雅砻江与川江洪水地区组成及遭遇规律分析
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摘要
为合理运用雅砻江及金沙江中下游梯级水库群防洪库容,减轻防护对象防洪压力,采用雅砻江控制站小得石站、川江河段代表站李庄站、寸滩站1959~2016年实测资料,分析了雅砻江与川江洪水地区组成及遭遇规律。研究结果表明:小得石站、李庄站、寸滩站年最大洪峰一般出现在6~10月,其中7~9月出现几率达到95%;当李庄站、寸滩站发生年最大3,7,15 d洪水时,小得石站相应出现大洪水的概率随历时增加而变大;川江李庄站洪水组成中,小得石站、攀枝花站两站洪量占李庄的比重相当且随洪水历时增长而变大;川江寸滩站洪水组成中,雅砻江小得石站洪水比重接近面积比,金沙江屏山站洪水比重小于面积比。
In order to make rational use of flood storage capacity of cascade reservoirs on the Yalong River and the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River,and reduce the flood control pressure,on the basis of the observed data at Xiaodeshi Station,Lizhuang Station and Cuntan Station from 1959 to 2016,the flood region composition and encounter law for the Yalong River and the Chuanjiang River were analyzed. The results showed that the flood peak at Xiaodeshi Station,Li Zhuang Station and Cuntan Station generally appears during June to October,in which the appearing probability during July to September is 95%. When the maximum annual 3 d,7 d and 15 d floods occurred at Lizhuang Station and Cuntan Station,the occurrence probability of the corresponding flood at Xiaodeshi Station increased with the flood duration. In the flood composition at Lizhuang Station on Chuanjiang River,the flood volume at Xiaodeshi Station and Panzhihua Station account for the same proportion of the flood at Lizhuang Station,and all increase with the flood duration. In the flood composition of Chuanjiang River,the flood proportion of Xiaodeshi Station on Yalong River is close to area ratio,while the proportion of Pingshan Station on the Jinsha River is smaller than its area ratio.
In order to make rational use of flood storage capacity of cascade reservoirs on the Yalong River and the middle and lower reaches of the Jinsha River,and reduce the flood control pressure,on the basis of the observed data at Xiaodeshi Station,Lizhuang Station and Cuntan Station from 1959 to 2016,the flood region composition and encounter law for the Yalong River and the Chuanjiang River were analyzed. The results showed that the flood peak at Xiaodeshi Station,Li Zhuang Station and Cuntan Station generally appears during June to October,in which the appearing probability during July to September is 95%. When the maximum annual 3 d,7 d and 15 d floods occurred at Lizhuang Station and Cuntan Station,the occurrence probability of the corresponding flood at Xiaodeshi Station increased with the flood duration. In the flood composition at Lizhuang Station on Chuanjiang River,the flood volume at Xiaodeshi Station and Panzhihua Station account for the same proportion of the flood at Lizhuang Station,and all increase with the flood duration. In the flood composition of Chuanjiang River,the flood proportion of Xiaodeshi Station on Yalong River is close to area ratio,while the proportion of Pingshan Station on the Jinsha River is smaller than its area ratio.
引文
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