江苏省城市土地利用效益时空演变及驱动力研究
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摘要
研究目的:探究江苏省13地市2001—2016年土地利用效益的时空演变规律及空间相关性,并在此基础上分析其效益驱动力,为今后土地的高效利用和优化配置提供借鉴与参考。研究方法:熵权TOPSIS模型,ESDA空间相关性分析,热点分析,Tobit模型。研究结果:(1)2001—2016年江苏省土地利用综合效益由0.299稳步提升到0.669,经历了"平稳—加速—平稳"的过程,实现了"低级—中级—良好"的梯度跨越;(2)各市土地利用效益"高—高""低—低"空间集聚显著,地区间差距大,出现了新一轮苏南城市圈效益热点区并逐步扩大,冷点区域已经消失;(3)经济发展水平、资金投入、城镇化、产业结构、科技创新、环保治理是提升区域土地利用效益的关键因素。研究结论:未来应进一步调整产业结构,加强科技创新,大力倡导发展绿色循环经济,重视生态效益;同时采取苏南、苏北城市定向帮扶措施,缩小地区差距。
The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial and temporal evolution regularity and spatial correlation of land use benefits in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2016, based on which the driving forces of benefits are analyzed, so as to provide reference for the efficient use and optimal allocation of land in the future. The methods employed include the entropy weight TOPSIS model, ESDA spatial correlation analysis, hot-spot analysis and Tobit model. The results show that: 1)the comprehensive benefit of land use in Jiangsu Province steadily increased from 0.299 to 0.669 and experienced a "smooth-acceleration-smooth" process, with a gradient of "low-medium-good". 2)The phenomenon of "high-high" and "low-low" agglomeration of land use benefits in each city is significant, and the regional development gap is large. A new round of hot spots in southern Jiangsu economic circle appeared and gradually expanded,while the cold spots disappeared. 3)Economic development level, capital investment, urbanization, industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation and investment in environmental protection management are the key factors to promote the benefits of regional land use. In the future, the industrial structure should be further adjusted, scientific and technological innovation should be strengthened, green recycling economy should be vigorously advocated, and ecological benefit should be emphasized. At the same time, the targeted assistance measures in southern and northern Jiangsu cities should be adopted to narrow the regional gap.
The purpose of the study is to explore the spatial and temporal evolution regularity and spatial correlation of land use benefits in 13 cities of Jiangsu Province from 2001 to 2016, based on which the driving forces of benefits are analyzed, so as to provide reference for the efficient use and optimal allocation of land in the future. The methods employed include the entropy weight TOPSIS model, ESDA spatial correlation analysis, hot-spot analysis and Tobit model. The results show that: 1)the comprehensive benefit of land use in Jiangsu Province steadily increased from 0.299 to 0.669 and experienced a "smooth-acceleration-smooth" process, with a gradient of "low-medium-good". 2)The phenomenon of "high-high" and "low-low" agglomeration of land use benefits in each city is significant, and the regional development gap is large. A new round of hot spots in southern Jiangsu economic circle appeared and gradually expanded,while the cold spots disappeared. 3)Economic development level, capital investment, urbanization, industrial structure,scientific and technological innovation and investment in environmental protection management are the key factors to promote the benefits of regional land use. In the future, the industrial structure should be further adjusted, scientific and technological innovation should be strengthened, green recycling economy should be vigorously advocated, and ecological benefit should be emphasized. At the same time, the targeted assistance measures in southern and northern Jiangsu cities should be adopted to narrow the regional gap.
引文
[1]李灿,张凤荣,朱泰峰,等.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的土地利用绩效评价及关联分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(5):217-227.
[2]李永乐,舒帮荣,吴群.中国城市土地利用效率:时空特征、地区差距与影响因素[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):133-139.
[3]雷勋平,ROBIN QIU,刘勇.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):243-253.
[4]WALTER CHRISTOF, ST TZEL HARTMUT. A new methodforassessingthesustainabilityofland-use systems(I):identifying the relevant issues[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 68(5):1275-1287.
[5]VAN NIEKERK A. A comparison of land unit delineation techniques for land evaluation in the Western Cape, South Africa[J]. Land Use Policy, 2011, 27(3):937-945.
[6]曹堪宏,朱宏伟.基于耦合关系的土地利用效益评价——以广州和深圳为例[J].中国农村经济,2010(8):58-66,79.
[7]王国刚,刘彦随,方方.环渤海地区土地利用效益综合测度及空间分异[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(4):649-656.
[8]张荣天,焦华富.转型期省际城镇土地利用绩效格局演变与机理[J].地理研究,2014,33(12):2251-2262.
[9]杨俊,王占岐,金贵,等.基于AHP与模糊综合评价的土地整治项目实施后效益评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1036-1042.
[10]韩璐,谢俊奇.小波神经网络在土地利用效益分析中的应用——以兰州市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):153-157.
[11]朱传军,卢新海,韩长生.基于模糊积分的开发区土地经济效益评价[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(5):53-58.
[12]刘畅,师学义,梁旭琴,等.基于物元模型的资源型城市土地利用效益动态评价研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,22(4):122-126,131.
[13]陈士银,周飞,吴雪彪.基于绩效模型的区域土地利用可持续性评价[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(6):249-253.
[14]AKINCI HALIL, OZALP AYSE YAVUZ, TURGUT BULENT.Agricultural land use suitability analysis using GIS and AHP technique[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2013, 97(9):71-82.
[15]KAZEMI HOSSEIN, AKINCI H. A land use suitability model for rainfed farming by Multi-criteria Decision-making Analysis(MCDA)and Geographic Information System(GIS)[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2018, 116(6):1-6.
[16]LI J, LEWIS J, ROWLAND J, et al. Evaluation of land performance in Senegal using multi-temporal NDVI and rainfall series[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2004, 59(3):463-480.
[17]张光宏,马艳.城郊土地利用社会经济效益和生态环境效益的动态耦合关系——以武汉市远城区为例[J].农业技术经济,2014, 33(11):14-20.
[18]孔雪松,刘艳芳,谭传凤.嘉鱼县土地利用结构与效益变化的耦合效应分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1095-1101.
[19]许珊,刘艳芳,彭明军,等.宁波市城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子分析[J].地理信息世界,2017,24(3):49-54.
[20]王晶,齐伟,王鑫,等.基于生态服务能力的土地利用景观空间绩效评价方法[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(增刊2):32-35.
[21]毕国华,杨庆媛.中国土地利用效益的时空特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(6):97-103.
[22]曾琼,孟全省.自然资源净资产视角下的生态绩效评价——以陕南生态功能区为例[J].农村经济,2017,35(8):85-90.
[23]范柏乃,张电电,张晓玲,等.县市级政府土地利用和管理绩效评估指标体系研究——基于土地督察的视角[J].中国土地科学,2014,28(9):25-31.
[24]杨丽霞,夏浩,苑韶峰.基于耦合协调度的土地利用经济效益空间差异分析——以浙江省为例[J].中国土地科学,2016,29(11):83-88.
[25]班茂盛,方创琳,刘晓丽,等.北京高新技术产业区土地利用绩效综合评价[J].地理学报,2008,63(2):175-184.
[26]吴一洲,吴次芳,罗文斌,等.浙江省城市土地利用绩效的空间格局及其机理研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(10):41-46.
[27]江苏省统计局.江苏统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2002—2017.
[28]崔许锋,张光宏,徐成,等.经济发达地区土地利用绩效评价及其改进路径探讨——以江苏省为例[J].农业经济问题,2017,38(12):81-88.
[29]朱珠,张琳,叶晓雯,等.基于TOPSIS方法的土地利用综合效益评价[J].经济地理,2012,32(10):139-144.
[30]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断——以重庆市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):535-541.
[31]刘婧鸣,侯现慧,王占岐,等.耕地细碎化与耕地集约利用水平空间相关特征研究——以湖北省为例[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(12):51-59.
[32]苑韶峰,朱从谋,李胜男.基于格网尺度的杭州城西产业集聚区土地利用格局变化及热点分析[J].上海国土资源,2018,39(1):44-49.
[33]张荣天,焦华富.长江经济带城市土地利用效率格局演变及驱动机制研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(3):387-394.
[2]李永乐,舒帮荣,吴群.中国城市土地利用效率:时空特征、地区差距与影响因素[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):133-139.
[3]雷勋平,ROBIN QIU,刘勇.基于熵权TOPSIS模型的区域土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断[J].农业工程学报,2016,32(13):243-253.
[4]WALTER CHRISTOF, ST TZEL HARTMUT. A new methodforassessingthesustainabilityofland-use systems(I):identifying the relevant issues[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 68(5):1275-1287.
[5]VAN NIEKERK A. A comparison of land unit delineation techniques for land evaluation in the Western Cape, South Africa[J]. Land Use Policy, 2011, 27(3):937-945.
[6]曹堪宏,朱宏伟.基于耦合关系的土地利用效益评价——以广州和深圳为例[J].中国农村经济,2010(8):58-66,79.
[7]王国刚,刘彦随,方方.环渤海地区土地利用效益综合测度及空间分异[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(4):649-656.
[8]张荣天,焦华富.转型期省际城镇土地利用绩效格局演变与机理[J].地理研究,2014,33(12):2251-2262.
[9]杨俊,王占岐,金贵,等.基于AHP与模糊综合评价的土地整治项目实施后效益评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(8):1036-1042.
[10]韩璐,谢俊奇.小波神经网络在土地利用效益分析中的应用——以兰州市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(1):153-157.
[11]朱传军,卢新海,韩长生.基于模糊积分的开发区土地经济效益评价[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(5):53-58.
[12]刘畅,师学义,梁旭琴,等.基于物元模型的资源型城市土地利用效益动态评价研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,22(4):122-126,131.
[13]陈士银,周飞,吴雪彪.基于绩效模型的区域土地利用可持续性评价[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(6):249-253.
[14]AKINCI HALIL, OZALP AYSE YAVUZ, TURGUT BULENT.Agricultural land use suitability analysis using GIS and AHP technique[J]. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture,2013, 97(9):71-82.
[15]KAZEMI HOSSEIN, AKINCI H. A land use suitability model for rainfed farming by Multi-criteria Decision-making Analysis(MCDA)and Geographic Information System(GIS)[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2018, 116(6):1-6.
[16]LI J, LEWIS J, ROWLAND J, et al. Evaluation of land performance in Senegal using multi-temporal NDVI and rainfall series[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2004, 59(3):463-480.
[17]张光宏,马艳.城郊土地利用社会经济效益和生态环境效益的动态耦合关系——以武汉市远城区为例[J].农业技术经济,2014, 33(11):14-20.
[18]孔雪松,刘艳芳,谭传凤.嘉鱼县土地利用结构与效益变化的耦合效应分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(7):1095-1101.
[19]许珊,刘艳芳,彭明军,等.宁波市城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子分析[J].地理信息世界,2017,24(3):49-54.
[20]王晶,齐伟,王鑫,等.基于生态服务能力的土地利用景观空间绩效评价方法[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(增刊2):32-35.
[21]毕国华,杨庆媛.中国土地利用效益的时空特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(6):97-103.
[22]曾琼,孟全省.自然资源净资产视角下的生态绩效评价——以陕南生态功能区为例[J].农村经济,2017,35(8):85-90.
[23]范柏乃,张电电,张晓玲,等.县市级政府土地利用和管理绩效评估指标体系研究——基于土地督察的视角[J].中国土地科学,2014,28(9):25-31.
[24]杨丽霞,夏浩,苑韶峰.基于耦合协调度的土地利用经济效益空间差异分析——以浙江省为例[J].中国土地科学,2016,29(11):83-88.
[25]班茂盛,方创琳,刘晓丽,等.北京高新技术产业区土地利用绩效综合评价[J].地理学报,2008,63(2):175-184.
[26]吴一洲,吴次芳,罗文斌,等.浙江省城市土地利用绩效的空间格局及其机理研究[J].中国土地科学,2009,23(10):41-46.
[27]江苏省统计局.江苏统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2002—2017.
[28]崔许锋,张光宏,徐成,等.经济发达地区土地利用绩效评价及其改进路径探讨——以江苏省为例[J].农业经济问题,2017,38(12):81-88.
[29]朱珠,张琳,叶晓雯,等.基于TOPSIS方法的土地利用综合效益评价[J].经济地理,2012,32(10):139-144.
[30]鲁春阳,文枫,杨庆媛,等.基于改进TOPSIS法的城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍因子诊断——以重庆市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):535-541.
[31]刘婧鸣,侯现慧,王占岐,等.耕地细碎化与耕地集约利用水平空间相关特征研究——以湖北省为例[J].中国土地科学,2017,31(12):51-59.
[32]苑韶峰,朱从谋,李胜男.基于格网尺度的杭州城西产业集聚区土地利用格局变化及热点分析[J].上海国土资源,2018,39(1):44-49.
[33]张荣天,焦华富.长江经济带城市土地利用效率格局演变及驱动机制研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(3):387-394.