装配式建筑项目投资风险评价
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摘要
推行装配式建筑是建筑产业化的必然趋势。与传统建筑相比,装配式建筑不仅在施工和技术等方面有所不同,在投资风险管理,以及投资风险评价指标的选用上也存在差异。从政策、市场、技术、经济及管理5个层面进行投资风险影响剖析,据此建立装配式建筑项目投资风险评价体系。通过问卷调研以及SEM结构方程模型拟合,得出相应的评价指标权重,并结合案例,实现对装配式项目投资风险的定量评价,为装配式项目的投资风险评价提供了参考依据。
The implementation of prefabricated buildings is an inevitable trend of construction industrialization. Compared with traditional buildings,prefabricated buildings are distinguished not only in the construction technology,but also in investment risk management and index selection of investment risk evaluation. The investment risk impact is analyzed from policy,market,technology,economy and management aspects in this study. The investment risk evaluation system for prefabricated buildings is built based on the above analyses. The evaluation index weight is obtained by conducting questionnaire survey and structural equation model. The evaluation index is verified in the real cases to assess investment risk. This study provides solid references for investment risk evaluation of prefabricated buildings.
The implementation of prefabricated buildings is an inevitable trend of construction industrialization. Compared with traditional buildings,prefabricated buildings are distinguished not only in the construction technology,but also in investment risk management and index selection of investment risk evaluation. The investment risk impact is analyzed from policy,market,technology,economy and management aspects in this study. The investment risk evaluation system for prefabricated buildings is built based on the above analyses. The evaluation index weight is obtained by conducting questionnaire survey and structural equation model. The evaluation index is verified in the real cases to assess investment risk. This study provides solid references for investment risk evaluation of prefabricated buildings.
引文
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[23]郑生钦,王德芳,等.基于SEM的装配式建筑成本影响因素研究[J].项目管理技术,2016,14(11):45-49.
[2]田东,李新伟,等.基于BIM的装配式混凝土建筑构件系统设计分析与研究[J].建筑结构,2016(17):58-62.
[3]Ng A,Loosemore M.Risk Allocation in the Private Provision of Public Infrastructure[J].International Journal of Project Management,2007,25(1):66-76.
[4]Ye S D,Tiong R L K.The Effect of Concession Period Design on Completion Risk Management of BT Projects[J].Construction Management and Economics,2013,21(5):471-482.
[5]Stroebele B S,Kiessling A J,Zhang J.Impact Analysis of Complexity Drivers in the Supply Chain of Prefabricated Houses[J].Journal of Management&Strategy,2018,8(1):1-3.
[6]Zhong R Y,Peng Y,Xue F,et al.Prefabricated Construction Enabled by the Internet-of-Things[J].Automation in Construction,2017,76:59-70.
[7]Rose L.Risk management Project for Work with Precast Concrete Shells[J].Work,2012,41(6):415-416.
[8]张洁茹.预制装配式建筑在中国市场的投资风险分析[J].财经界(学术版),2014(7):99.
[9]陈启湛.预制装配式建筑的投资控制[J].城市建筑,2017(5):210-211.
[10]李育林.装配式钢结构住宅投资成本分析[J].工程经济,2017,27(12):9-12.
[11]陈艳,杜西津,王宇.装配式建筑风险评估体系的建立和方法研究[J].价值工程,2017,36(28):16-19.
[12]齐宝库,朱娅,范伟阳.装配式建筑全寿命周期风险因素识别方法[J].沈阳建筑大学学报:社会科学版,2016(3):257-261.
[13]Ke Y,Wang S Q,Chan A P C.Risk Allocation in Public-Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects:Comparative Study[J].Journal of Infrastructure Systems,2010,16(4):343-351.
[14]宋美薇.工程项目投资风险评价研究[D].吉林大学,2016.3.
[15]文敏.装配式混凝土住宅楼工程造价风险管理应用研究[D].湖南农业大学,2016.18.
[16]岑岩,刘美霞.装配式建筑经济政策评估与建议[J].住宅产业,2016(9):24-33.
[17]齐宝库,朱娅.装配式建筑风险评价方法研究[J].工程造价管理,2015(4):30-33.
[18]黄宇星,祝磊,叶桢翔,等.预制混凝土结构连接方式研究综述[J].混凝土,2013(1):120-126.
[19]刘迎.论建筑业投资项目的融资风险管理[J].城市建设理论研究,2013(16):6-19.
[20]冮兴伟.对房地产开发中建筑工程项目管理方法的探讨[J].中国科技投资,2016(26):94.
[21]孙连荣.结构方程模型(SEM)的原理及操作[J].宁波大学学报,2005(2):31-34,43.
[22]桑培东,李金晓.基于结构方程的装配式建筑项目开发建设风险评价[J].土木工程与管理学报,2017,34(4):89-95.
[23]郑生钦,王德芳,等.基于SEM的装配式建筑成本影响因素研究[J].项目管理技术,2016,14(11):45-49.