技术创新与产业结构转型的地区经济增长效应——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证分析
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摘要
选取2006-2016年中国内地30个省(市、区)数据,构建动态空间杜宾模型并结合中介效应模型,研究技术创新影响经济增长的直接效应,以及产业结构转型对经济增长的间接效应。研究结果发现:我国经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应;经济增长具有动态、积极的正向连续性特征。在直接效应方面,本地区技术创新对经济增长呈显著正向影响,而周边地区技术创新呈显著负向影响;产业结构合理化对经济增长呈显著负向影响,产业结构高级化呈显著正向影响;技术创新与产业结构转型融合缓解了产业结构合理化对经济增长的抑制程度,提升了产业结构高级化对经济的促进效果。在间接效应方面,产业结构转型是技术创新与经济增长的中间传导环节,产业结构合理化与产业结构高级化均为正向中介效应。本地区技术创新对经济增长的直接效应大于间接效应,周边技术创新对经济增长的直接效应小于间接效应。
In this paper, the data of 30 provinces(municipalities and districts) in China from 2006 to 2016 are selected to construct the dynamic spatial Doberbin model and the intermediary effect model. This paper studies the direct effect of technological innovation on economic growth and its indirect effect on economic growth by promoting the transformation of industrial structure. The research results show that: there are positive spatial spillover effects in China's economic growth, and the process of economic growth has dynamic and positive continuous characteristics. In the direct effects, the technological innovation in this region has positive effects on economic growth, but the technological innovation in the surrounding areas has a significant negative impact. The rationalization of industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the economic growth, but the advanced industrial structure has a significant positive impact. The combination of technological innovation and industrial structural transformation alleviates the degree of inhibition of the rationalization of industrial structure to economic growth. In the indirect effect, the transformation of industrial structure is the intermediate transmission link between technological innovation and economic growth, and the rationalization of industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure both have positive intermediary effects. The direct effect of technological innovation in this region on the economic growth is greater than the indirect effect, but the direct effect of peripheral technological innovation on economic growth is smaller than indirect effect.
In this paper, the data of 30 provinces(municipalities and districts) in China from 2006 to 2016 are selected to construct the dynamic spatial Doberbin model and the intermediary effect model. This paper studies the direct effect of technological innovation on economic growth and its indirect effect on economic growth by promoting the transformation of industrial structure. The research results show that: there are positive spatial spillover effects in China's economic growth, and the process of economic growth has dynamic and positive continuous characteristics. In the direct effects, the technological innovation in this region has positive effects on economic growth, but the technological innovation in the surrounding areas has a significant negative impact. The rationalization of industrial structure has a significant negative impact on the economic growth, but the advanced industrial structure has a significant positive impact. The combination of technological innovation and industrial structural transformation alleviates the degree of inhibition of the rationalization of industrial structure to economic growth. In the indirect effect, the transformation of industrial structure is the intermediate transmission link between technological innovation and economic growth, and the rationalization of industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure both have positive intermediary effects. The direct effect of technological innovation in this region on the economic growth is greater than the indirect effect, but the direct effect of peripheral technological innovation on economic growth is smaller than indirect effect.
引文
[1] 林春艳, 孔凡超. 技术创新、模仿创新及技术引进与产业结构转型升级——基于动态空间Durbin模型的研究[J]. 宏观经济研究, 2016 (5): 106-118.
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[3] 傅元海,叶祥松,王展祥.制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率提高[J]. 经济研究, 2016, 51(8): 86-100.
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[7] 程郁, 陈雪. 创新驱动的经济增长——高新区全要素生产率增长的分解[J]. 中国软科学, 2013(11): 26-39.
[8] ADAK M. Technological progress, innovation and economic growth:the case of Turkey [J]. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015, 195:776-782.
[9] BUJARI A A, FRANCISCO V M. Technological innovation and economic growth in Latin America [J]. Journal of Economics and Finance, 2016, 11(2):77-89.
[10] 徐幼民, 徐达实. 论技术创新驱动经济发展的加速效应——兼论发展中国家中等收入陷阱产生的原因[J]. 财经理论与实践, 2017,38 (6): 99-104.
[11] 马述忠, 李嫣君, 吴国杰. 基于空间自相关的中国技术类创新资源流动影响因素分析[J].经济学家, 2015(11): 15-25.
[12] FEKI C, MNIF S. Entrepreneurship, technological innovation, and economic growth: empirical analysis of Panel Data[J]. Journal of the Knowledge Economy,2016,7(4):984-999.
[13] 陈佳贵, 黄群慧. 工业发展、国情变化与经济现代化战略——中国成为工业大国的国情分析[J]. 中国社会科学, 2005(4): 4-16.
[14] 渠慎宁, 吕铁. 产业结构升级意味着服务业更重要吗——论工业与服务业互动发展对中国经济增长的影响[J]. 财贸经济, 2016(3):138-147.
[15] 赵欣. 技术创新能力、产业结构升级对经济增长的影响研究[J]. 特区经济, 2016(9): 84-87.
[16] 蔡跃洲, 付一夫. 全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解[J]. 经济研究, 2017, 52(1): 72-88.
[17] 韩晶, 酒二科. 以产业结构为中介的创新影响中国经济增长的机理[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2018(6):51-63.
[18] FEDER G. On exports and economic growth[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1983, 12(1): 59-73.
[19] 于斌斌. 产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J]. 中国工业经济, 2015(12): 83-98.
[20] 李成刚, 杨兵. 数量型规则和价格型规则的最优组合研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析[J]. 金融经济学研究, 2018(2): 25-36.
[21] 李真. 技术模仿、转移与创新的贸易利益效应研究——来自中国工业企业的证据[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2011, 28(4): 18-33.
[22] 谢兰云. 中国省域R&D投入对经济增长作用途径的空间计量分析[J]. 中国软科学, 2013(9): 37-47.
[23] 干春晖, 郑若谷, 余典范. 中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2011, 46(5): 4-16.
[24] 邵汉华, LIU YAOBIN. 金融结构与经济增长的非线性门槛效应:基于最优金融结构的视角[J]. 审计与经济研究, 2018, 33(3): 119-127.
[25] ELHORST J P. Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences[J]. Journal of Geographical System,2012,14(1): 5-28.
[26] 崔庆安, 王文坡, 张水娟. 金融深化、产业结构升级与技术创新——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2018, 37(2): 42-50.
[27] 李婧, 谭清美, 白俊红. 中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J]. 管理世界, 2010(7): 43-55.
[2] 苏治, 徐淑丹. 中国技术进步与经济增长收敛性测度——基于创新与效率的视角[J]. 中国社会科学, 2015 (7): 4-25.
[3] 傅元海,叶祥松,王展祥.制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率提高[J]. 经济研究, 2016, 51(8): 86-100.
[4] 李翔, 邓峰. 中国产业结构优化对经济增长的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2017, 36(2): 3-9.
[5] COOPER R N. New perspectives on economic growth and technological innovation[J]. Brookings Institution:Council on Foreign Relations, 1999 , 78 (6) :981-982.
[6] KOH W T H. Terrorism and its impact on economic growth and technological innovation[J]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2007, 74(2):129-138.
[7] 程郁, 陈雪. 创新驱动的经济增长——高新区全要素生产率增长的分解[J]. 中国软科学, 2013(11): 26-39.
[8] ADAK M. Technological progress, innovation and economic growth:the case of Turkey [J]. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2015, 195:776-782.
[9] BUJARI A A, FRANCISCO V M. Technological innovation and economic growth in Latin America [J]. Journal of Economics and Finance, 2016, 11(2):77-89.
[10] 徐幼民, 徐达实. 论技术创新驱动经济发展的加速效应——兼论发展中国家中等收入陷阱产生的原因[J]. 财经理论与实践, 2017,38 (6): 99-104.
[11] 马述忠, 李嫣君, 吴国杰. 基于空间自相关的中国技术类创新资源流动影响因素分析[J].经济学家, 2015(11): 15-25.
[12] FEKI C, MNIF S. Entrepreneurship, technological innovation, and economic growth: empirical analysis of Panel Data[J]. Journal of the Knowledge Economy,2016,7(4):984-999.
[13] 陈佳贵, 黄群慧. 工业发展、国情变化与经济现代化战略——中国成为工业大国的国情分析[J]. 中国社会科学, 2005(4): 4-16.
[14] 渠慎宁, 吕铁. 产业结构升级意味着服务业更重要吗——论工业与服务业互动发展对中国经济增长的影响[J]. 财贸经济, 2016(3):138-147.
[15] 赵欣. 技术创新能力、产业结构升级对经济增长的影响研究[J]. 特区经济, 2016(9): 84-87.
[16] 蔡跃洲, 付一夫. 全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解[J]. 经济研究, 2017, 52(1): 72-88.
[17] 韩晶, 酒二科. 以产业结构为中介的创新影响中国经济增长的机理[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2018(6):51-63.
[18] FEDER G. On exports and economic growth[J]. Journal of Development Economics, 1983, 12(1): 59-73.
[19] 于斌斌. 产业结构调整与生产率提升的经济增长效应——基于中国城市动态空间面板模型的分析[J]. 中国工业经济, 2015(12): 83-98.
[20] 李成刚, 杨兵. 数量型规则和价格型规则的最优组合研究——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析[J]. 金融经济学研究, 2018(2): 25-36.
[21] 李真. 技术模仿、转移与创新的贸易利益效应研究——来自中国工业企业的证据[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2011, 28(4): 18-33.
[22] 谢兰云. 中国省域R&D投入对经济增长作用途径的空间计量分析[J]. 中国软科学, 2013(9): 37-47.
[23] 干春晖, 郑若谷, 余典范. 中国产业结构变迁对经济增长和波动的影响[J]. 经济研究, 2011, 46(5): 4-16.
[24] 邵汉华, LIU YAOBIN. 金融结构与经济增长的非线性门槛效应:基于最优金融结构的视角[J]. 审计与经济研究, 2018, 33(3): 119-127.
[25] ELHORST J P. Dynamic spatial panels: models, methods, and inferences[J]. Journal of Geographical System,2012,14(1): 5-28.
[26] 崔庆安, 王文坡, 张水娟. 金融深化、产业结构升级与技术创新——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2018, 37(2): 42-50.
[27] 李婧, 谭清美, 白俊红. 中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J]. 管理世界, 2010(7): 43-55.