage the development of the traditional energy industry with relatively more radical policies.New energy development will be slower but the trend of global low-carbon clean energy transformation will not be changed.Trump's new policy will accelerate the process of American energy independence and reduce the dependence on the oil of Middle East.Also, the world police identity of America may be weakened, making the world geopolitical pattern more fragile.American natural gas exports will promote the globalization of the natural gas trade and contribute to the formation of diversified natural gas pricing center in the United States, Europe, Asia and other areas.
引文
[1]杨其静.特朗普当选,中国面临巨大挑战[R].中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院政策简报,2016-11-25.
[2]维托·斯泰格利埃诺.美国能源政策:历史、过程与博弈[M].郑世高,等,译.北京:石油工业出版社,2008.
[3]吕其昌.布什与克林顿政策主张比较[J].国际论坛,2001(5):15-18.
[4]Trump's billionaire cabinet could be the wealthiest administration ever[EB/OL].December 2,2016.https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/02/trumps-rich-pickings-president-elects-teamcould-be-wealthiest-ever.
[5]Economy:Donald J.Trump’s Vision[R/OL].https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/economy.
[6]陈文玲,颜少君.2015-2016年世界经济形势分析与展望[J].全球化,2016(1):6-27.
[7]Donald J.Trump Contract with The American Voter[EB/OL].https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trumpdelivers-groundbreaking-contract-for-the-american-vote1.
[8]赵海英.特朗普的能源大棋局[J].财新,2017(1).
[9]Full text:Donald Trump's Detroit speech on his economic plan[EB/OL].August 8,2016.http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/fulltext-donald-trumps-detroit-speech-on-the-ecnomic-plan-226793.
[10]An America First Energy Plan[EB/OL].https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-fi rst-energy.
[11]徐沛宇.特朗普顾问耶金:特朗普上台后,美国的能源战略面临改写[N].第一财经日报,2016-12-15.
[12]张琪.特朗普祭出“颠覆式”能源新政[N].中国能源报,2017-02-06.
[13]Energy Information Agency.Annual Energy Outlook 2017[R/OL].(2017-01-05).http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf.
[14]Trump Touts'Clean Coal'in Second Debate[EB/OL].October 10,2016.https://eos.org/articles/trump-touts-clean-coal-in-seconddebate.
[15]特朗普想改变美国能源转型走向[EB/OL].(2017-01-18).http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20170118/804233.shtml.
[16]冯跃威.特朗普能源新政的真实面[J].能源,2016(12).
(1)最近几年,石油管道成为化石燃料行业与环保主义者之间更广泛斗争的象征。Keystone XL是其中最受争议的一个项目。Keystone XL输油管项目是建设一条将加拿大艾伯塔省生产的重油输送到美国得克萨斯州墨西哥湾地区炼油厂的管道,管道全长约2000千米。奥巴马政府将对该计划的最终裁定推迟了4年,并在2015年巴黎全球气候谈判前夕否决了它。
(2)Dakota Access输油管道全长近1200英里,每天可从北达科他州输送57万桶原油至伊利诺伊州。该项目也引发了长达数月的环保抗议。
[2]维托·斯泰格利埃诺.美国能源政策:历史、过程与博弈[M].郑世高,等,译.北京:石油工业出版社,2008.
[3]吕其昌.布什与克林顿政策主张比较[J].国际论坛,2001(5):15-18.
[4]Trump's billionaire cabinet could be the wealthiest administration ever[EB/OL].December 2,2016.https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/02/trumps-rich-pickings-president-elects-teamcould-be-wealthiest-ever.
[5]Economy:Donald J.Trump’s Vision[R/OL].https://www.donaldjtrump.com/policies/economy.
[6]陈文玲,颜少君.2015-2016年世界经济形势分析与展望[J].全球化,2016(1):6-27.
[7]Donald J.Trump Contract with The American Voter[EB/OL].https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trumpdelivers-groundbreaking-contract-for-the-american-vote1.
[8]赵海英.特朗普的能源大棋局[J].财新,2017(1).
[9]Full text:Donald Trump's Detroit speech on his economic plan[EB/OL].August 8,2016.http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/fulltext-donald-trumps-detroit-speech-on-the-ecnomic-plan-226793.
[10]An America First Energy Plan[EB/OL].https://www.whitehouse.gov/america-fi rst-energy.
[11]徐沛宇.特朗普顾问耶金:特朗普上台后,美国的能源战略面临改写[N].第一财经日报,2016-12-15.
[12]张琪.特朗普祭出“颠覆式”能源新政[N].中国能源报,2017-02-06.
[13]Energy Information Agency.Annual Energy Outlook 2017[R/OL].(2017-01-05).http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf.
[14]Trump Touts'Clean Coal'in Second Debate[EB/OL].October 10,2016.https://eos.org/articles/trump-touts-clean-coal-in-seconddebate.
[15]特朗普想改变美国能源转型走向[EB/OL].(2017-01-18).http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20170118/804233.shtml.
[16]冯跃威.特朗普能源新政的真实面[J].能源,2016(12).
(1)最近几年,石油管道成为化石燃料行业与环保主义者之间更广泛斗争的象征。Keystone XL是其中最受争议的一个项目。Keystone XL输油管项目是建设一条将加拿大艾伯塔省生产的重油输送到美国得克萨斯州墨西哥湾地区炼油厂的管道,管道全长约2000千米。奥巴马政府将对该计划的最终裁定推迟了4年,并在2015年巴黎全球气候谈判前夕否决了它。
(2)Dakota Access输油管道全长近1200英里,每天可从北达科他州输送57万桶原油至伊利诺伊州。该项目也引发了长达数月的环保抗议。