2016年中国油气行业对外投资分析与风险预警
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摘要
2016年,油气行业在再平衡过程中艰难前行。国际油气供需平衡尚需时日,油价、气价持续低位震荡,全球油气上游投资大幅削减。面对低油价形势,各产油国积极调整政策,各国际石油公司纷纷采取应对措施,以摆脱经营业绩大幅下滑的困境。特朗普上任后美国实施能源新政,中国的"一带一路"倡议,均对国际、国内油气市场产生重大影响。本文以2016年全球油气市场的基本情况为基础,结合2016年中国油气企业对外投资情况,对油气行业投资存在的政治风险、经济风险、法律风险、社会风险等进行了综合分析。文章最后依据供需走势及国际形势,对未来中国油气企业对外投资前景做出简要介绍。
In 2016,the oil and gas industry struggled to rebalance.The international oil and gas industry still needs a certain time to achieve a balance between supply and demand,oil prices and gas prices will continue to maintain low prices,and global oil and gas up stream investment has been fallen sharply.Oil producers face a positive adjustment in the form of low oil prices,and international oil companies are responding actively to a slump in operating performance.When Trump took office,the US implemented a new energy policy,and China's construction of "Belt and Road",they all have the influence on the international and domestic oil and gas markets.Based on the fundamental state of the global oil and gas market and the external invest situation of China oil and gas enterprises in 2016,we researched and analyzed the risks of politics,economy,law and society that exist in the oil and gas invest.Finally,according to the trend of supply and demand and the international situation,we made a brief introduction to the future investment prospects of China's oil and gas enterprises.
In 2016,the oil and gas industry struggled to rebalance.The international oil and gas industry still needs a certain time to achieve a balance between supply and demand,oil prices and gas prices will continue to maintain low prices,and global oil and gas up stream investment has been fallen sharply.Oil producers face a positive adjustment in the form of low oil prices,and international oil companies are responding actively to a slump in operating performance.When Trump took office,the US implemented a new energy policy,and China's construction of "Belt and Road",they all have the influence on the international and domestic oil and gas markets.Based on the fundamental state of the global oil and gas market and the external invest situation of China oil and gas enterprises in 2016,we researched and analyzed the risks of politics,economy,law and society that exist in the oil and gas invest.Finally,according to the trend of supply and demand and the international situation,we made a brief introduction to the future investment prospects of China's oil and gas enterprises.
引文
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[2]林晓红.国际大石油公司2016年经营业绩下滑[N].中国石油报,2017-02-28.
[3]IEA.Oil Market Report 2017[EB/OL].https:∥www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/.
[4]常毓文.低油价下全球油气勘探开发新动向[N].中国石油报,2017-02-21.
[5]王震,赵林,张宇擎.特朗普时代美国能源政策展望[J].国际石油经济,2017,25(2):1-8.
[6]刘朝全,姜学峰.2016年国内外油气行业发展概述及2017年展望[J].国际石油经济,2017,25(1):22-31.
[7]孙依敏.“一带一路”油气合作发展的五大转变[N].石油商报,2017-05-10.
[8]张庭婷.特朗普新政助推美国油气业复苏或影响全球油气市场[EB/OL].[2017-01-09].http:∥wenhui.news365.com.cn/html/2017-01/09/content_516213.html.
[9]董秀成.“一带一路”战略背景下中国油气国际合作的机遇、挑战与对策[J].价格理论与实践,2015(4):14-16.
[10]杨雷.一带一路的新思考与新机遇:大国博弈与五通六廊[EB/OL].[2017-08-14].http:∥www.kanshangjie.com/article/102026-1.html.
[11]李润生.新年度新观察新展望——2017年油气行业十大趋势[J].化工管理,2017(1):16-17.
[12]王心馨.误判国际原油大势,中国油企败走加拿大:部分投资血本无归[EB/OL].[2016-01-06].http:∥www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1417558.
[13]李毅.民企海外油气投资进退两难[EB/OL].[2015-12-24].https:∥mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NjAx MjIzNw%3D%3D&idx=1&mid=402985050&sn=cff81e852c35622cba86ce5dcf22b7d7.
[14]姜学峰,徐建山.“一带一路”油气合作环境[M].北京:石油工业出版社,2016.
[15]谢亚宏,青木,倪浩,等.哈萨克斯坦货币极速贬值、中国在哈投资受影响[N].环球时报,2015-08-21.
[16]张媛媛.论中国海外投资问题的法律缺失与影响——兼评海外投资失败的“三大典型案例”[EB/OL].[2011-04-08].http:∥article.chinalawinfo.com/ArticleFullText.aspx?ArticleId=59552&listType=0.
[17]王娜.防范和控制国有石油公司海外直接投资的法律风险[J].国际石油经济,2011,19(4):78-83,112.
[18]许勤华.特朗普访华凸显中国油气市场权[EB/OL].[2017-11-14].http:∥nads.ruc.edu.cn/displaynews.php?id=5311.
[19]高尚涛.中东格局面临新一轮重组[N].解放军报,2017-09-28(008).
[20]侯明扬.油气投资迎来转运年[J].中国石油石化,2017(3):46-49.
[21]方勇.2017年全球主要油气公司上游投资趋势[N].中国海洋石油报,2017-03-24(001).
[22]康煜,陈建荣.2016年世界主要国家油气及相关能源政策[J].国际石油经济,2017,25(2):39-44.