摘要
以兰州金城公园二期石头坪景区东侧典型边坡为研究对象,将边坡土体物理力学参数视为随机变量,采用蒙特卡洛随机抽样法及极限平衡法,分析了天然工况和暴雨工况条件下边坡的可靠度指标、失效概率,也分析了边坡安全系数对参数(c,φ,γ)的敏感性。结果表明:暴雨工况边坡可靠度指标明显低于天然工况,失效概率比天然工况明显增大;边坡的安全系数对土体的内摩擦角φ最敏感,粘聚力和重度γ次之,且与土体的内摩擦角φ、粘聚力c呈正相关关系,而与土体重度γ呈负相关关系。综合分析,两种工况边坡均处于稳定状态,适宜景区建设。
Taking the typical eastern side slope of the two stage Stone Ping area of Jincheng Park in Lanzhou as the research object,the physical and mechanical parameters of the slope soil were considered as random variables. The reliability index,failure probability and the safety factor of the slope were analyzed by the Monte Carlo random sampling and the limit equilibrium method; The sensitivity of slope safety factor to parameters( c,φ,γ) was also analyzed. Results showed that the reliability index of the slope was obviously lower than the natural condition,and the failure probability was obviously larger than the natural condition. The safety factor of the slope was most sensitive to the internal friction angleφ of the soil,and the cohesion c and the gravityγ were the second,it was positively correlated with the internal frictionφ angle and cohesion c of the soil,but negatively correlated with the soil gravityγ. Based on the comprehensive analysis,the slope of the two working conditions was in the stable state,and suitable for scenic area construction.
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