干旱对太行山山前平原雨养农田产量影响的模拟研究
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摘要
以多时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)作为干旱指标,利用APSIM模型(农业生产系统模拟模型)模拟太行山山前平原雨养旱作农田冬小麦-夏玉米近30 a产量变化,分析干旱对作物产量的影响。结果显示:APSIM模型对模拟雨养条件下作物产量具有良好的适用性,玉米产量年际波动较大、变异系数为51.2%,易受降雨因素影响;小麦产量波动相对较为稳定,变异系数为26.4%。干旱指数与作物产量极显著相关(P<0.01),其中小麦产量与SPEI-3-Apr相关系数达0.79,玉米产量与SPEI-3-Sep相关系数达0.88,适宜干湿状态在0～2之间;所建立的回归方程分别可以解释61.8%的小麦产量变异和87.7%的玉米产量变异。研究表明,SPEI-3-Apr、SPEI-3-Sep可分别作为该地区雨养农田小麦、玉米产量的估计指标。
The drought impacts on crop yield were analyzed through calculating multi-time scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI). APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was used to simulate about thirty-year yield data of winter wheat-summer maize in the double cropping system under rainfed conditions in Piedmont Plain of Mt. Taihang. The results showed that the APSIM model could reliably simulate wheat and maize yield under rainfed conditions. The maize yield was easily affected by rainfall, and yield fluctuation was relatively large with a variation coefficient of 51.2%. The fluctuation of wheat yield was relatively small with a variation coefficient of 26.4%. High correlation between SPEI and crop yield(P<0.01) was observed that the correlation coefficient was 0.79 between wheat yield and SPEI-3-Apr and 0.88 between maize yield and SPEI-3-Sep. The optimum SPEI values were between 0～2. The established regression equations could describe 61.8% and 87.7% of yield variability of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively. This study indicated that SPEI-3-Apr and SPEI-3-Sep could be optimal drought indices to estimate yields of winter wheat and summer maize under rainfed conditions in Piedmont Plain of Mt. Taihang China, respectively.
The drought impacts on crop yield were analyzed through calculating multi-time scale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI). APSIM(Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model was used to simulate about thirty-year yield data of winter wheat-summer maize in the double cropping system under rainfed conditions in Piedmont Plain of Mt. Taihang. The results showed that the APSIM model could reliably simulate wheat and maize yield under rainfed conditions. The maize yield was easily affected by rainfall, and yield fluctuation was relatively large with a variation coefficient of 51.2%. The fluctuation of wheat yield was relatively small with a variation coefficient of 26.4%. High correlation between SPEI and crop yield(P<0.01) was observed that the correlation coefficient was 0.79 between wheat yield and SPEI-3-Apr and 0.88 between maize yield and SPEI-3-Sep. The optimum SPEI values were between 0～2. The established regression equations could describe 61.8% and 87.7% of yield variability of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively. This study indicated that SPEI-3-Apr and SPEI-3-Sep could be optimal drought indices to estimate yields of winter wheat and summer maize under rainfed conditions in Piedmont Plain of Mt. Taihang China, respectively.
引文
[1] 胡春胜,程一松.中国生态系统定位观测与研究数据集·农田生态系统卷·河北栾城站[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2011.
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[10] Yamoah C F,Walters D T,Shapiro C A,et al.Standardized precipitation index and nitrogen rate effects on crop yields and risk distribution in maize.[J].Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment,2000,80(1-2):113-120.
[11] Mkhabela M,Bullock P,Gervais M,et al.Assessing indicators of agricultural drought impacts on spring wheat yield and quality on the Canadian prairies.[J].Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2010,150(3):399-410.
[12] Potop V,Mo?ny M,Soukup J.Drought at various time scales in the lowland regions and their impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic[J].Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2012,156(8):121-133.
[13] 李翔翔,居辉,刘勤,等.基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2054-2066.
[14] Adam N R,Wall G W,Kimball B A,et al.Acclimation response of spring wheat in a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) atmosphere with variable soil nitrogen regimes I.Leaf position and phenology determine acclimation response[J].Photosynthesis Research,2000,66(1-2):65-77.
[15] 房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(6):13-18.
[16] 史印山,王玉珍,池俊成,等.河北平原气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1444-1447.
[17] 林忠辉,莫兴国,项月琴.作物生长模型研究综述[J].作物学报,2003,29(5):750-758.
[18] Pelton W L,King K M,Tanner C B.An evaluation of the Thornthwaite and mean temperature methods for determining potential evapotranspiration.[J].Agronomy Journal,1960,52(7):387-395.
[19] Hosking J R M.L-Moments:analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of Order Statistics[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1990,52(1):105-124.
[20] Alam N M,Sharma G C,Moreira E,et al.Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India[J].Physics & Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C,2017,100:31-43.
[21] Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,et al.An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):267-288.
[22] Sun H,Zhang X,Wang E,et al.Quantifying the impact of irrigation on groundwater reserve and crop production:a case study in the North China Plain[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2015,70(1):48-56.
[23] 张明明,董宝娣,乔匀周,等.播期、播量对旱作小麦‘小偃60’生长发育、产量及水分利用的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(8):1095-1102.
[24] 陈骎骎,张明明,董宝娣,等.‘小偃60’在不同水氮条件下的用水特性[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(10):1253-1259.
[25] 陈素英,张喜英,邵立威,等.华北平原旱地不同熟制作物产量、效益和水分利用比较[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):535-543.
[26] 邵立威,王艳哲,苗文芳,等.品种与密度对华北平原夏玉米产量及水分利用效率的影响[J].华北农学报,2011,26(3):182-188.
[27] 胡梦芸,张正斌,徐萍,等.亏缺灌溉下小麦水分利用效率与光合产物积累运转的相关研究[J].作物学报,2007,33(11):1711-1719.
[28] 孙宏勇,张喜英,陈素英,等.亏缺灌溉对冬小麦生理生态指标的影响及应用[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(5):1086-1090.
[29] Zhang X,Wang Y,Sun H,et al.Optimizing the yield of winter wheat by regulating water consumption during vegetative and reproductive stages under limited water supply[J].Irrigation Science,2013,5(5):1103-1112.
[30] 孙宏勇,张喜英,陈素英,等.气象因子变化对华北平原夏玉米产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(2):215-218.
[31] 张雷,牛建彪,赵凡.旱作玉米提高降水利用率的覆膜模式研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,24(2):8-11.
[32] 梁二,王小彬,蔡典雄,等.不同肥料和N减量施用对旱作玉米生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):371-373.
[33] 明博,陶洪斌,王璞.基于标准化降水蒸散指数研究干旱对北京地区作物产量的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2013,18(5):28-36.
[34] Sadat N S M,Liaghat A M,Ebrahimi K.Prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time scales and climatic factors to manage drought risk[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2012,48(4):1-9.
[2] Chen J Y,Tang C Y,Shen Y J,et al.Use of water balance calculation and tritium to examine the dropdown of groundwater table in the piedmont of the North China Plain (NCP)[J].Environmental Geology,2003,44(5):564-571.
[3] 吴庆华,王贵玲,蔺文静,等.太行山山前平原地下水补给规律分析:以河北栾城为例[J].地质科技情报,2012,31(2):102-108.
[4] 山仑.旱地农业技术发展趋向[J].中国农业科学,2002,35(7):848-855.
[5] 孙宏勇,刘昌明,王振华,等.太行山前平原近40年降水的变化趋势及其对作物生产的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2007,15(6):18-21.
[6] 沈彦军,李红军,雷玉平.干旱指数应用研究综述[J].南水北调与水利科技,2013,11(4):128-133.
[7] Pietzsch S,Bissolli P.A modified drought index for WMO RA VI[J].Advances in Science & Research,2011,6(1):275-279.
[8] Beguería S,Vicente Serrano S M,Reig F,et al.Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) revisited:parameter fitting,evapotranspiration models,tools,datasets and drought monitoring[J].International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(10):3001-3023.
[9] Ming B,Tao H B,Wang P.Impact of drought on grain yield in Beijing investigated by SPEI-based methods[J].Journal of China Agricultural University,2013,18(5):28-36.
[10] Yamoah C F,Walters D T,Shapiro C A,et al.Standardized precipitation index and nitrogen rate effects on crop yields and risk distribution in maize.[J].Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment,2000,80(1-2):113-120.
[11] Mkhabela M,Bullock P,Gervais M,et al.Assessing indicators of agricultural drought impacts on spring wheat yield and quality on the Canadian prairies.[J].Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2010,150(3):399-410.
[12] Potop V,Mo?ny M,Soukup J.Drought at various time scales in the lowland regions and their impact on vegetable crops in the Czech Republic[J].Agricultural & Forest Meteorology,2012,156(8):121-133.
[13] 李翔翔,居辉,刘勤,等.基于SPEI-PM指数的黄淮海平原干旱特征分析[J].生态学报,2017,37(6):2054-2066.
[14] Adam N R,Wall G W,Kimball B A,et al.Acclimation response of spring wheat in a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) atmosphere with variable soil nitrogen regimes I.Leaf position and phenology determine acclimation response[J].Photosynthesis Research,2000,66(1-2):65-77.
[15] 房世波.分离趋势产量和气候产量的方法探讨[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(6):13-18.
[16] 史印山,王玉珍,池俊成,等.河北平原气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1444-1447.
[17] 林忠辉,莫兴国,项月琴.作物生长模型研究综述[J].作物学报,2003,29(5):750-758.
[18] Pelton W L,King K M,Tanner C B.An evaluation of the Thornthwaite and mean temperature methods for determining potential evapotranspiration.[J].Agronomy Journal,1960,52(7):387-395.
[19] Hosking J R M.L-Moments:analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of Order Statistics[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1990,52(1):105-124.
[20] Alam N M,Sharma G C,Moreira E,et al.Evaluation of drought using SPEI drought class transitions and log-linear models for different agro-ecological regions of India[J].Physics & Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C,2017,100:31-43.
[21] Keating B A,Carberry P S,Hammer G L,et al.An overview of APSIM,a model designed for farming systems simulation[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2003,18(3):267-288.
[22] Sun H,Zhang X,Wang E,et al.Quantifying the impact of irrigation on groundwater reserve and crop production:a case study in the North China Plain[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2015,70(1):48-56.
[23] 张明明,董宝娣,乔匀周,等.播期、播量对旱作小麦‘小偃60’生长发育、产量及水分利用的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(8):1095-1102.
[24] 陈骎骎,张明明,董宝娣,等.‘小偃60’在不同水氮条件下的用水特性[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(10):1253-1259.
[25] 陈素英,张喜英,邵立威,等.华北平原旱地不同熟制作物产量、效益和水分利用比较[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(5):535-543.
[26] 邵立威,王艳哲,苗文芳,等.品种与密度对华北平原夏玉米产量及水分利用效率的影响[J].华北农学报,2011,26(3):182-188.
[27] 胡梦芸,张正斌,徐萍,等.亏缺灌溉下小麦水分利用效率与光合产物积累运转的相关研究[J].作物学报,2007,33(11):1711-1719.
[28] 孙宏勇,张喜英,陈素英,等.亏缺灌溉对冬小麦生理生态指标的影响及应用[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(5):1086-1090.
[29] Zhang X,Wang Y,Sun H,et al.Optimizing the yield of winter wheat by regulating water consumption during vegetative and reproductive stages under limited water supply[J].Irrigation Science,2013,5(5):1103-1112.
[30] 孙宏勇,张喜英,陈素英,等.气象因子变化对华北平原夏玉米产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(2):215-218.
[31] 张雷,牛建彪,赵凡.旱作玉米提高降水利用率的覆膜模式研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2006,24(2):8-11.
[32] 梁二,王小彬,蔡典雄,等.不同肥料和N减量施用对旱作玉米生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(4):371-373.
[33] 明博,陶洪斌,王璞.基于标准化降水蒸散指数研究干旱对北京地区作物产量的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2013,18(5):28-36.
[34] Sadat N S M,Liaghat A M,Ebrahimi K.Prediction of crop production using drought indices at different time scales and climatic factors to manage drought risk[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2012,48(4):1-9.