上海市金山区2012～2017年恶性肿瘤所致早死概率及其变化趋势分析
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摘要
[目的]分析2012～2017年上海市金山区恶性肿瘤所致早死概率及其变化趋势,为制定肿瘤防控策略提供参考依据。[方法]建立2012～2017年金山区恶性肿瘤死亡数据库,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年龄别死亡率、早死概率和率的年度变化百分比等指标。[结果]2012～2017年金山区恶性肿瘤所致早死概率为6.48%,位居四类主要慢性病所致早死概率的首位。按早死概率排序,2012～2017年金山区男性前5位肿瘤死因分别为肺癌、肝癌、食管癌、胃癌和结直肠癌,早死概率在0.79%～1.96%之间,其中肺癌、肝癌和食管癌早死概率随时间增长呈下降趋势(APC=-4.49%、-8.28%、-16.57%,P<0.05)。同期,金山区女性前5位肿瘤分别是肺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌、胰腺癌和肝癌,早死概率在0.35%～0.88%之间,其中乳腺癌早死概率随时间增长呈下降趋势(APC=-11.12%,P<0.05)。[结论]男性肺癌、肝癌和食管癌,女性肺癌、结直肠癌和乳腺癌分别是导致金山区男性和女性早死概率最高的三类肿瘤,宜针对主要肿瘤致病危险因素和流行特征采取综合性措施进行防控。
[Purpose] To analyze the trend of probability of premature mortality caused by cancer in Shanghai Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. [Methods] The data of malignant tumors from death cause registry system in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017 were collected. Crude death rate,age-standardized death rate by world standard population(ASR world),age-specific death rate,probability of premature mortality and annual percent change(APC) were calculated,respectively.[Results] The probability of premature mortality caused by cancer was 6.48% and ranked the first in four main non-communicable diseases(NCDs) in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. The top five cancers in males sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer,stomach cancer and colorectal cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in males were in the range of 0.79% to 1.96%. The probability of premature mortality caused by lung cancer,liver cancer and esophageal cancer in male decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-4.49%,-8.28%,-16.57%,P<0.05). During the same period the top five cancers in females sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,pancreatic cancer and liver cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in females were in the range of 0.35% to 0.88%. The probability of premature mortality caused by breast cancer in females decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-11.12%,P<0.05).[Conclusion] In Jinshan district lung cancer,liver cancer and esophageal cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in males and lung cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in females.
[Purpose] To analyze the trend of probability of premature mortality caused by cancer in Shanghai Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. [Methods] The data of malignant tumors from death cause registry system in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017 were collected. Crude death rate,age-standardized death rate by world standard population(ASR world),age-specific death rate,probability of premature mortality and annual percent change(APC) were calculated,respectively.[Results] The probability of premature mortality caused by cancer was 6.48% and ranked the first in four main non-communicable diseases(NCDs) in Jinshan District from 2012 to 2017. The top five cancers in males sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer,liver cancer,esophageal cancer,stomach cancer and colorectal cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in males were in the range of 0.79% to 1.96%. The probability of premature mortality caused by lung cancer,liver cancer and esophageal cancer in male decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-4.49%,-8.28%,-16.57%,P<0.05). During the same period the top five cancers in females sorted by probability of premature mortality were lung cancer,colorectal cancer,breast cancer,pancreatic cancer and liver cancer and the probabilities of premature mortality of top five cancers in females were in the range of 0.35% to 0.88%. The probability of premature mortality caused by breast cancer in females decreased from 2012 to 2017(APC=-11.12%,P<0.05).[Conclusion] In Jinshan district lung cancer,liver cancer and esophageal cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in males and lung cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer are the top three cancers which lead to the highest probabilities of premature mortality in females.
引文
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[19]Liu XX,Yu CH,Zhou W,et al.Trends in colorectal cancer mortality for the last 30 years in China[J].China Oncology,2018,28(3):177-183.[刘晓雪,宇传华,周薇,等.中国近30年间结直肠癌死亡趋势分析[J].中国癌症杂志,2018,28(3):177-183.]
[20]Zheng Y,Gong YM,Zhou XW,et al.From community practice to public health policy-planning and implementation of Shanghai colorectal cancer screening program[J].Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine,2017,29(2):89-91.[郑莹,龚杨明,周晓伟,等.从社区实践到公共卫生政策---“上海社区居民大肠癌筛查”项目的规划和实施[J].上海预防医学,2017,29(2):89-91.]
[2]Zeng XY,Li YC,Liu SW,et al.Subnational analysis of probability of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in China during 1990-2015and“Health China 2030”reduction target[J].Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine,2017,51(3):209-214.[曾新颖,李镒冲,刘世炜,等.1990-2015年中国四类慢性病早死概率与“健康中国2030”下降目标分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2017,51(3):209-214.]
[3]Peking Union Medical College Hospital&WHO Disease Classification Cooperation Center.International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems(10th revision)[M].Version 2.Beijing:People’s Medical Publishing House,2008.146-173.[北京协和医院世界卫生组织疾病分类合作中心编译.疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类(第十次修订本)[M].第2版.北京:人民卫生出版社,2008.146-173.]
[4]Xiang YB,Zhang W,Gao LF,et al.Methods for time trend analysis of cancer incidence rates[J].Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,2004,25(2):173-177.[项永兵,张薇,高立峰,等.恶性肿瘤发病率的时间趋势分析方法[J].中华流行病学杂志,2004,25(2):173-177.]
[5]Zhu XY,Gao X.An analysis of underreporting survey of death cases in Jinshan District of Shanghai,2012[J].Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases,2014,22(5):634-637.[朱晓云,高霞.上海市金山区2012年死亡监测报告漏报调查[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2014,22(5):634-637.]
[6]Ding XB,Tang WG,Jiao Y,et al.The premature death rate and trend change of four major non-communicable diseases in Chongqing City from 2010 to 2016[J].Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases,2017,25(9):641-645.[丁贤彬,唐文革,焦艳,等.2010-2016年重庆市4种主要慢性病早死率及其变化趋势[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,2017,25(9):641-645.]
[7]Liu ZC,Hu L.Probability of premature mortality caused by chronic non-communicable diseases in Xinwu District,Wuxi City(2012-2016)[J].Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine,2018,29(1):116-118.[刘增超,胡磊.2012-2016年无锡市新吴区慢性非传染性疾病早死概率研究[J].公共卫生与预防医学,2018,29(1):116-118.]
[8]Wang HM,Wang CL,Feng W,et al.Premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in Fenghua District[J].Preventive Medicine,2018,30(2):134-138.[王海明,王春丽,冯伟.奉化区主要慢性非传染性疾病早死概率分析[J].预防医学,2018,30(2):134-138.]
[9]Chen WQ,Sun KX,Zheng RS,et al.Report of cancer incidence and mortality in different areas of China,2014[J].China Cancer,2018,27(1):1-14.[陈万青,孙可欣,郑荣寿,等.2014年中国分地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(1):1-14.]
[10]Chen WQ,Zheng RS,Zhang SW,et al.Report of cancer incidence and mortality in China,2013[J].China Cancer,2017,26(1):1-7.[陈万青,郑荣寿,张思维,等.2013年中国恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(1):1-7.]
[11]Bao PP,Gong YM,Peng P,et al.Analysis of cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai,2014[J].China Oncology,2018,28(3):161-176.[鲍萍萍,龚杨明,彭鹏,等.2014年上海市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡特征分析[J].中国癌症杂志,2018,28(3):161-176.]
[12]Zhou WW,Zheng RS,Deng Y,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality in Sichuan cancer registries,2013[J].China Cancer,2018,27(7):489-496.[周薇薇,郑荣寿,邓颖,等.2013年四川省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(7):489-496.]
[13]Zhang M,Tuo JY,Li GC,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality in Hubei cancer registries,2013[J].Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment,2018,45(6):414-419.[张敏,庹吉妤,李广灿,等.2013年湖北省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病与死亡分析[J].肿瘤防治研究,2018,45(6):414-419.]
[14]Liu YQ,Li WY,Zhu YT,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality in Gansu cancer registries,2013[J].China Cancer,2018,27(4):246-255.[刘玉琴,李文英,朱奕潼,等.2013年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区恶性肿瘤发病与死亡分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(4):246-255.]
[15]Li HS,Pan PH,Liu XG,et al.Incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Hunan cancer registration areas,2013[J].China Cancer,2018,27(3):174-180.[黎皓思,潘频华,刘湘国,等.2013年湖南省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病与死亡特征[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(3):174-180.]
[16]Han RQ,Wu M,Luo PF,et al.Cancer incidence and mortality in Jiangsu Province,2014[J].Journal of Cancer Control and Treatment,2018,31(1):24-31.[韩仁强,武鸣,罗鹏飞,等.2014年江苏省恶性肿瘤发病和死亡分析[J].肿瘤预防与治疗,2018,31(1):24-31.]
[17]McDonnell KK,Strayer SM,Sercy E,et al.Developing and testing a brief clinic-based lung cancer screening decision aid for primary care settings[J].Health Expectations,2018,21(4):796-804.
[18]Zhu XY,Xiong YR,Chen L,et al.Time trend of cancer incidence in Jinshan District of Shanghai,2002~2013[J].China Cancer,2017,26(9):696-701.[朱晓云,熊伊然,陈磊,等.上海市金山区2002~2013年恶性肿瘤发病时间趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(9):696-701.]
[19]Liu XX,Yu CH,Zhou W,et al.Trends in colorectal cancer mortality for the last 30 years in China[J].China Oncology,2018,28(3):177-183.[刘晓雪,宇传华,周薇,等.中国近30年间结直肠癌死亡趋势分析[J].中国癌症杂志,2018,28(3):177-183.]
[20]Zheng Y,Gong YM,Zhou XW,et al.From community practice to public health policy-planning and implementation of Shanghai colorectal cancer screening program[J].Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine,2017,29(2):89-91.[郑莹,龚杨明,周晓伟,等.从社区实践到公共卫生政策---“上海社区居民大肠癌筛查”项目的规划和实施[J].上海预防医学,2017,29(2):89-91.]