广东沿海地区极值风速空间插值方法的对比研究
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摘要
利用反距离加权法、Cressman法、基于规则样条函数和平板样条函数的径向基函数法、普通Kriging法和泛Kriging法等4大类共6种空间插值方法,对位于广东沿海地区的26个国家级气象站、101个自动气象站和6个海洋站在内的133个站点重现期为50年离地10 m高10 min平均的最大风速进行空间插值研究,并进行交叉验证和空间分布对比。结果表明,Cressman法的绝对误差最小;泛Kriging法的均方根误差最小,相关系数最高;泛Kriging法在空间分布上更贴合实际情况,更适用于广东沿海地区极值风速的空间插值。
Data from 26 national reference weather stations,101 regional automatic weather stations and 6 ocean observation stations in Guangdong coastal area are collected.Inverse Distance Weighting scheme,Cressman Interpolation scheme,Radial Basis Function scheme and Kriging method are then empolyed to study the continuous extreme wind speed distribution spatial interpolation experiment of 10 min averaged extreme wind speed at 10 meters above ground with a return peroid of 50 years.Cross-validation shows that the Mean Absolute Error of Cressman Interpolation is least while Universe Kriging interpolation lead to the least Root-Mean-Square Error and the best correlation coefficient.It is indicated that Universe Kriging interpolation is more appropriate for extreme wind speed spatial interpolation in Guangdong coastal area.
Data from 26 national reference weather stations,101 regional automatic weather stations and 6 ocean observation stations in Guangdong coastal area are collected.Inverse Distance Weighting scheme,Cressman Interpolation scheme,Radial Basis Function scheme and Kriging method are then empolyed to study the continuous extreme wind speed distribution spatial interpolation experiment of 10 min averaged extreme wind speed at 10 meters above ground with a return peroid of 50 years.Cross-validation shows that the Mean Absolute Error of Cressman Interpolation is least while Universe Kriging interpolation lead to the least Root-Mean-Square Error and the best correlation coefficient.It is indicated that Universe Kriging interpolation is more appropriate for extreme wind speed spatial interpolation in Guangdong coastal area.
引文
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[2]唐晓春,刘会平,潘安定,等.广东沿海地区近50年登陆台风灾害特征分析[J].地理科学,2003,23(2):182-187.TANG Xiaochun,LIU Huiping,PAN Anding,et al.Analysis of Disastrous Features of Landing Typhoon in Coastal Regions of Guangdong Province in Recent 50 Years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2003,23(2):182-187.
[3]王同美,温之平,李彦,等.登陆广东热带气旋统计及个例的对比分析[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2003,42(5):97-100.WANG Tongmei,Wen Zhiping,Li Yan,et al.Comparative Analysis of The Duration Reason of Tropical Cyclones Landing on Guangdong[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2003,42(5):97-100.
[4]胡娅敏,宋丽莉,罗晓玲.近58年登陆广东热带气旋位置和生成源地的变化[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2011,50(4):113-120.HU Yamin,SONG Lili,LUO Xiaoling.The Variation of the Location and Source Region of Tropical Cyclones M aking Landfall in Guangdong Over the Past 58 Years[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni,2011,50(4):113-120.
[5]林忠辉,莫兴国,李宏轩,等.中国陆地区域气象要素的空间插值[J].地理学报,2002,57(1):47-56.LIN Zhonghui,M O Xingguo,LI Hongxuan,et al.Comparison of Three Spatial Interpolation M ethods for Climate Variables in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2002,57(1):47-56.
[6]APAYDIN H.SONMEZ F K,YILDIRIM Y E.Spatial Interpolation Techniques for Climate Data in the GAP Region in Turkey.Climate Research,2004(28):31-40.
[7]于飞,郑小波,谷晓平,等.复杂山地环境下气候要素空间插值精度比较研究[J].贵州气象,2008,32(3):3-6.YU Fei,ZHENG Xiaobo,GU Xiaoping,et al.Comparison of Spatial Interpolation for Climatic Element in Complex M ountain Terrain[J].Journal of Guizhou M eteorology,2008,32(3):3-6.
[8]曾红伟,李丽娟,张永萱,等.大样本降水空间插值研究-以2009年中国年降水为例[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(7):811-818.ZENG Hongw ei,LI Lijuan,ZHANG Yongxuan,et al.Study on Spatial Interpolation of Precipitation w ith Large Scale Samples:A Case Study on 2009's Precipitation of China[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(7):811-818.
[9]金君,彭思岭,刘启航,等.中国陆地区域气象要素空间插值方法比较研究[J].工程勘察,2010(11):48-51.JIN Jun,PENG Siling,LIU Qiliang,et al.A Comparative Study of Spatial Interpolation M ethods for M eteorological Elements in China[J].Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying,2010(11):48-51.
[10]胡林涓,彭定志,张明月,等.雅鲁藏布江流域气象要素空间插值方法的比较与改进[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(5):449-452.HU Linjuan,PENG Dingzhi,ZHANG M ingyue,et al.Spatial Interpolation of M eteorological Variables in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),2012,48(5):449-452.
[11]YE Wei.Spatial Variation and Interpolation of Wind Statistics and Its Implication in Design Wind Load[D].Ontario:The University of Western Ontario,2013.
[12]郑永骏,金之雁.对偶Kriging插值方法在气象资料分析中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(2):201-208.ZHENG Yongjun,JIN Zhiyan.The Application of Dual Kriging Interpolation M ethod to M eteorological Data Analysis[J].Journal of Applied M eteorological Science,2008,19(2):201-208.