基于贝叶斯网的公路路侧事故风险评价
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摘要
为了根据路侧危险情况采取针对性的措施,急需开展公路路侧事故风险评价研究.基于事故模拟再现分析,根据车辆驶入路侧后的事故形态,将路侧事故严重程度划分为4个等级,对不同等级路侧事故的致因因素进行研究,给出驶入车速、边坡坡度与边坡高度阈值.构建了路侧事故风险评价的贝叶斯网,基于路侧事故致因因素阈值,针对单因素、双因素与三因素分别给出了不同等级路侧事故发生概率的计算方法.选取典型路侧事故案例进行分析,贝叶斯网的计算结果显示发生2次及以下翻车事故的概率为0.929,与路侧事故模拟试验结果相符,证明了本文提出的公路路侧事故风险评价方法的准确性.
It is necessary to take targeted measures according to roadside dangerous conditions. Therefore, it is urgent to study roadside accident risk evaluation. Based on accident simulation analysis, roadside accident severity was divided into four grades. Thresholds of driving speed, grade and height of side slope were given according to study on different roadside accident severity contributing factors. Bayesian network of roadside accident risk assessment was constructed. Based on thresholds of roadside accident contributing factors, calculation methods corresponding to single-factor, two-factor and three-factor were presented for probability of different roadside accidents severity. Lastly, case analysis was carried out by selecting typical roadside accident. Bayesian network calculating results show that the probability of no more than two turnovers is 0.929 and it is in conformity with accident simulation results, which proves the accuracy of the method.
It is necessary to take targeted measures according to roadside dangerous conditions. Therefore, it is urgent to study roadside accident risk evaluation. Based on accident simulation analysis, roadside accident severity was divided into four grades. Thresholds of driving speed, grade and height of side slope were given according to study on different roadside accident severity contributing factors. Bayesian network of roadside accident risk assessment was constructed. Based on thresholds of roadside accident contributing factors, calculation methods corresponding to single-factor, two-factor and three-factor were presented for probability of different roadside accidents severity. Lastly, case analysis was carried out by selecting typical roadside accident. Bayesian network calculating results show that the probability of no more than two turnovers is 0.929 and it is in conformity with accident simulation results, which proves the accuracy of the method.
引文
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[7]郑恒,李长城,刘煜.基于贝叶斯网络的路侧安全评价方法[J].公路交通科技, 2008, 25(2):139-154.[ZHENG H, LI C C, LIU Y. A Roadside safety assessment method based on bayesian network[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2008, 25(2):139-154.]
[8]李杨,马荣国,王龙飞,等.公路路侧安全等级评价与分级路侧防护[J].安全与环境学报, 2009, 9(4):143-146.[LI Y, MA R G, WANG L G, et al. Roadside accident hazard assessment and on-guard protection gradation[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2009, 9(4):143-146.]
[9]张铁军,唐琤琤,宋楠,等.山区双车道公路路侧危险度对安全影响的分析研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2008, 6(2):43-50.[ZHANG T J, TANG C C, SONG N, et al. Analysis between roadside hazard degree and safety for two-lane highway in mountainous area[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2008, 6(2):43-50.]
[2] JALAYER M, ZHOU H. Evaluating the safety risk of roadside features for rural two-lane roads using reliability analysis[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2016(93):101-112.
[3] SHANKAR V, MANNERING F. An exploratory multinomial Logit analysis of single-vehicle motorcycle accident severity[J]. Journal of Safety Research, 1996,27(3):183-194.
[4] MAK K K, SICKING D L. Roadside Safety Analysis Program(RSAP):Engineer's manual[R]. Washingtong DC:Transportation Research Board, 2003.
[5] ROQUE C, CARDOSO J L. SAFESIDE:A computeraided procedure for integrating benefits and costs in roadside safety intervention decision making[J]. Safety Science, 2015, 74(4):195-205.
[6]高海龙,等.公路路侧安全设计指南[M].北京:人民交通出版社, 2008.[GAO H L, et al. Roadside safety design guide[M]. Beijing:China Communications Press.2008.]
[7]郑恒,李长城,刘煜.基于贝叶斯网络的路侧安全评价方法[J].公路交通科技, 2008, 25(2):139-154.[ZHENG H, LI C C, LIU Y. A Roadside safety assessment method based on bayesian network[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2008, 25(2):139-154.]
[8]李杨,马荣国,王龙飞,等.公路路侧安全等级评价与分级路侧防护[J].安全与环境学报, 2009, 9(4):143-146.[LI Y, MA R G, WANG L G, et al. Roadside accident hazard assessment and on-guard protection gradation[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2009, 9(4):143-146.]
[9]张铁军,唐琤琤,宋楠,等.山区双车道公路路侧危险度对安全影响的分析研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2008, 6(2):43-50.[ZHANG T J, TANG C C, SONG N, et al. Analysis between roadside hazard degree and safety for two-lane highway in mountainous area[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information,2008, 6(2):43-50.]