计及风电功率预测误差的备用容量计算新方法
|
摘要
风电出力的不确定性对于备用容量的配置具有重要影响。基于此,提出了一种计及风电功率预测误差的备用容量计算新方法。针对拉普拉斯分布形状调整不够灵活的问题,提出了一种改进拉普拉斯分布。并以此为基础,提出了一种发电机备用容量计算新方法。该方法首先以最小化发电成本为目标的最优潮流模型,对系统各机组的运行基准点进行求解;再按照鲁棒优化思想并结合发电机自动发电控制(AGC)的仿射模型建立鲁棒最优潮流模型求解各AGC机组参与因子;最后结合等概率转换原则求解系统的备用容量。算例分析表明,所提改进拉普拉斯分布模型拟合效果较好,且所提备用容量计算新方法能够综合考虑系统安全性和经济性的需求。
The uncertainty of wind power has great influence to spare capacity. On this basis, a new calculation method of spare capacity considering wind power forecasting error is proposed. Firstly, considering the inflexible problem of Laplace distribution, an improved Laplace distribution is proposed. Secondly, a new method is proposed to calculate the spinning reserve capacity. First, taking minimum cost as objective function, the based operation point can be gotten by solving the optimal power flow. Then, it builds robust optimal power flow model by considering robust optimization and affine model of Automatic Generation Control(AGC) to solve the participation factors of AGC generators. The spare capacity can be solved combining equal probability conversion principle. From the simulation, the proposed forecasting error model is of high accuracy and the calculation satisfies the requirements of safety and economy.
The uncertainty of wind power has great influence to spare capacity. On this basis, a new calculation method of spare capacity considering wind power forecasting error is proposed. Firstly, considering the inflexible problem of Laplace distribution, an improved Laplace distribution is proposed. Secondly, a new method is proposed to calculate the spinning reserve capacity. First, taking minimum cost as objective function, the based operation point can be gotten by solving the optimal power flow. Then, it builds robust optimal power flow model by considering robust optimization and affine model of Automatic Generation Control(AGC) to solve the participation factors of AGC generators. The spare capacity can be solved combining equal probability conversion principle. From the simulation, the proposed forecasting error model is of high accuracy and the calculation satisfies the requirements of safety and economy.
引文
[1]LI Jinghua,WANG Sai,YE Liu,et al.A coordinated dispatch method with pumped-storage and battery-storage for compensating the variation of wind power[J].Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems,2018,3(3):21-34.DOI:10.1186/s41601-017-0074-9.
[2]罗超,杨军,孙元章,等.考虑备用容量优化分配的含风电电力系统动态经济调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(34):6109-6118.LUO Chao,YANG Jun,SUN Yuanzhang,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering optimal scheduling of reserve capacity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(34):6109-6118.
[3]魏韡,刘锋,梅生伟.电力系统鲁棒经济调度(一)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(17):37-43.WEI Wei,LIU Feng,MEI Shengwei.Robust and economical scheduling methodology for power system part one theoretical foundations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(17):37-43.
[4]魏韡,刘锋,梅生伟.电力系统鲁棒经济调度(二)应用实例[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):60-67.WEI Wei,LIU Feng,MEI Shengwei.Robust and economical scheduling methodology for power system part two application examples[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):60-67.
[5]吕智林,孙顺吉,汤泽琦,等.基于序列运算理论的微电网正负旋转备用容量优化[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(20):100-109.LüZhilin,SUN Shunji,TANG Zeqi,et al.Optimal scheduling of plus and minus spinning reserve in microgrid based on sequence operation theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(20):100-109.
[6]张颖超,王雅晨,邓华,等.基于IAFSA-BPNN的短期风电功率预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(7):58-63.ZHANG Yingchao,WANG Yachen,DENG Hua,et al.IAFSA-BPNN for wind power probabilistic forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):58-63.
[7]杨杰,霍志红,何永生,等.基于小波与最小资源分配网络的超短期风电功率预测研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(9):55-61.YANG Jie,HUO Zhihong,HE Yongsheng,et al.Ultrashort-term wind power prediction based on wavelet and minimum resource allocation network[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(9):55-61.
[8]刘德伟,郭剑波,黄越辉,等.基于风电功率概率预测和运行风险约束的含风电场电力系统动态经济调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(16):9-15.LIU Dewei,GUO Jianbo,HUANG Yuehui,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system based on wind power probabilistic forecasting and operation risk constraints[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(16):9-15.
[9]刘燕华,李伟花,刘冲,等.短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(10):2375-2382.LIU Yanhua,LI Weihua,LIU Chong,et al.Mixed skew distribution model of short-term wind power prediction error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(10):2375-2382.
[10]刘斌,周京阳,周海明,等.一种改进的风电功率预测误差分布模型[J].华东电力,2012,40(2):286-291.LIU Bin,ZHOU Jingyang,ZHOU Haiming,et al.An improved model for wind power forecast error distribution[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(2):286-291.
[11]吴俊利.计及充裕性风险的含大规模风电电力系统经济调度问题研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2015.WU Junli.Research on economic dispatch of large-scale wind power integrated system with consideration of adequacy risk[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2015.
[12]刘芳,潘毅,刘辉,等.风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):14-19.LIU Fang,PAN Yi,LIU Hui,et al.Piecewise exponential distribution model of wind power forecasting error[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):14-19.
[13]王丹平,陈之栩,涂孟夫,等.考虑大规模风电接入的备用容量计算[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(21):24-28.WANG Danping,CHEN Zhixu,TU Mengfu,et al.Reserve capacity calculation considering large-scale wind power integration[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(21):24-28.
[14]RABILH A J.Adjustable robust OPF with renewable energy sources[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(4):4742-4751.
[15]BAI Xiaoqing,QU Liyan,QIAO Wei.Robust ACoptimal power flow for power networks with wind power generation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(5):4163-4164.
[16]郭永明,李仲昌,尤小虎,等.计及备用容量优化配置的风火联合随机经济调度模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(24):31-36.GUO Yongming,LI Zhongchang,YOU Xiaohu,et al.Stochastic economic dispatch model for joint delivery of wind power and thermal power generation system considering optimal scheduling of reserve capacity[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(24):31-36.
[17]兑潇玮,朱桂萍,刘艳章.考虑预测误差的风电场储能配置优化方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(2):434-439.DUI Xiaowei,ZHU Guiping,LIU Yanzhang.Research on battery storage sizing for wind farm considering forecast error[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(2):434-439.
[18]MIRJALIL S,MIRJALIL S M,LEWIS A.Grey wolf optimizer[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2014,69:46-61.
[19]WOOD A J,WOLLENBERG B F.Power generation operation and control[M].New York:Wiley,1996.
[20]梅生伟,郭文涛,王莹莹,等.一类电力系统鲁棒优化问题的博弈模型及应用实例[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(19):47-56.MEI Shengwei,GUO Wentao,WANG Yingying,et al.Agame model for robust optimization of power systems and its application[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(19):47-56.
[2]罗超,杨军,孙元章,等.考虑备用容量优化分配的含风电电力系统动态经济调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(34):6109-6118.LUO Chao,YANG Jun,SUN Yuanzhang,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering optimal scheduling of reserve capacity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(34):6109-6118.
[3]魏韡,刘锋,梅生伟.电力系统鲁棒经济调度(一)理论基础[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(17):37-43.WEI Wei,LIU Feng,MEI Shengwei.Robust and economical scheduling methodology for power system part one theoretical foundations[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(17):37-43.
[4]魏韡,刘锋,梅生伟.电力系统鲁棒经济调度(二)应用实例[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):60-67.WEI Wei,LIU Feng,MEI Shengwei.Robust and economical scheduling methodology for power system part two application examples[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):60-67.
[5]吕智林,孙顺吉,汤泽琦,等.基于序列运算理论的微电网正负旋转备用容量优化[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(20):100-109.LüZhilin,SUN Shunji,TANG Zeqi,et al.Optimal scheduling of plus and minus spinning reserve in microgrid based on sequence operation theory[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(20):100-109.
[6]张颖超,王雅晨,邓华,等.基于IAFSA-BPNN的短期风电功率预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(7):58-63.ZHANG Yingchao,WANG Yachen,DENG Hua,et al.IAFSA-BPNN for wind power probabilistic forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):58-63.
[7]杨杰,霍志红,何永生,等.基于小波与最小资源分配网络的超短期风电功率预测研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(9):55-61.YANG Jie,HUO Zhihong,HE Yongsheng,et al.Ultrashort-term wind power prediction based on wavelet and minimum resource allocation network[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(9):55-61.
[8]刘德伟,郭剑波,黄越辉,等.基于风电功率概率预测和运行风险约束的含风电场电力系统动态经济调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(16):9-15.LIU Dewei,GUO Jianbo,HUANG Yuehui,et al.Dynamic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system based on wind power probabilistic forecasting and operation risk constraints[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(16):9-15.
[9]刘燕华,李伟花,刘冲,等.短期风电功率预测误差的混合偏态分布模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(10):2375-2382.LIU Yanhua,LI Weihua,LIU Chong,et al.Mixed skew distribution model of short-term wind power prediction error[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(10):2375-2382.
[10]刘斌,周京阳,周海明,等.一种改进的风电功率预测误差分布模型[J].华东电力,2012,40(2):286-291.LIU Bin,ZHOU Jingyang,ZHOU Haiming,et al.An improved model for wind power forecast error distribution[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(2):286-291.
[11]吴俊利.计及充裕性风险的含大规模风电电力系统经济调度问题研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2015.WU Junli.Research on economic dispatch of large-scale wind power integrated system with consideration of adequacy risk[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2015.
[12]刘芳,潘毅,刘辉,等.风电功率预测误差分段指数分布模型[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):14-19.LIU Fang,PAN Yi,LIU Hui,et al.Piecewise exponential distribution model of wind power forecasting error[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):14-19.
[13]王丹平,陈之栩,涂孟夫,等.考虑大规模风电接入的备用容量计算[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(21):24-28.WANG Danping,CHEN Zhixu,TU Mengfu,et al.Reserve capacity calculation considering large-scale wind power integration[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(21):24-28.
[14]RABILH A J.Adjustable robust OPF with renewable energy sources[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2013,28(4):4742-4751.
[15]BAI Xiaoqing,QU Liyan,QIAO Wei.Robust ACoptimal power flow for power networks with wind power generation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(5):4163-4164.
[16]郭永明,李仲昌,尤小虎,等.计及备用容量优化配置的风火联合随机经济调度模型[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(24):31-36.GUO Yongming,LI Zhongchang,YOU Xiaohu,et al.Stochastic economic dispatch model for joint delivery of wind power and thermal power generation system considering optimal scheduling of reserve capacity[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(24):31-36.
[17]兑潇玮,朱桂萍,刘艳章.考虑预测误差的风电场储能配置优化方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(2):434-439.DUI Xiaowei,ZHU Guiping,LIU Yanzhang.Research on battery storage sizing for wind farm considering forecast error[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(2):434-439.
[18]MIRJALIL S,MIRJALIL S M,LEWIS A.Grey wolf optimizer[J].Advances in Engineering Software,2014,69:46-61.
[19]WOOD A J,WOLLENBERG B F.Power generation operation and control[M].New York:Wiley,1996.
[20]梅生伟,郭文涛,王莹莹,等.一类电力系统鲁棒优化问题的博弈模型及应用实例[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(19):47-56.MEI Shengwei,GUO Wentao,WANG Yingying,et al.Agame model for robust optimization of power systems and its application[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(19):47-56.