基于投入产出法的柑桔黄龙病经济损失评估
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摘要
黄龙病是迄今为止最具毁灭性的柑桔检疫性病虫害,对全球柑桔产业的发展造成了巨大的影响,使果农损失惨重。为此迫切需要量化研究黄龙病对柑桔产业造成的经济损失,从而为有效防控柑桔黄龙病、保护果农收益提供理论依据和决策参考。基于微观调研数据,先测算黄龙病暴发导致赣南三县(信丰县、安远县和寻乌县)的直接经济损失,再采用投入产出法评估其间接经济损失。研究发现,黄龙病暴发造成赣南三县2016年的直接经济损失约为44.92亿元,占当年GDP的15.4%;由于关联效应造成赣南三县的间接经济损失约为42.91亿元,占当年GDP的14.71%;黄龙病暴发对当地食品工业和服务业发展也带来了次生影响。
引文
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[23]丁先军,杨翠红,祝坤福.基于投入-产出模型的灾害经济影响评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(2):113-118
[24]刘永忠,彭抒昂,张生才,等.柑桔黄龙病防控关键点分析及其实证[J].中国南方果树,2017,46(6):40-44
[2]FARNSWORTH D,GROGAN K,VAN BRUGGEN AH C,et al.The potential economic cost and response to greening in Florida citrus[J].Choices,2014,29(3):1-6
[3]DEWDNEY M M,ROGERS M E,BRLANSKY RH.2016Florida citrus pest management guide:Ch.27Huanglongbing(Citrus Greening)[J].Plant Pathology,2016,43(5):225-228
[4]COURT C D,HODGES A W,RAHMANI M,et al.Economic contributions of the Florida citrus industry in2015-16[EB/OL].http://www.fred.ifas.ufl.edu/media/fredifasufledu/photos/economic-impact/Economic-Impacts-of-the-Florida-Citrus-Industry-2015-16.pdf,2017-06-20/2017-12-26
[5]SPREEN T H,BARBER R E,BROWN M G,et al.An economic assessment of the future prospects for the Florida citrus industry[EB/OL].http://www.imok.ufl.edu/hlb/database/pdf/00000292.pdf,2006-4-14/2017-12-26
[6]NEUPANE D,MOSS C B,BRUGGEN A.Estimating citrus production loss due to citrus Huanglongbing in Florida[J].Charles Moss,2016,23(8):36-61
[7]SPREEN T H,BALDWIN J P,FUTCH S H.An Economic assessment of the impact of Huanglongbing on citrus tree plantings in Florida[J].Hortscience APublication of the American Society for Horticultural Science,2014,49(8):1052-1055
[8]HODGES A W,SPREEN T H.Economic impacts of citrus greening(HLB)in Florida,2006/07-2010/11[J].Food&Resource Economics,2012,78(9):58-72
[9]MOSS C B,GROGAN K A,FARNSWORTH D,et al.The economic cost of huanglongbing(citrus greening)to Florida’s orange industry:estimates of producer and consumer surplus[DB/OL].http://www.imok.ufl.edu/hlb/database/pdf/10v_Moss_14.pdf,2015-10-01
[10]STRANGE R N,SCOTT P R.Plant disease:a threat to global food security[J].Annual Review of Phytopathology,2005,43(1):83-92
[11]ALAM K,ROLFE J.Economics of plant disease outbreaks[J].Agenda A Journal of Policy Analysis&Reform,2006,13(2):133-146
[12]徐嵩龄.灾害经济损失概念及产业关联型间接经济损失计量[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(4):7-15
[13]宁昭玉.桔小实蝇对福建省危害的经济损失评估与风险评价[D].福州:福建农林大学,2008:12-36
[14]赵铁珍,高岚,柯水发,等.美国白蛾入侵损失评估指标体系的构建[J].北京林业大学学报,2007,29(2):156-160
[15]何天富.柑桔学[M].北京:中国农业出版社,1999:162-183
[16]ITTERSUM M K V,CASSMAN K G,GRASSINIP,et al.Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance-A review[J].Field Crops Research,2013,143(1):4-17
[17]FRENCH B C,BRESSLER R G.The Lemon Cycle[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1962,44(4):1021-1036
[18]FRENCH B C,MATTHEWS J L.A Supply Response Model for Perennial Crops[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1971,53(3):478-490
[19]孟永昌,王铸,吴吉东,等.巨灾影响的全球性:以东日本大地震的经济影响为例[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(6):1-8
[20]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国地区投入产出表·2012[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016:215-219
[21]陈前.基于投入产出模型的冰雪灾害间接经济损失评价研究[D].湘潭:湖南科技大学,2015:33-48
[22]路琮,魏一鸣,范英,等.灾害对国民经济影响的定量分析模型及其应用[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):15-20
[23]丁先军,杨翠红,祝坤福.基于投入-产出模型的灾害经济影响评价方法[J].自然灾害学报,2010,19(2):113-118
[24]刘永忠,彭抒昂,张生才,等.柑桔黄龙病防控关键点分析及其实证[J].中国南方果树,2017,46(6):40-44