区域雷电灾害风险评估模型与应用
|
摘要
在分析国内雷电灾害风险区划发展现状进行的基础上,从区域雷电灾害事前风险评估的角度出发,采用灾害评估的承灾体、致灾体模式,引入雷电风险、地域风险和承灾体风险作为评估指标,针对每个指标选取与其发生紧密度较高的参数作为2级评价标准,对区域雷电灾害风险进行基于事前致灾因子的区域雷电灾害风险评估研究,并以福建省为例,应用该模型进行了计算。结果表明,基于承灾体、致灾体模式的区域雷电灾害风险评估模型能较好地反应出区域雷电灾害发生的损失程度,对于行政区域范围的雷电灾害风险度区域与政府决策支持具有积极的指导意义。
Based on the development situation of the current lightning disaster risk regionalization,the paper starts with the prior risk assessment of regional lightning disaster risk and uses the disaster bearing body and hazard body model to establish evaluation indicators,which contain lightning risk,regional risk and disasters.By this model,the parameters with higher degree of intimacy are selected to study the prior hazard assessment of regional lightning disaster risk.Taking Fujian Province as an example to apply the model,the results indicate that this model can reflect well the degree of loss in lightning disaster areas.It is of positive significance to the researches on regional lightning disaster risk and the support of decision making for regional governments.
Based on the development situation of the current lightning disaster risk regionalization,the paper starts with the prior risk assessment of regional lightning disaster risk and uses the disaster bearing body and hazard body model to establish evaluation indicators,which contain lightning risk,regional risk and disasters.By this model,the parameters with higher degree of intimacy are selected to study the prior hazard assessment of regional lightning disaster risk.Taking Fujian Province as an example to apply the model,the results indicate that this model can reflect well the degree of loss in lightning disaster areas.It is of positive significance to the researches on regional lightning disaster risk and the support of decision making for regional governments.
引文
[1]陈华晖.区域雷击风险评估方法研究及其应用[D].上海:华东理工大学.2014.
[2]劳炜,植耀玲.油库的区域雷电灾害风险评估[J].气象研究与应用,2012(3):77-86.
[3]钟颖颖.洋口港区雷击风险及预警方法研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[4]林溪猛,郑小琴,陈艺宏.古雷石化基地区域雷电灾害风险评估与区划[J].陕西气象.2015(1):33-36.
[5]郭虎,熊亚军.北京市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):35-40.
[6]曾金全,张烨方,王颖波.基于综合评价算法的雷电灾害易损度区划模型研究[J].气象,2011,12:1595-1600.
[7]王赟,王洪祥,满永恒.基于层次分析法的大连区域雷灾易损性评价[J].气象科技,2014,42(4):702-706.
[8]王淑一,邹善勇,王囝囝.大连市雷电灾害风险评估体系指标量化方法[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):510-516.
[9]梁凤娟,孟雪峰,王永清,等.基于GIS的雪灾风险区划[J].气象科技,2014,42(2):336-340.
[10]张烨方,冯真祯,王颖波,等.基于GIS的网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型及其应用[J].气象科技,2016,44(1):142-147.
[11]张烨方,冯真祯,王颖波,等.应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估[J].气象科技,2016,44(2):319-324.
[12]冯真祯,曾金全,张烨方,等.福建省地闪时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):213-221.
[13]杨仲江,江珂,曹洪亮,等.基于inpolygon的区域外闪电剔除方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,3(29):72-76.
[14]曾金全,朱彪,王颖波,等.基于雷电临近预警技术的主动防雷应用[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(5):610-617.
[15]肖稳安,李霞.防雷专业技术知识问答[M],北京:气象出版社,2010:30-30.
[2]劳炜,植耀玲.油库的区域雷电灾害风险评估[J].气象研究与应用,2012(3):77-86.
[3]钟颖颖.洋口港区雷击风险及预警方法研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2011.
[4]林溪猛,郑小琴,陈艺宏.古雷石化基地区域雷电灾害风险评估与区划[J].陕西气象.2015(1):33-36.
[5]郭虎,熊亚军.北京市雷电灾害易损性分析、评估及易损度区划[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(1):35-40.
[6]曾金全,张烨方,王颖波.基于综合评价算法的雷电灾害易损度区划模型研究[J].气象,2011,12:1595-1600.
[7]王赟,王洪祥,满永恒.基于层次分析法的大连区域雷灾易损性评价[J].气象科技,2014,42(4):702-706.
[8]王淑一,邹善勇,王囝囝.大连市雷电灾害风险评估体系指标量化方法[J].气象科技,2016,44(3):510-516.
[9]梁凤娟,孟雪峰,王永清,等.基于GIS的雪灾风险区划[J].气象科技,2014,42(2):336-340.
[10]张烨方,冯真祯,王颖波,等.基于GIS的网格化雷电灾害风险评估模型及其应用[J].气象科技,2016,44(1):142-147.
[11]张烨方,冯真祯,王颖波,等.应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估[J].气象科技,2016,44(2):319-324.
[12]冯真祯,曾金全,张烨方,等.福建省地闪时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(4):213-221.
[13]杨仲江,江珂,曹洪亮,等.基于inpolygon的区域外闪电剔除方法研究[J].灾害学,2014,3(29):72-76.
[14]曾金全,朱彪,王颖波,等.基于雷电临近预警技术的主动防雷应用[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(5):610-617.
[15]肖稳安,李霞.防雷专业技术知识问答[M],北京:气象出版社,2010:30-30.