中国铝土矿进口来源国国别研究
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摘要
近五年来,中国铝土矿的年均进口量约5 500万t,对外依存度为45%,而未来年均仍需进口约7 000万t的优质铝土矿石,对外依存度将长期维持在40%～50%。因此,如何获取稳定的境外铝土矿资源成为目前急需解决的问题。本文介绍了澳大利亚等六个铝土矿主要来源国的资源、产量等情况,利用改进的多样性指数和投资组合模型,选取资源、产量、对华贸易、地缘政治和运输五个指标,综合分析各个主要来源国的进口安全状况,得出我国未来获取铝土矿的优选次序依次为几内亚、澳大利亚、巴西、印度尼西亚、印度、马来西亚。另外,提出了未来中国要合理规划铝土矿布局和实现产能转移等建议。
In the past 5 years,Chinas annual average import of bauxite is about 55 million tons,and the foreign dependence is 45%.In the future,about 70 million tons of high quality bauxite ore still need to be imported,and the foreign dependency will be maintained at 40%-50%for a long time.Therefore,how to obtain stable offshore bauxite resources has become an urgent problem to be solved.This paper describes the situation of resources and production in Australia and other five major sources of bauxite.Using the improved diversity index and investment portfolio model,we selected five indicators:resources,production,trade with China,geopolitics,and transportation.The analysis of the import safety of each major source country indicates that the order of preference for bauxite mining in the future is Guinea,Australia,Brazil,Indonesia,India,and Malaysia.It puts forward suggestions for China to rationally plan the layout of bauxite in the futureand realize capacity transfer.
In the past 5 years,Chinas annual average import of bauxite is about 55 million tons,and the foreign dependence is 45%.In the future,about 70 million tons of high quality bauxite ore still need to be imported,and the foreign dependency will be maintained at 40%-50%for a long time.Therefore,how to obtain stable offshore bauxite resources has become an urgent problem to be solved.This paper describes the situation of resources and production in Australia and other five major sources of bauxite.Using the improved diversity index and investment portfolio model,we selected five indicators:resources,production,trade with China,geopolitics,and transportation.The analysis of the import safety of each major source country indicates that the order of preference for bauxite mining in the future is Guinea,Australia,Brazil,Indonesia,India,and Malaysia.It puts forward suggestions for China to rationally plan the layout of bauxite in the futureand realize capacity transfer.
引文
[1]陈甲斌,余韵,胡德文.主要矿产品供需形势分析报告[M].北京:地质出版社,2015.
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[21]自然资源部测绘地理信息管理.标准地图服务[DB/OL].http:∥bzdt.nasg.gov.cn/jsp/.
[2]黄河.几内亚铝土矿资源及投资建议浅析[J].世界有色金属,2017(10):22-25.HUANG He.Analysis on the bauxite resources and investment advices in Guinea[J].World Nonferrous Metals,2017(10):22-25.
[3] USGS.Mineral commodity summaries 2017[R].2017.
[4]高兴同,郭沈,厉衡隆.中国进口铝土矿综论[J].轻金属,2016(7):4-11.GAO Xingtong,GUO Shen,LI Henglong.Summary and study of the imported bauxite in China[J].Light Metals,2016(7):4-11.
[5]申凌燕.2017年1月份氧化铝市场评述及后市展望[J].中国铝业,2017(2).SHEN Lingyan.Review and outlook of alumina market in January 2017[J].China Aluminum,2017(2).
[6]中华人民共和国国家统计局.2011~2017中国氧化铝产量数据[DB/OL].http:∥data.stats.gov.cn/.
[7] WBMS.World Metal Statistics Yearbook[M].UK:World Bureau of Metals Statistics,2016~2017.
[8]安泰科.2017年氧化铝市场发展报告[R].北京:安泰科铝研究团队,2018.
[9]卓创资讯.2017~2018年中国铝市场报告[R].山东:卓创资讯事业部,2018.
[10]中华人民共和国海关总署.中国海关统计年鉴[M].北京:中国海关出版社,1991~2017.
[11] UN.2006~2016年铝土矿贸易统计数据[DB/OL].https:∥comtrade.un.org/data/.
[12]张苺.澳大利亚矿业发展(2002~2006年)[J].中国金属通报,2008(24):32-35.ZHANG Mei.Australian mining development(2002~2006)[J].China Metal Bulletin,2008(24):32-35.
[13]杨佩桦.中澳能矿资源合作之研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2014.
[14]段俊梅,马伯永,杨文瑞,等.印度铝土矿资源及其特征[C]∥2015中国地球科学联合学术年会论文集(五).2015.
[15]黄河.中国氧化铝行业使用印度进口铝土矿前景分析[J].有色金属设计,2016,43(3):55-59.HUANG He.Analysis on the application prospects of indian imported bauxite in alumina refineries in China[J].Nonferrous Metals Design,2016,43(3):55-59.
[16]李旺兴,MARJA Brouwer.巴西铝工业的现状与发展[J].世界有色金属,2012(11):64-65.LI Wangxing,MARJA Brouwer.Present situation and development of Brazil aluminum industry[J].World Nonferrous Metals,2012(11):64-65.
[17]卫灵,王雯.“金砖四国”中的巴西及中国-巴西双边贸易分析[J].当代财经,2010(10):98-102.WEI Ling,WANG Wen.Brazil and China in “BRICs”:an analysis of Sino-Brazil bilateral trade[J].Contemporary Finance&Economics,2010(10):98-102.
[18]宋国明.印尼矿业概览[J].中国金属通报,2009(11):32-33.SONG Guoming.Overview of Indonesias mining industry[J].China Metal Bulletin,2009(11):32-33.
[19] USGS.2006~2018年铝土矿统计数据[DB/OL].http:∥minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/pubs/commodity/bauxite/.
[20] Political Risk Services.2000~2016年各国政治风险指数数据[DB/OL]https:∥www.prsgroup.com/explore-our-products/political-risk-services/.
[21]自然资源部测绘地理信息管理.标准地图服务[DB/OL].http:∥bzdt.nasg.gov.cn/jsp/.