基于生态足迹分析的泰顺县可持续发展状况研究
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摘要
文章基于泰顺县2011—2015年统计年鉴数据测算该县这5年来人均生态足迹,同时预测该县2020年生态足迹及生态承载力以对其可持续发展状况进行评价。结果表明:(1)泰顺县2011—2015年总人均生态足迹介于0.318 3～0.392 4 hm2/cap,整体呈现"先增后减再增"的变化趋势,耕地和草地是人均生态足迹的最大组成部分;(2)2020年泰顺县预测总人均生态足迹为0.441 1 hm2/cap,2016—2020年总人均生态足迹呈现"持续增长"的变化趋势,草地对人均生态足迹贡献量最大且持续增长,耕地贡献量逐渐降低,化石能源用地贡献量逐渐增大;(3)2020年泰顺县表现为生态盈余,人均生态盈余指数为0.179 6 hm2/cap。泰顺县社会经济压力对于生态环境的冲击力较小,土地利用仍能维持当地可持续发展。
Our research calculated the ecological footprint of Taishun among 2011 and 2015 based on the data of Taishun's statistical yearbook 2011-2015.Also we predicted the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity in 2020 to evaluate the sustainable development of the county.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint during 2011-2015 was between 0.318 3 hm2/cap and 0.392 4 hm2/cap in which the arable land and the pasture cost the largest proportion,and the per capita ecological footprint showed a trend of increasing first,then decreasing and finally increasing.The per capita ecological footprint in 2020 was 0.441 1 hm2/cap,and the per capita ecological footprint among 2016 and 2020 showed a trend of increasing in which the pasture cost most and kept increasing while the contribution of arable land decreased and the fossil energy land increased.The per capita ecological surplus index was 0.179 6 hm2/cap in 2020 which meant the ecological environment was stable and the land use structure fit the development of the society and economy.
Our research calculated the ecological footprint of Taishun among 2011 and 2015 based on the data of Taishun's statistical yearbook 2011-2015.Also we predicted the ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity in 2020 to evaluate the sustainable development of the county.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint during 2011-2015 was between 0.318 3 hm2/cap and 0.392 4 hm2/cap in which the arable land and the pasture cost the largest proportion,and the per capita ecological footprint showed a trend of increasing first,then decreasing and finally increasing.The per capita ecological footprint in 2020 was 0.441 1 hm2/cap,and the per capita ecological footprint among 2016 and 2020 showed a trend of increasing in which the pasture cost most and kept increasing while the contribution of arable land decreased and the fossil energy land increased.The per capita ecological surplus index was 0.179 6 hm2/cap in 2020 which meant the ecological environment was stable and the land use structure fit the development of the society and economy.
引文
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[2]刘东,封志明,杨艳昭.基于生态足迹的中国生态承载力供需平衡分析[J].自然资源学报,2012(4):614-624.
[3]王琦,易桂花,张廷斌,等.基于生态足迹模型的四川省耕地资源评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018(1):80-87.
[4]Wackernagel M,Rees W E.Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in natural capital:Economics from an ecological footprint perspective[J].Ecological Economics,1997,20(1):3-24.
[5]Rees W E.Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:What urban economics leaves out[J].Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.
[6]Wackernagel M,Rees W E.Our ecological footprint:Reducing human impact on the earth[M].Philadelphia:New Society Publishers,1996.
[7]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.甘肃省1998年生态足迹计算与分析[J].地理学报,2000(5):607-616.
[8]熊娜娜,谢世友.成都市水资源生态足迹及承载力时空演变研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018(6):124-131.
[9]江平平,陈银蓉,张苗.低碳概念下武汉市生态足迹的动态分析与预测[J].水土保持研究,2015(1):247-251.
[10]马维兢,刘斌,杨德伟,等.基于生态足迹模型的流域生态承载力时空演变研究[J].环境科学与技术,2018(1):163-171.
[11]夏惠萍.中国进出口贸易生态足迹的测度与分析[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.
[12]周丽萍,戚瑞生,冯进军.2002-2015年临夏州耕地生态足迹动态研究[J].中国农学通报,2018(2):35-41.
[13]岳东霞,李自珍,惠苍.甘肃省生态足迹和生态承载力发展趋势研究[J].西北植物学报,2004(3):454-463.
[14]WWF.Living planet report 2016[M].Gland:World Wide Fund for Nature,2016.
[15]G?ssling S,Hansson C B,H?rstmeierc O,et al.Ecological footprint analysis as a tool to assess tourism sustainability[J]Ecological Economics,2002,43(2-3):199-211.
[16]杨屹,加涛.21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化[J].生态学报,2015(24):7987-7997.
[17]Wackernagel M,Onisto L,Bello P,et al.National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):375-390.
[18]李桃桃,耿红,赵筱青.基于生态足迹的孟连县土地利用结构优化研究[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2018(3):205-209.
[19]R Core Team.R:A language and environment for statistical computing[M].Vienna:R Foundation for Statistical Computing2018.
[20]世界自然基金会,中国环境与发展国际合作委员会.地球生命力报告·中国2015[EB/OL].[2018-06-10].http://www wwfchina.org/content/press/publication/2015/地球生命力报告·中国2015.pdf.
[21]张芳,徐伟锋,李光明,等.上海市2003年生态足迹与生态承载力分析[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2006(1):80-84.
[22]郭秀锐,杨居荣,毛显强.城市生态足迹计算与分析--以广州为例[J].地理研究,2003(5):654-662.