基于Weibull分布的牵引变电所保护系统寿命预测
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摘要
针对牵引变电所保护系统检修时科学依据不足的问题,根据检修需求,提出了一种新的基于两参数Weibull分布的保护设备寿命预测方法。该方法在分析保护设备历史信息以及当前运行状态的基础上,充分考虑保护设备存在隐藏故障的情况,建立继电器隐藏故障阶段性恒定失效率的Markov模型以及互感器隐藏故障诊断模型,在此基础上构建牵引变电所保护系统的寿命预测数学模型。基于某区域牵引变电所的实际运行状态和结构特点,运用该寿命预测数学模型得到牵引变电所保护系统的剩余寿命曲线,表明保护系统运行于早期故障期,对比实际运行情况,验证了该方法的正确性和有效性,为牵引变电所保护设备的状态检修提供了一定的理论依据。
Aiming at the problem of insufficient scientific basis of maintenance in the traction substation protection system, according to the requirements of maintenance, a new life prediction method of protection equipment based on a two-parameter Weibull distribution is proposed. The main steps are as follows: Firstly, the historical information of relay protection equipment and the current running state are analyzed. The existence of hidden fault protection equipment is fully considered. Secondly, the Markov models of the constant failure rate of relay in hidden fault phase and transformer fault diagnosis model are established. Then the life prediction mathematical model of traction substation protection system is built. Based on the actual running conditions and the characteristics of the structure of the traction substation in certain areas, the residual life curve of traction substation protection system can be obtained with the mathematical model, which shows that the protection system malfunction is in early stage. Compared to the actual running state, the correctness and effectiveness of the method can be proved, which can provide a certain theoretical basis of condition-based maintenance for the traction substation electrical equipment.
Aiming at the problem of insufficient scientific basis of maintenance in the traction substation protection system, according to the requirements of maintenance, a new life prediction method of protection equipment based on a two-parameter Weibull distribution is proposed. The main steps are as follows: Firstly, the historical information of relay protection equipment and the current running state are analyzed. The existence of hidden fault protection equipment is fully considered. Secondly, the Markov models of the constant failure rate of relay in hidden fault phase and transformer fault diagnosis model are established. Then the life prediction mathematical model of traction substation protection system is built. Based on the actual running conditions and the characteristics of the structure of the traction substation in certain areas, the residual life curve of traction substation protection system can be obtained with the mathematical model, which shows that the protection system malfunction is in early stage. Compared to the actual running state, the correctness and effectiveness of the method can be proved, which can provide a certain theoretical basis of condition-based maintenance for the traction substation electrical equipment.
引文
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[18]张毓格.牵引变电所二次设备在线诊断及预警[D].成都:西南交通大学,2013:15-35.ZHANG Yuge.Online diagnosis and early warning for hidden failury of traction substation secondary devices[D].Chengdu,China:Southwest Jiaotong University,2013:15-35.
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[20]邓鑫洋,邓勇,章雅娟,等.一种信度马尔科夫模型及应用[J].自动化学报,2012,38(4):666-672.DENG Xinyang,DENG Yong,ZHANG Yajuan,et al.A belief Markov model and its application[J].Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(4):666-672.
[21]周玉兰,王玉玲,赵曼勇.2004年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况[J].电网技术,2005,29(16):42-48.ZHOU Yulan,WANG Yuling,ZHAO Manyong.Statistics operation situation of protective relayings and automation devices of power systems in China in 2004[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(16):42-48.
[22]沈晓凡,程逍,章激扬.2005年全国电网继电保护装置运行情况分析[J].电力设备,2007,8(2):26-29.SHEN Xiaofan,CHENG Xiao,ZHANG Jiyang.Operation condition and analysis of protective relaying in 2005[J].Electrical Equipment,2007,8(2):26-29.
[23]林飞,罗君,李志锋.2003、2004年全国电力牵引供电系统故障统计分析[J].甘肃科技纵横,2006,35(3):27-28.LIN Fei,LUO Jun,LI Zhifeng.Fault analysis of the national electric traction power supply system in 2003 and 2004[J].Scienfic&Technical Information of Gansu,2006,35(3):27-28.
[2]Teng X L,Pham H,Jeske D R.Reliability modeling of handware and software interactions,and it applications[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2006,55(4):571-577.
[3]薛安成,罗麟,景琦,等.继电保护装置的多因素时变Markov模型及其检修策略分析[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):123-129.XUE Ancheng,LUO Lin,JING Qi,et al.Research on the maintence strategies of protection relay based on time-varying Markov model including multi-factors[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):123-129.
[4]Etemadi A H,Firuzabad M F.New considerations in modern protection system quantitative reliability assessment[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2010,25(4):2213-2222.
[5]戴志辉,王增平.继电保护可靠性研究综述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(15):161-167.DAI Zhihui,WANG Zengping.Overview of research on protection reliability[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(15):161-167.
[6]Park J,Kim H J,Shin J H,et al.An embedded software reliability model with consideration of hardware related software failures[C]∥IEEE 6th International Conference on Software Security and Reliability.Washington D C,USA:IEEE,2012:20-22.
[7]高亚娴.基于Weibull分布的电力设备寿命损耗预测[J].现在电子技术,2009,34(18):139-141.GAO Yaxian.Life estimation electric equipment based on Weibull distribution[J].Modern Electronics Technique,2009,34(18):139-141.
[8]陆俭国,王景芹.低压保护电器可靠性理论及其应用[M].2版.北京:机械工业出版社,2004:45-167.LU Jianguo,WANG Jingqin.Theory and application of reliability of low voltage protection electric[M].2nd ed.Beijing,China:Mechanical Industry Press,2004:45-167.
[9]郑涛,王方,金乃正.双重化继电保护系统确定最佳检修周期方法[J].电力系统自动化,2010,34(10):67-70.ZHENG Tao,WANG Fang,JIN Naizheng.A novel algorithm of detwrmining the optimal routine test interval of the dualredundant relay protection system[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2010,34(10):67-70.
[10]张小鸣,赵国柱,王秋阳.双机继电保护装置可靠性的影响因素[J].常州大学学报:自然科学版,2011,23(2):50-54.ZHANG Xiaoming,ZHAO Guozhu,WANG Qiuyang.Simulation study on optimum self-test and routine rest period of relay protection[J].Journal of Changzhou University:Natural Science Edition,2011,23(2):50-54.
[11]吴杰余,张哲,尹项根,等.电气二次设备状态检修研究[J].继电器,2002,30(2):22-24.WU Jieyu,ZHANG Zhe,YIN Xianggen,et al.Study on condition-based maintenance of electrical secondary equipment[J].Relay,2002,30(2):22-24.
[12]杜林,李欣,司马文霞,等.110 kV变电站过电压在线监测系统及其波形分析[J].高电压技术,2012,38(3):535-543.DU Lin,LI Xin,SIMA Weixia,et al.Overvoltage on-line monitoring system for 110 kV substation and its waveforms analysis[J].High Voltage Engineering,2012,38(3):535-543.
[13]周丹,李成榕,王忠东.变压器Weibull寿命建模参数估计方法的比较[J].高电压技术,2013,39(5):1170-1177.ZHOU Dan,LI Chengrong,WANG Zhongdong.Comparison of parameter estimation methods for transformer Weibull lifetime modeling[J].High Voltage Engineering,2013,39(5):1170-1177.
[14]李永丽,李致中,杨维.继电保护装置可靠性及其最佳检修周期的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(6):63-71.LI Yongli,LI Zhizhong,YANG Wei.Study of reliability and optimal routine test interval of protective relays[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(6):63-71.
[15]吴宏斌,盛继光.继电保护设备可靠性评估的数学模型及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(9):65-68.WU Hongbin,SHENG Jiguang.Mathematical model and its application of relaying protection device reliability assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2009,37(9):65-68.
[16]薛安成,王睿琛,刘蔚,等.继电保护装置恒定失效率估算方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(4):6-10.XUE Ancheng,WANG Ruichen,LIU Wei,et al.Estimation methods for constant failure rate of protection equipment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(4):6-10.
[17]徐岩,白静.一种基于威布尔分布的继电保护装置可靠性分析的新方法[J].华北电力大学学报,2012,39(4):15-19.XU Yan,BAI Jing.A new method for protective relay reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution[J].Journal of China Electric Power University,2012,39(4):15-19.
[18]张毓格.牵引变电所二次设备在线诊断及预警[D].成都:西南交通大学,2013:15-35.ZHANG Yuge.Online diagnosis and early warning for hidden failury of traction substation secondary devices[D].Chengdu,China:Southwest Jiaotong University,2013:15-35.
[19]Zhang J,Ding M.Research on hidden failure reliability modeling of electric power system protection[J].Energy and Power Engineering,2013,5(4B):1337-1382.
[20]邓鑫洋,邓勇,章雅娟,等.一种信度马尔科夫模型及应用[J].自动化学报,2012,38(4):666-672.DENG Xinyang,DENG Yong,ZHANG Yajuan,et al.A belief Markov model and its application[J].Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(4):666-672.
[21]周玉兰,王玉玲,赵曼勇.2004年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况[J].电网技术,2005,29(16):42-48.ZHOU Yulan,WANG Yuling,ZHAO Manyong.Statistics operation situation of protective relayings and automation devices of power systems in China in 2004[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(16):42-48.
[22]沈晓凡,程逍,章激扬.2005年全国电网继电保护装置运行情况分析[J].电力设备,2007,8(2):26-29.SHEN Xiaofan,CHENG Xiao,ZHANG Jiyang.Operation condition and analysis of protective relaying in 2005[J].Electrical Equipment,2007,8(2):26-29.
[23]林飞,罗君,李志锋.2003、2004年全国电力牵引供电系统故障统计分析[J].甘肃科技纵横,2006,35(3):27-28.LIN Fei,LUO Jun,LI Zhifeng.Fault analysis of the national electric traction power supply system in 2003 and 2004[J].Scienfic&Technical Information of Gansu,2006,35(3):27-28.