气象干旱指数在东北春玉米干旱监测中的改进
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摘要
利用土壤相对湿度数据和县级春玉米单产数据,在气象干旱指数SWAP(standardized weighted average of precipitation)的基础上,研究我国东北地区春玉米受干旱影响的界限指标,结果表明:SWAP在春玉米播种-出苗期低于-0.9,出苗-拔节期低于-1.0,拔节-抽穗期低于-1.2,抽穗-乳熟期低于-0.7时,土壤相对湿度偏低,即气象干旱一般为中旱时,不利于春玉米生长。以此构建春玉米干旱指数,对比我国东北地区春玉米干旱指数与省级农作物干旱受灾面积的关系,发现两者相关关系显著,尤其在典型干旱年份,两者对应关系更好,说明构建的东北地区春玉米干旱指数能够较好地反映干旱对春玉米的实际影响。利用东北地区县级春玉米单产数据对春玉米干旱指数进行等级划分,划分结果可为东北地区春玉米防旱减灾和安全生产提供参考。
Drought is the main disaster which influences spring maize over Northeast China, and spring maize yields are often affected by large regional and sustainable drought seriously. The decreasing effects can be described with meteorological drought index or agriculture drought index. Using the soil relative moisture data and county spring maize yield, as well as meteorological drought index SWAP(standardized weighted average of precipitation),a new spring maize drought index(I_(MD)) is proposed, which can reflect the decreasing maize yield induced by drought. Using soil moisture data, the spring maize drought limit is firstly researched based on SWAP. Results show in different stages of spring maze growth, SWAP thresholds are different, which are -0.9 for sowing and seeding stage, -1.0 for seeding and elongating stage,-1.2 for elongating and flowering stage, and -0.7 for flowering and maturity of spring maize. In other words, the growth of spring maize can be influenced when SWAP is moderate drought. A new spring maize drought index is researched based SWAP and SWAP limits. And results also show there is a good relationship between spring maize drought index and the provincial crop area affected by drought, especially in drought years. The coefficient between spring maize drought index and the provincial crop area affected by drought is 0.69 in Liaoning, and 0.73 in Jilin, as well as 0.64 in Heilongjiang, which indicates the new spring maize drought index can indicate actual maize drought. Finally, the classification of drought is divided using the county spring maize yields. The drought grades are defined according to the corresponding decrease of spring maize yield, light drought for(3 %, 5%] decrease, moderate drought for(5 %, 10%] decrease,severe drought for(10%, 20%] decrease, and extreme drought when the spring maize yield decrease is more than 20%. As a result, when light drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought happens, the spring maize drought index range is(3.2,4.2],(4. 2,6. 7],(6.7,11.7], and above 11.7. The research could provide effective method for drought prevention and disaster reduction.
Drought is the main disaster which influences spring maize over Northeast China, and spring maize yields are often affected by large regional and sustainable drought seriously. The decreasing effects can be described with meteorological drought index or agriculture drought index. Using the soil relative moisture data and county spring maize yield, as well as meteorological drought index SWAP(standardized weighted average of precipitation),a new spring maize drought index(I_(MD)) is proposed, which can reflect the decreasing maize yield induced by drought. Using soil moisture data, the spring maize drought limit is firstly researched based on SWAP. Results show in different stages of spring maze growth, SWAP thresholds are different, which are -0.9 for sowing and seeding stage, -1.0 for seeding and elongating stage,-1.2 for elongating and flowering stage, and -0.7 for flowering and maturity of spring maize. In other words, the growth of spring maize can be influenced when SWAP is moderate drought. A new spring maize drought index is researched based SWAP and SWAP limits. And results also show there is a good relationship between spring maize drought index and the provincial crop area affected by drought, especially in drought years. The coefficient between spring maize drought index and the provincial crop area affected by drought is 0.69 in Liaoning, and 0.73 in Jilin, as well as 0.64 in Heilongjiang, which indicates the new spring maize drought index can indicate actual maize drought. Finally, the classification of drought is divided using the county spring maize yields. The drought grades are defined according to the corresponding decrease of spring maize yield, light drought for(3 %, 5%] decrease, moderate drought for(5 %, 10%] decrease,severe drought for(10%, 20%] decrease, and extreme drought when the spring maize yield decrease is more than 20%. As a result, when light drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought happens, the spring maize drought index range is(3.2,4.2],(4. 2,6. 7],(6.7,11.7], and above 11.7. The research could provide effective method for drought prevention and disaster reduction.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[2]唐余学,郭建平.我国东北地区玉米冷害风险评估.应用气象学报,2016,27(3):352-360.
[3]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,1965.
[4]郭建平,田志会,张涓涓.东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):626-633.
[5]唐余学,郭建平.我国东北地区玉米冷害风险评估.应用气象学报,2016,27(3):352-360.
[6]刘步春,王石立,庄立伟,等.基于东北玉米区域动力模型的低温冷害预报应用研究.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):616-625.
[7]马树庆,刘玉英,王琪.玉米低温冷害动态评估和预测方法.应用生态学报,2006,17(10):1905-1910.
[8]杨宏毅,霍治国,杨建莹,等.江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估.应用气象学报,2017,28(2):237-246.
[9]郭建平.农业气象灾害监测预测技术研究进展.应用气象学报,2016,27(5):620-630.
[10]赵艳霞,王馥棠,裘国旺.冬小麦干旱识别和预测模型研究.应用气象学报,2001,12(2):235-241.
[11]赵海燕,高歌,张培群,等.综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性.应用气象学报,2011,22(6):698-705.
[12]中国气象局国家气候中心.全国气候影响评价.北京:气象出版社,2000.
[13]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2014.
[14] McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J. The Relationship of DroughtFrequency and Duration to Time Scales//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology Bosto. American Meteorological Society, 1993,17(22):179-183.
[15] IIayes M,Svoboda M,Wall N,et al. The Lincoln declaration on drought indices:Universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2011,92(4):485-488.
[16] Lu E. Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale. Geophys Res Lett,2009,36:L12707,DOI:10. 1029/2009GL038817.
[17] Vicente-Serrano S M,Begueria S,Lopez-Moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Climate,2010,23:1696-1718.
[18] Palmer W C. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45, US Weather Bureau,1965.
[19] Bergman K II,Sabol P.Miskus D. Experimental Indices for Monitoring Global Drought Conditions//Procedings of 13th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop. 1988:190-197.
[20] Woli P, Jones J W,Ingram K T, et al. Agricultural reference index for drought(ARID). Agron J,2012,104:287-300.
[21] Meyer S J, IIubbard K G, Wilhite D A. A crop-specific drought index for corn:II. Application in drought monitoring and assess-ment. Agron J, 1993,85:396-399.
[22] Tarpley J D,Schneider S R,Money R L. Global vegetation indices from the NOAA-7 meteorological satellite. J Climate Appl Meteor,1984,23:491-494.
[23]吕厚荃,张玉书,李茂松,等.农业干旱等级(GB/T 32136-2015).北京:中国标准出版社,2015.
[24]张存杰,刘海波,宋艳玲,等.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2017).北京:中国标准出版社,2017.
[25]张强,邹旭恺,肖风劲,等.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2006).北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[26]宋艳玲,王建林.气候变化背景下农业气象灾害对我国农业生产影响评估技术.北京:气象出版社,2017:33-36.
[27]杨霏云,郑秋红,罗蒋梅,等.实用农业气象指标.北京:气象出版社,2015:13-14.
[28]管建慧,刘克礼,郭新宇.玉米根系构型的研究进展.玉米科学,2006,14(6):162-166.
[29] Song Y L,Achberger C,Linderholm II M. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961—2008. Environ Res Lett,2011,6(3):1-8.
[30]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2004.
[31]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2007.
[2]唐余学,郭建平.我国东北地区玉米冷害风险评估.应用气象学报,2016,27(3):352-360.
[3]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,1965.
[4]郭建平,田志会,张涓涓.东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):626-633.
[5]唐余学,郭建平.我国东北地区玉米冷害风险评估.应用气象学报,2016,27(3):352-360.
[6]刘步春,王石立,庄立伟,等.基于东北玉米区域动力模型的低温冷害预报应用研究.应用气象学报,2003,14(5):616-625.
[7]马树庆,刘玉英,王琪.玉米低温冷害动态评估和预测方法.应用生态学报,2006,17(10):1905-1910.
[8]杨宏毅,霍治国,杨建莹,等.江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估.应用气象学报,2017,28(2):237-246.
[9]郭建平.农业气象灾害监测预测技术研究进展.应用气象学报,2016,27(5):620-630.
[10]赵艳霞,王馥棠,裘国旺.冬小麦干旱识别和预测模型研究.应用气象学报,2001,12(2):235-241.
[11]赵海燕,高歌,张培群,等.综合气象干旱指数修正及在西南地区的适用性.应用气象学报,2011,22(6):698-705.
[12]中国气象局国家气候中心.全国气候影响评价.北京:气象出版社,2000.
[13]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2014.
[14] McKee T B,Doesken N J,Kleist J. The Relationship of DroughtFrequency and Duration to Time Scales//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology Bosto. American Meteorological Society, 1993,17(22):179-183.
[15] IIayes M,Svoboda M,Wall N,et al. The Lincoln declaration on drought indices:Universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2011,92(4):485-488.
[16] Lu E. Determining the start, duration, and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:Rationale. Geophys Res Lett,2009,36:L12707,DOI:10. 1029/2009GL038817.
[17] Vicente-Serrano S M,Begueria S,Lopez-Moreno J I. A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. J Climate,2010,23:1696-1718.
[18] Palmer W C. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45, US Weather Bureau,1965.
[19] Bergman K II,Sabol P.Miskus D. Experimental Indices for Monitoring Global Drought Conditions//Procedings of 13th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop. 1988:190-197.
[20] Woli P, Jones J W,Ingram K T, et al. Agricultural reference index for drought(ARID). Agron J,2012,104:287-300.
[21] Meyer S J, IIubbard K G, Wilhite D A. A crop-specific drought index for corn:II. Application in drought monitoring and assess-ment. Agron J, 1993,85:396-399.
[22] Tarpley J D,Schneider S R,Money R L. Global vegetation indices from the NOAA-7 meteorological satellite. J Climate Appl Meteor,1984,23:491-494.
[23]吕厚荃,张玉书,李茂松,等.农业干旱等级(GB/T 32136-2015).北京:中国标准出版社,2015.
[24]张存杰,刘海波,宋艳玲,等.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2017).北京:中国标准出版社,2017.
[25]张强,邹旭恺,肖风劲,等.气象干旱等级(GB/T 20481-2006).北京:中国标准出版社,2006.
[26]宋艳玲,王建林.气候变化背景下农业气象灾害对我国农业生产影响评估技术.北京:气象出版社,2017:33-36.
[27]杨霏云,郑秋红,罗蒋梅,等.实用农业气象指标.北京:气象出版社,2015:13-14.
[28]管建慧,刘克礼,郭新宇.玉米根系构型的研究进展.玉米科学,2006,14(6):162-166.
[29] Song Y L,Achberger C,Linderholm II M. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961—2008. Environ Res Lett,2011,6(3):1-8.
[30]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2004.
[31]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴.北京:气象出版社,2007.