基于TIGGE资料的降雨预报评估——以洪安涧河流域为例
|
摘要
为评价集合降雨预报信息的可利用性,以洪安涧河流域为例,利用TS评分、BS评分、Brier评分以及Talagrand分布图对ECMWF和UKMO两个预报中心2007年5月—2013年4月预见期1～10 d的控制预报及集合平均预报降雨信息进行评估。结果显示:随着预见期的延长、降雨等级的提升,降雨预报的效果逐渐变差;降雨的集合平均预报比控制预报的效果好。进一步对两个预报中心降雨信息的集合平均预报进行精度分析,结果表明,ECMWF和UKMO的降雨预报信息在研究流域有较高的精度,且ECMWF的降雨预报效果优于UKMO。该研究成果表明了TIGGE的降雨预报信息可运用于洪安涧河流域,并可为探索流域内的径流预报及洪水调度等提供科学支持。
In order to evaluate the availability of ensemble rainfall forecast information, this paper took Hong′anjian River basin as an example. The TS score, BS score, Birer score, and Talagrand maps were used to evaluate the control forecast and collective average forecast rainfall information of ECMWF and UKMO in the forecast period from May 2007 to April 2013 lasting for 1-10 days. The results show that with the extension of forecast period and the improvement of rainfall level, the effect of rainfall forecast becomes worse gradually, and the ensemble average forecast is better than the control forecast. Further analysis of the accuracy of the ensemble forecast of the two forecast centers shows that the rainfall forecast information in ECMWF and UKMO has higher accuracy in the study of river basins, and the prediction effect of ECMWF is better than that of UKMO. This study verifies that rainfall forecast information of TIGGE can be applied to the Hong′anjian River Basin, and can provide scientific support for exploring its runoff forecast and flood dispatching.
In order to evaluate the availability of ensemble rainfall forecast information, this paper took Hong′anjian River basin as an example. The TS score, BS score, Birer score, and Talagrand maps were used to evaluate the control forecast and collective average forecast rainfall information of ECMWF and UKMO in the forecast period from May 2007 to April 2013 lasting for 1-10 days. The results show that with the extension of forecast period and the improvement of rainfall level, the effect of rainfall forecast becomes worse gradually, and the ensemble average forecast is better than the control forecast. Further analysis of the accuracy of the ensemble forecast of the two forecast centers shows that the rainfall forecast information in ECMWF and UKMO has higher accuracy in the study of river basins, and the prediction effect of ECMWF is better than that of UKMO. This study verifies that rainfall forecast information of TIGGE can be applied to the Hong′anjian River Basin, and can provide scientific support for exploring its runoff forecast and flood dispatching.
引文
[1] 王国庆,唐雄朋,刘佩瑶,等.山西省岚河流域水文气象要素演变及响应关系[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):67-70,83.
[2] 刘克琳,王宗志,程亮,等.水库防洪错峰调度风险分析方法及应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):43-48.
[3] 彭勇,王萍,徐炜,等.气象集合预报的研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):90-96,126.
[4] ROULIN E.Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions[J].Hydrology & earth system sciences discussions,2006,3(4):725-737.
[5] 孙令东.全球集合预报系统综述[J].科技创新与应用,2018(12):49-50.
[6] 徐静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,等.水文集合预报研究与应用综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(1):82-87.
[7] KOMMA J,RESZLER C,BL?SCHL G,et al.Ensemble prediction of floods-catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities[J].Natural hazards & earth system sciences,2007(7):431-444.
[8] 卢迪,彭勇,徐炜,等.气象集合预报在水文领域中的应用研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(2):116-119,124.
[9] PAPPENBERGER Florian,BARTHOLMES Jens,THIELEN Jutta,et al.New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions[J].Geophysical research letters,2008,35(3):1956-1964.
[10] 包红军,赵琳娜.基于集合预报的淮河流域洪水预报研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(2):216-224.
[11] 彭勇,徐炜,王萍,等.耦合TIGGE降水集合预报的洪水预报[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2015,48(2):177-184.
[12] 油芳芳,彭勇,徐炜,等.ECMWF降雨集合预报在水库优化调度中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(5):27-34.
[13] RASO L,SCHWANENBERG D,GIESEN N C V D,et al.Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts[J].Advances in water resources,2014,71(1):200-208.
[14] 方慈安,潘志祥,叶成志,等.几种流域面雨量计算方法的比较[J].气象,2003,29(7):23-26,42.
[15] BRILL K F,MESINGER F.Applying a general analytic method for assessing bias sensitivity to bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores[J].Weather and forecasting,2009,24(6):1748-1754.
[16] 涂锴.TIGGE降水预报在局地尺度上的检验与订正[C]//中国气象学会.第27届中国气象学会年会灾害天气研究与预报分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会,2010.
[17] 张宏芳,潘留杰,杨新.ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报能力的对比分析[J].气象,2014,40(4):424-432.
[18] 狄靖月,赵琳娜,张国平,等.降水集合预报集成方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(6):691-698.
[19] 王萍.耦合降水集合预报的洪水预报研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2013.
[20] 陈良吕,吴钲,高松.重庆中尺度集合预报系统预报性能分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2017,37(4):21-27.
[21] 油芳芳.耦合ECMWF降雨集合预报的水库优化调度研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2014.
[22] 王丹,王国利,王浩.基于TIGGE资料的清河流域降雨预报信息的可利用性分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):14-17,115.
[23] 王本德,朱永英,张改红,等.应用中央气象台24 h降雨预报的可行性分析[J].水文,2005(3):30-34.
[2] 刘克琳,王宗志,程亮,等.水库防洪错峰调度风险分析方法及应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2016,37(6):43-48.
[3] 彭勇,王萍,徐炜,等.气象集合预报的研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):90-96,126.
[4] ROULIN E.Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions[J].Hydrology & earth system sciences discussions,2006,3(4):725-737.
[5] 孙令东.全球集合预报系统综述[J].科技创新与应用,2018(12):49-50.
[6] 徐静,叶爱中,毛玉娜,等.水文集合预报研究与应用综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(1):82-87.
[7] KOMMA J,RESZLER C,BL?SCHL G,et al.Ensemble prediction of floods-catchment non-linearity and forecast probabilities[J].Natural hazards & earth system sciences,2007(7):431-444.
[8] 卢迪,彭勇,徐炜,等.气象集合预报在水文领域中的应用研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2014,12(2):116-119,124.
[9] PAPPENBERGER Florian,BARTHOLMES Jens,THIELEN Jutta,et al.New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions[J].Geophysical research letters,2008,35(3):1956-1964.
[10] 包红军,赵琳娜.基于集合预报的淮河流域洪水预报研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(2):216-224.
[11] 彭勇,徐炜,王萍,等.耦合TIGGE降水集合预报的洪水预报[J].天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版),2015,48(2):177-184.
[12] 油芳芳,彭勇,徐炜,等.ECMWF降雨集合预报在水库优化调度中的应用研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(5):27-34.
[13] RASO L,SCHWANENBERG D,GIESEN N C V D,et al.Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts[J].Advances in water resources,2014,71(1):200-208.
[14] 方慈安,潘志祥,叶成志,等.几种流域面雨量计算方法的比较[J].气象,2003,29(7):23-26,42.
[15] BRILL K F,MESINGER F.Applying a general analytic method for assessing bias sensitivity to bias-adjusted threat and equitable threat scores[J].Weather and forecasting,2009,24(6):1748-1754.
[16] 涂锴.TIGGE降水预报在局地尺度上的检验与订正[C]//中国气象学会.第27届中国气象学会年会灾害天气研究与预报分会场论文集.北京:中国气象学会,2010.
[17] 张宏芳,潘留杰,杨新.ECMWF、日本高分辨率模式降水预报能力的对比分析[J].气象,2014,40(4):424-432.
[18] 狄靖月,赵琳娜,张国平,等.降水集合预报集成方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(6):691-698.
[19] 王萍.耦合降水集合预报的洪水预报研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2013.
[20] 陈良吕,吴钲,高松.重庆中尺度集合预报系统预报性能分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2017,37(4):21-27.
[21] 油芳芳.耦合ECMWF降雨集合预报的水库优化调度研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2014.
[22] 王丹,王国利,王浩.基于TIGGE资料的清河流域降雨预报信息的可利用性分析[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(8):14-17,115.
[23] 王本德,朱永英,张改红,等.应用中央气象台24 h降雨预报的可行性分析[J].水文,2005(3):30-34.