考虑径流成分的雅鲁藏布江月径流模拟
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摘要
通过构建雅鲁藏布江流域分布式水文模型SWAT,并以1989~1998年为率定期,1999~2005年为验证期对3个水文站(奴各沙、羊村、奴下)的月径流进行了模拟。从模型参数组里选取径流成分模拟不同的2组参数,以Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)、相关系数(R~2)及相对误差(PBIAS)为评价指标,来分析模型的模拟结果好坏。结果表明:率定期内,在径流成分1下奴各沙、羊村站和奴下站的R~2值高达0.9以上,NS系数分别为0.9、0.92和0.72,PBIAS的值为7.1%、18.5%及34.2%,但径流成分与实际情况出入较大。而径流成分2下,模拟得到的评价指标虽然不是很高,但径流成分比较合理。验证期总体结论一致。因此,建议在模型率定验证中要充分考虑径流成分的作用,从而提高模型模拟的精度。
The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was built for the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. After calibration(1989-1998) and validation(1999-2005),the monthly runoff was simulated at three hydrological stations(Nugesha,Yangcun,Nuxia). We selected two sets of parameters to analyze the performance of SWAT model through Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NS),determination coefficient( R~2) and relative error(PBIAS).The results show that for Parameter Set 1,R~2 at three stations were as high as 0.9,NS were 0.9,0.92 and 0.72,PBIAS were 7.1%,18.5% and 34.2%respectively during the calibration. However,the simulations of runoff components are unrealistic. For Parameter Set 2,although the evaluation indexes were not very high,its runoff components are reasonable. This is the same case during the validation. Therefore,it is recommended that the simulation skills of runoff components be considered during model calibration and validation.
The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT was built for the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. After calibration(1989-1998) and validation(1999-2005),the monthly runoff was simulated at three hydrological stations(Nugesha,Yangcun,Nuxia). We selected two sets of parameters to analyze the performance of SWAT model through Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NS),determination coefficient( R~2) and relative error(PBIAS).The results show that for Parameter Set 1,R~2 at three stations were as high as 0.9,NS were 0.9,0.92 and 0.72,PBIAS were 7.1%,18.5% and 34.2%respectively during the calibration. However,the simulations of runoff components are unrealistic. For Parameter Set 2,although the evaluation indexes were not very high,its runoff components are reasonable. This is the same case during the validation. Therefore,it is recommended that the simulation skills of runoff components be considered during model calibration and validation.
引文
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[13]刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报,1999,(S1):157-164.(LIU Tianchou.Hydrological characteristics of Yalung Zangbo River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1999,54(S1):157-164.(in Chinese))
[14]孙瑞,张雪芹.基于SWAT模型的流域径流模拟研究进展[J].水文,2010,30(3):28-32.(SUN Rui,ZHANG Xueqin.Progress in application of watershed runoff simulation based on SWAT[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(3):28-32.(in Chinese))
[2]顿珠加措.年楚河流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].人民黄河,2015,(4):33-37.(DUNZHU Jiacuo.Runoff variation of the Nianchu River in Yarlung Tsangpo River basin and its response to climate change[J].Yellow River,2015,(4):33-37.(in Chinese))
[3]Li F,Xu Z,Liu W,et al.The impact of climate change on runoff in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin in the Tibetan Plateau[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2014,28(3):517-526.
[4]罗睿,徐宗学,程磊.SWAT模型在三川河流域的应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2008,19(5):28-33.(LUO Rui,XU Zongxue,CHENG Lei.Application of SWAT Model in the Sanchuan River catchment[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2008,19(5):28-33.(in Chinese))
[5]姚苏红,朱仲元,张圣微,等.基于SWAT模型的内蒙古闪电河流域径流模拟研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(1):175-180.(YAO Suhong,ZHU Zhongyuan,ZHANG Shengwei,et al.Using SWAT model to simulate the discharge of the river Shangdianhe in Inner Mongolia[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(1):175-180.(in Chinese))
[6]Neitsch S L,Arnold J G,Kiniry J R,et al.SWAT theoretical documentation version 2005[J].Blackland Research Center,Temple,TX 2005.
[7]Arnold J G,Srinivasan R,Muttiah R S,et al.Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I:model development[J].Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association,1998,34(1):73–89.
[8]Saxton K,Willey P.The SPAW Model for Agricultural Field and Pond Hydrologic Simulation[M].Watershed Models,2005.
[9]Moriasi D N,Arnold J G,Liew M W V,et al.Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations[J].Transactions of the Asabe,2007,50(3):885-900.
[10]Jin X,Xu C Y,Zhang Q,et al.Parameter and modeling uncertainty simulated by GLUE and a formal Bayesian method for a conceptual hydrological model[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,383(3-4):147-155.
[11]Beven K.A manifesto for the equifinality thesis[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,320(1-2):18-36.
[12]Tian Y,Booij M J,Xu Y P.Uncertainty in high and low flows due to model structure and parameter errors[J].Stochastic Environmental Research&Risk Assessment,2014,28(2):319-332.
[13]刘天仇.雅鲁藏布江水文特征[J].地理学报,1999,(S1):157-164.(LIU Tianchou.Hydrological characteristics of Yalung Zangbo River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1999,54(S1):157-164.(in Chinese))
[14]孙瑞,张雪芹.基于SWAT模型的流域径流模拟研究进展[J].水文,2010,30(3):28-32.(SUN Rui,ZHANG Xueqin.Progress in application of watershed runoff simulation based on SWAT[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(3):28-32.(in Chinese))