卫星降雨在流域水文设计中适用性分析
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摘要
为获取雨量站网稀疏或缺资料地区的降雨径流设计值,假定历史时期花园流域内仅有一个雨量站,借助流域31年(1983～2013年)PERSIANN-CDR卫星反演日降水数据,建立由雨量站与卫星降雨推求流域平均雨量的方法,利用新安江模型模拟日流量,并推求径流设计值,与实际值对比来检验卫星降水反演水文设计值的可行性。结果表明,直接利用PERSIANN卫星反演流域降雨误差较大,采用基于雨量站降雨与卫星降雨的人工神经网络(ANN)法计算流域平均降雨的精度有大幅提高;各雨量站模拟情景下日径流模拟确定性系数变化范围在0.50～0.79之间,年最大1、3、7d各频率设计流量与实测系列相对误差多数在20%以内,可为流域水文设计提供参考。
To determine the rainfall and runoff calculation for hydraulic engineering design in gauge-scared or ungauged basin,under the assumption that there is only one rain gauge in Huayuan watershed in the past,the PERSIANNCDR daily precipitation data(1983-2013)were adopted to calculate the daily precipitation.Satellite-based precipitation and precipitation station were established to calculate the watershed-averaged precipitation.The daily streamflow was simulated by Xin'anjiang hydrological model.The typical values for hydrological design were then obtained.The applicability and reliability of satellite-based precipitation were evaluated via the comparisons between observations and simulations.The results show using PERSIANN data inversion of rainfall has low accuracy,while the ANN-based satellite and precipitation station can substantially improve the accuracy.The coefficient of determination changes in different scenarios,and its values range from 0.50 to 0.79.The relative errors between simulated and observed designed flood at the typical frequency in different scenarios are mostly within 20%,which can serve as the references for water resources design.
To determine the rainfall and runoff calculation for hydraulic engineering design in gauge-scared or ungauged basin,under the assumption that there is only one rain gauge in Huayuan watershed in the past,the PERSIANNCDR daily precipitation data(1983-2013)were adopted to calculate the daily precipitation.Satellite-based precipitation and precipitation station were established to calculate the watershed-averaged precipitation.The daily streamflow was simulated by Xin'anjiang hydrological model.The typical values for hydrological design were then obtained.The applicability and reliability of satellite-based precipitation were evaluated via the comparisons between observations and simulations.The results show using PERSIANN data inversion of rainfall has low accuracy,while the ANN-based satellite and precipitation station can substantially improve the accuracy.The coefficient of determination changes in different scenarios,and its values range from 0.50 to 0.79.The relative errors between simulated and observed designed flood at the typical frequency in different scenarios are mostly within 20%,which can serve as the references for water resources design.
引文
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[3] Hrachowitz M,Savenije H H G,Blschl G,et al.A Decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins(PUB)—A Review[J].Hydrological Sciences Journal,2013,58(6):1 198-1 255.
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[5]杨秀芹,耿文杰.淮河流域TRMM多源卫星降水产品精度评估[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(7):1-5.
[6]Miao C,Ashouri H,Hsu K,et al.Evaluation of the PERSIANN-CDR Daily Rainfall Estimates in Capturing the Behavior of Extreme Precipitation Events over China[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2015,16(6):1 387-1 396.
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